Never is all pretty as it seems
On the surface, the decision Bhumjaithai Party and its coalition partner may become kneeling. However, some observers believe that an eruption is on hold beneath.
Pheu Thai has been trying to undermine its largest partnership companion and popular Bhumjaithai numbers for some time.
One observer claims that the government is fraught with disdain despite Bhumjaithai head Anutin Charnvirakul’s repeated pledge to support Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the future no-confidence debate on Monday.
Critics claim that Pheu Thai’s campaign to use Bhumjaithai as its sole destination for the hapless censure debate may have cooled since the opposition announced Ms. Paetongtarn would be its target.
The spectator said Ms Paetongtarn being singled out is evidently indicative of the opponent’s perception the top is the government’s weakest link and that toppling her may enable a change of administration.
Who among the cabinet officials was the target of intense debate for months? Several brands were made, including the internal secretary and the deputy prime minister, Mr. Anutin.
At the same time, there was no let-up in Bhumjaithai taking a battering, starting with Mr Anutin, who found himself at the heart of an alleged area seize in Nakhon Ratchasima.
The Advisory Committee of the Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister’s Advisory Committee expanded its research into area invasion in the Pak Chong area near Khao Yai National Park last month.
That included the golf course owned by Mr. Anutin’s community, Rancho Charnvee Resort and Country Club.
Thanadol Suwannarit, an assistant to the crops and cooperatives secretary, said the staff inspected three websites in the area.
Rancho Charnvee was likewise visited by the council. Mr. Thanadol claimed that the land was legally obtained from the title deed, but he needs to check the timeframe to make sure it was done constitutionally and that some of the property is incorporated into the land reform area of the Agricultural Land Reform Office.
Mr Anutin insisted his consolidation of the beach area was above table and that he welcomed the investigation. He did, however, believe that the investigation may have been motivated by politics and that anyone who might be blatantly involved in the investigation is a fool.
The Kla Dharma Party, whose father, Capt Thamanat Prompow, was a prominent Pheu Thai legislator and has maintained close ties to the ruling group, governs the agriculture department. Kla Dharma broke away from the Palang Pracharath Party and became the latest member to visit the Paetongtarn management.
One group, according to the source, must demonstrate its “worth” and loyalty by participating in a particular activity in exchange for a larger share of the cabinet seats, in order for a theory that cannot be refuted.
The Department of Special Investigation’s ( DSI) investigation into alleged collusion in last year’s multi-tiered Senate elections has spooked the Senate, despite the fact that the Rancho Charnvee saga has not yet been settled. If such cooperation may be proven in a court of law, some lawmakers stand to lose their tickets.
Many of the lawmakers alleged to become “blue-affiliated” were at risk. Bhumjaithai is colored orange.
These lawmakers have taken jobs over contested congressional issues that are aligned to Bhumjaithai, but which are conflicting to Pheu Thai, such as law act and election bills.
Pheu Thai is naturally upset because Bhumjaithai continuously resonates with the blue senators, who claims the group has a sizable and growing majority in parliament.
The observer claimed it would not be shocking to anticipate powerful political repression of Bhumjaithai, which has now become the preferred party of many conservative voters who are impressed by his unwavering support for their political and social values.
The probe into the Senate elections has threatened to get the DSI in warm water for overstepping its level. The Council of State, the government’s legal shoulder, has also expressed doubts about the DS I’s role in the Senate surveys circumstance, as has the Election Commission asserted that it is the only power with regard to investigating election-related abnormalities.
Bhumjaithai also has a problem with the government considering whether to revoke the contract to host the MotoGP Grand Prix if the race is deemed uninvestment-worthy as the Rancho Charnvee scandal and the Senate poll investigation are far from conclusive.
The race has been held at Chang International Circuit in Buri Ram since 2018. The Bhumjaithai political center has long been in the northeastern province.
The government’s intention to discontinue its support of the MotoGP Grand Prix competition could devastate Newin Chidchob’s sporting empire, which has been hailed as the de facto ruler of Bhumjaithai.
However, Bhumjaithai’s fortunes could take a twist with the censure debate.
Concern is growing that the pressure from the opposition could overtake Ms. Paetongtarn in the debate. The coalition partners may be forced to decide whether to support her or cast a no-confidence vote against her if she leaves the grilling in poor shape.
If Ms Paetongtarn fails to win enough votes, her premiership will be over, and a new government will be formed, with Mr Anutin most probably coming across as a strong choice among the remaining PM candidates.
However, Mr. Anutin has pledged to support Ms. Paetongtarn. The pledge, according to the observer, would prevent the premier from getting the axe and could lead to Bhumjaithai’s problems fading and the party having the last laugh.
About to go head-to-head
Thaksin: Reverses the PP
After the name of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was omitted from the censure motion, the no-confidence debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is now all but certain.
Whether the debate would take place was uncertain as House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha had warned the opposition not to name an outsider if it wanted the censure debate to go ahead as planned.
Directly addressing an outsider would violate parliamentary meeting regulation No. 1, Wan, in his opinion. 176 and could subject him and other lawmakers to international defamation lawsuits.
In its original motion solely targeting Ms Paetongtarn, the main opposition People’s Party ( PP ) directly accused her father, Thaksin, of exerting influence over his daughter’s administration. In the updated motion, Thaskin’s name is swapped out for a more general term like” a family member.”
Thaksin has not wasted a moment attacking the PP outside of parliament.
When asked about the accusation that he is acting as a political puppet master, the alleged de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party shot back:” I must ask whether they]PP members ] have consulted the founder of the]now-dissolved ] Future Forward Party ( FFP ) before deciding to grill]the prime minister ] over this accusation”.
The Move Forward Party, which was the party’s heir apparent after its dissolution into the PP, was the FFP, which was founded in response to an illegal loan it obtained from its founder and leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
When asked for more details, Thaksin mentioned the PP’s recent victory in the provincial administrative organization election ( PAO ) in Lamphun, which made reference to Mr. Thanathorn’s participation in the election campaign.
Mr Thanathorn is now chairman of the Progressive Movement which has links with both the dissolved MFP and PP, whose candidate Weeradet Pupisit, became the party’s only victor in a PAO chairman election.
Observers claim that Thaksin’s remarks are not off-the-cuff and are intended to discredit the main opposition party by implying that Pheu Thai and the PP are not distinct from one another.
According to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer in political science at Burapha University, Thaksin’s message is quite clear that both parties are run by insiders, and that PP lawmakers should check with their own “real leader” first.
Since his return from self-exile abroad, Thaksin’s performance in leading the neo-conservative camp appears to have fallen short of expectations as he is unable to reduce the PP’s popularity and eliminate it as a threat to the conservative bloc, said the analyst.
Despite the support of coalition partners, former prime minister Srettha Thavisin and Ms. Paetongtarn have struggled to produce results, especially in opposition to the Bhumjaithai Party and its allies in the Senate.
Mr. Olarn praised Bhumjaithai, which is now led by Anutin Charnvirakul, a deputy prime minister and interior minister, as well as “blue faction” senators for their efforts to stop the 2017 constitution’s revision efforts.
Thaksin, therefore, has little choice but to” stage a public showdown” with the PP, he said, adding that the opposition party must also play its part. Additionally, the PP must portray the red camp, or Pheu Thai, as the greater threat in order for its own survival to survive.
Some 44 former MFP MPs who are currently employed by the PP are accused of supporting a proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code or the lese majeste law. The case is being reviewed by the National Anti-Corruption Commission ( NACC ) and if the court accepts the case, 25 current PP lawmakers could be suspended from parliamentary duty.
The PP must demonstrate its worth in order to avoid this fate, he said,” with that in mind.”
The analyst noted that the upcoming no-confidence debate is a difficult one for the PP. If the party’s grilling falls flat, it will only confirm speculation about the” Hong Kong deal”. A meeting allegedly took place in Hong Kong between powerful political figures who are portrayed as the realmovers behind Pheu Thai and MFP, according to the agreement.
According to reports, the meeting discussed the possibility of the Pheu Thai-led coalition’s conservative bloc being replaced if and when that bloc was to be abandoned.
” If the PP fails to deliver in the debate, it will add credibility to the rumoured deal between Thaksin and Mr Thanathorn in Hong Kong.
Anything less could support the claim of a backroom agreement, he said, and the opposition must give its best shot [in the censure debate].
Pheu Thai’s plan of attack is to engage both sides in a fight-and-make-up game with the opposition while maintaining its partnership with Bhumjaithai, which has close ties to the Senate.
So, the real burden falls on Thaksin whose political manoeuvring will decide both the Pheu Thai Party’s future and his daughter’s political fate.