“(China) is probably thinking, we don’t want to be seen as siding with Putin … (and) openly going against international law. So it is saying: ‘We’re the grown-ups. Let’s take it through the proper channels.’ And I think that’s a very subtle message,” he said.
Experts say China is also wary about the optics.
“The Chinese are not just thinking about their relationship with Moscow or their relationship with Washington. They also want to be careful about how other countries, especially those in the Indo-Pacific and Global South, receive China, and abstaining helps it (achieve) that,” said Muraviev from Curtin University.
VOTING PATTERNS: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE?
The Ukraine-backed resolution passed with 93 votes in favour, 18 against and 65 abstentions – underscoring a significant erosion in international support for Ukraine and in diplomatic condemnation of Moscow.
A similar vote in 2022 when the war first broke out saw 141 countries voting in favour, with only five against and 35 abstaining.
The steep drop in affirmative votes reflects growing divisions over the war, as well as shifting geopolitical calculations among UN member states, noted Reyes.
He further pointed out that some voting shifts appear directly linked to Washington’s change in stance from support to opposition.
This includes the US’ three freely associated states in the Pacific – the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau. Having voted in favour of the 2022 vote, this time they switched to abstaining or outright opposition.
The Trump administration, inaugurated in January, has repeatedly criticised Ukraine – accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of starting the war with Russia and labelling him a “dictator”. Trump has also pushed for peace negotiations with Moscow, with the initial meeting excluding Kyiv.
Observers also highlighted the pronounced increase in abstentions.
Several countries in South and Central America, including Argentina, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and Honduras, as well as African nations such as Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, and Zambia, all shifted their stance from supporting the 2022 resolution to abstaining in the latest vote.