Nine surprising facts about Indians in the US

Donald Trump has made large deportations of illegal foreign nationals a top coverage, with the US claiming to had identified about 18, 000 Indian immigrants who it believes entered improperly.

Narendra Modi declared last week that India may retaliate against the “human smuggling ecosystem” and return its citizens who were illegally entering the US.

” These are kids of quite ordinary people, and they are lured by big dreams and claims”, he said during his visit to Washington.

Now a new paper by Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur from Johns Hopkins University has shed light on the numbers, demographics, entry methods, locations and trends relating to undocumented Indians over time.

Here are some of the more impressive results.

Illegal immigrants make up 3 % of the US people and 22 % of the foreign-born people.

However, there are disputed estimates of the number of illegal Indians among them, with estimates varying significantly due to different analysis techniques.

Pew Research Center and Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) estimate some 700,000 people as of 2022, making them the third-largest group after Mexico and El Salvador.

In contrast, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) puts the figure at 375,000, ranking India fifth among origin countries.

Another picture can be provided by the Department of Homeland Security ( DHS) official government data, which lists 220, 000 unauthorised Indians in 2022.

The study argues that the vast differences in estimates show the uncertainty surrounding the correct dimension of the illegal American population.

Just a small portion of the US’s total illegal immigrant population is made up of Indians.

Almost one in four Indian immigrants in the US is undocumented, according to Pew and CMS quotes, which is improbable given migration patterns, according to the study. ( Hindu refugees are one of the fastest-growing teams in the US, surging from 600, 000 in 1990 to 3.2 million in 2022.)

The DHS estimated in 2022 that the unauthorized American people in the US dropped 60 % from its 2016 top, falling from 560, 000 to 220, 000.

How did the number of illegal Indians cut so dramatically between 2016 and 2022? Mr Kapur says the statistics doesn’t give a clear answer, but realistic theories could be that some obtained legal position while people returned, mainly due to COVID-related hardships.

However, this measure doesn’t indicate a 2023 boom in Indians at US territories, meaning the actual amount could now be higher.

Despite rising border crossings, the US government’s projections for the study show no discernible increase in the total number of undocumented Indians in the US between the US fiscal year ( FY ) 2020 and 2022.

Contacts refer to situations where non-citizens are stopped by US government as they attempt to cross the nation’s borders with Mexico or Canada.

Indians ‘ visa overstays have remained steady at 1.5 % since 2016.

The number of Indian recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals ( Daca ) has also declined from 2, 600 in 2017 to 1, 600 in 2024. Workers who were born in the US as kids are protected by the Daca program.

To sum up: the undocumented Indian population grew both in numbers and as a share of all unauthorised migrants, rising from 0.8 % in 1990 to 3.9 % in 2015 before dropping to 2 % in 2022.

The US has two major property borders.

The southern borders along the state of Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas bordering Mexico sees the most immigrant bridges. Then there’s the US-Canada borders stretching 11 states.

Before 2010, encounters involving Indians at the two edges were modest, not exceeding 1, 000.

Almost all Indian-related encounters have occurred along the US-Mexico southern border since 2010;

In FY 2024, encounters of Indian nationals on the northern border surged to 36 % of all Indian crossings, up from just 4 % the previous year.

With a shorter processing time for visitor visas than the US, Canada has become a more attainable access point for Indians.

Moreover, there was a boom in intended border crossings from 2021 forward, and the contacts at the Mexico border peaked in 2023.

” This is not specific to Indians. It is a piece of a larger wave of immigrants who attempted to enter the country after Biden won the election. It appears as though there was a great sea of workers, and Indians were a part of it, Mr. Kapur said.

The study finds that the states with the largest Indian immigrant populations -California ( 112, 000 ), Texas ( 61, 000 ), New Jersey ( 55, 000 ), New York ( 43, 000 ) and Illinois ( 31, 000 )- also have the highest numbers of unauthorised Indian immigrants.

In Ohio ( 16 % ), Michigan ( 14 % ), New Jersey ( 12 % ), and Pennsylvania ( 11 % ), Indians make up a significant portion of the total unauthorised population.

However, state where more than 20 % of Indian immigrants are illegal include Tennessee, Indiana, Georgia, Wisconsin and California.

We anticipate this because it makes it simpler for a Gujarati to get work for a Gujarati-American or a Punjabi-Sikh in a similar setup, according to Mr. Kapur.

People who are detained at the borders and who fear persecution in their home countries can go through legitimate “fear screenings” thanks to the US immigration program. As a result of rising border apprehensions and rising hospital applications, those who pass can apply for asylum in court.

Court information on spoken dialects provide some information, but administrative data doesn’t exactly show the demographics of American prison seekers.

Since 2001, Indian hospital claims have been dominated by Punjabi-speaking speakers from India. After Punjabi, Indian asylum seekers spoke Hindi ( 14 % ), English ( 8 % ) and Gujarati ( 7 % ).

In the years 2001-2020, they filed 66 % of asylum applications, which suggests that Punjab and Haryana are important migrant sources.

The highest percentage of Indian speakers applying for asylum, in addition to the highest rate, was for Punjabi speakers ( 58 % ), followed by Hindi speakers ( 58 % ). In comparison, only a third of Gujarati speakers ‘ cases were approved.

According to data collected by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ), Indian asylum requests in the US have soared.

The calls jumped threefold in just two decades, rising from about 5, 000 in 2021 to over 51, 000 in 2023.

While this rise is most serious in the US, similar styles are seen in Canada, the UK and Australia, where Indians are among the largest asylum-seeking organizations, the study says.

Because handling takes years, Mr. Kapur thinks this is primarily a way to “gamble” the prison system rather than have an objective fear of persecution.

Given the large number of Punjabi-speakers who seek asylum, it’s unclear what has changed in the northern Indian state ruled by the Congress party ( 2017-22 ) and latterly the Aam Aadmi Party ( 2022–present ) to drive this surge.

Under Trump’s next president, hospital calls are set to fall.

Within his first year, a key application for refugees was shut down and removed from software stores, cancelling almost 300, 000 pending appointments, including hospital cases already in progress.

According to US data, the majority of American asylum seekers are from Punjabi and Gujarati tribes from India’s wealthier states, where they are more likely to be able to pay high movement costs.

In contrast, the study finds that Indian Muslims, marginalized populations, and people from conflict-stricken areas like Kashmir and the areas affected by Maoist violence scarcely seek asylum.

But most American asylum applicants are economic workers, not from the country’s poorest or conflict-hit areas.

The lengthy journey to the US- whether via Latin America or as “fake” students in Canada- costs 30-100 times India’s per person income, making it accessible only to those with assets to market or pledge, the study says.

Not surprisingly, Punjab and Gujarat- top origin states for unauthorised Indians- are among India’s wealthier regions, where land values far exceed returns from farming.

” Even illegality takes a lot of money to pursue”, the study says.

While rising asylum claims may seem linked to “democratic backsliding” in India, correlation isn’t causation, the authors say .

Punjab and Gujarat have long histories of emigration, with migrants heading not just to the US but also the UK, Canada and Australia.

Remittances- India received an estimated$ 120bn in 2023- fuel aspirations for a better life, driven not by poverty but “relative deprivation”, as families seek to match the success of others abroad, the study says.

A competing industry of agents and brokers in India has capitalized on this need.

The Indian government, says the study, “has looked the other way, likely because the issue of illegal migration is much more a burden for receiving than sending countries”.

Between 2009 and 2024, around 16, 000 Indians were deported, according to India’s ministry of external affairs.

These deportations averaged 750 per year under Obama, 1, 550 under Trump’s first term, and 900 under Biden.

Indian migrant removals spiked between FY 2023 and 2024, but the peak was in 2020 with nearly 2, 300 deportations.