In 2025, assets are anticipated to increase significantly.
Tourism, which is a major contributor to rise, will continue to be a major driver of progress in Citi Thailand until 2025, thanks to private assets from both the public and private businesses.
The bank projects that Thailand’s GDP growth will reach 3.2 % in 2025, up from the 2.7 % forecast for 2024.
At the Bangkok Post Dinner Speak 2024, Nalin Chutchotitham, Director– Thailand and Philippines Economist, said that this optimistic outlook is influenced by a number of factors, most notably the ongoing support from governmental budget disbursements this year, which will help maintain economic momentum into the coming year.
With this scenario, the bank projects Thailand’s private investment growth rate to be 4.4 % in 2025, a significant recovery from the 1.8 % contraction forecast for 2024. The Board of Investment ( BoI )’s approval of investment applications between 2023 and 2024 is anticipated to contribute to the higher growth.
” Thailand’s expense outlook does present forward momentum. The value of BoI-approved investments in 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024 remains powerful, supporting further recognized investments, especially in online sectors such as data centres, energy vehicle-related industries, and electronics”, Ms Nalin said.
Public investment growth is also expected to rise to 2.9 % next year, compared to 1.6 % this year. This follows delayed resources payouts in 2023–2024, which postponed system job opportunities. However, with the 2025 governmental budget approved on deadline, investment is expected to ramp up next year.
Meanwhile, government consumption is projected to grow by 3.1 % in 2025, up from 2.7 % this year, while private consumption growth is expected to slow to 3.5 % from 4.4 %. Although personal consumption has rebounded, Ms. Nalin said the treatment has been disjointed across all industries.
Solid jobs in the service industry continues to support home income and spending, according to Ms. Nalin. However, the production industry, especially car, remains affected by the unequal recovery, leading to slow car sales amid the country’s great household debt.
She added that the tourism industry will continue to be a key driver of economic growth following year, with foreign visitors expected to rise to 41 million from the 36.55 million expected for 2024. However, paying by foreign visitors has declined, primarily due to changing behavior.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s goods exports in US dollar terms are expected to grow at a slower pace of 2.8 % in 2025, compared to 4.6 % in 2024. A softer growth is attributed to increased international uncertainty, especially a sluggishness in international trade as a result of rising tensions between the US and China, as well as potential tax increases under Donald Trump’s administration.
She added that probable spillover effects, such as comprehensive tariffs on China and important emerging economies, could be caused by the disconnection of the US and China’s industry and tech supply chains. As a result, higher risks are expected in the coming year, Ms Nalin noted.
Additionally, Ms. Nalin anticipates that the Bank of Thailand ( BoT ) will maintain its current neutral monetary policy position to protect policy space and promote household debt deleveraging. If the financial recuperation is significantly below what the BoT’s Monetary Policy Committee anticipates, Citi Thailand will start lowering the policy rate by 0.25 percent positions in the first third of 2025.
The Thai GDP growth rate is anticipated to remain around 3 % over the medium term. We anticipate more improvement in the implementation of reforms that aim to increase the country’s competitiveness and fiscal revenues, such as improvements to business simplicity and extra fiscal reforms, according to Ms. Nalin.