Beliefs emerged about how the biggest party’s upcoming general election will be held in three years after the Sept. 15 by-election in Phitsanulok.
The main opposition People’s Party ( PP ), which fought tooth and nail to defend its turf, had a lot of hope riding on the result.
In recent surveys, the celebration has suffered a number of setbacks, both at the local and national levels. Prior to its dissolution on Aug 7, the Move Forward Party, the PP’s predecessor, failed to capture the Provincial Administrative Organisation ( PAO ) chairman seat in Ayutthaya. A competitor with a strong, established support system in the ancient capital defeated it.
Soon after that, neighbouring Pathum Thani held its PAO chair election. Given that one member from the judgement Pheu Thai Party and the other from a local political party that previously enjoyed close relationships to previous premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is well-respected by Pheu Thai, had a slim chance of winning, the MFP would have had little chance of winning.
The PP has replaced the MFP and is now the MFP MPs ‘ fresh residence since the Constitutional Court disbanded it for trying to overthrow the king.
Ratchaburi hosted the first PP president race of its kind.
The PP was assured of winning the native poll, declaring it would be the side’s “revenge” triumph and a stubborn display of its remarkable resilience. After all, the Future Forward Party, the MFP’s president, was likewise disbanded by the Constitutional Court for accepting an illegitimate product from its president, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, back in February 2020.
For the PAO surveys, PP luminaries including previous MFP head Pita Limjaroenrat went door-to-door to campaign. Additionally, Mr. Thanathorn rousingly addressed audience members at battle gatherings.
An observer said it would not be off the level to claim that the PP was pulling out all the halts to raise its popularity in Ratchaburi, including trying to win some unpopular followers among the yellow-shirt honest who were staunch supporters of the party for their effort to amend, if not remove, Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the der guess rules.
Ratchaburi is known for having a large turnout for liberal voters, which made it viewed as a difficult nut to crack.
As it turned out, the PP lost in the PAO surveys, prompting the group to appear to the next challenge, this time a by-election in Phitsanulok.
According to the spectator, this was an election the PP could never afford to lose.
The by-election in Constituency 1, encompassing city places, was to complete a position left by Padipat Santipada.
In the previous year’s general election, Mr. Padipat won the couch, but he lost because of the Constitutional Court’s ruling on August 7 that ended the MFP. On national security grounds and under the guise of national security, the courtroom forbade 11 professional members, including Mr. Padipat, from politics for ten years.
Before his eviction, Mr. Padipat had served on the MFP table as a way to preserve his MP status as he transitioned to a less well-known Fair Party. Additionally, his expulsion made it possible for him to be a deputy speaker of the House, anything that would not have been possible had he remained in the MFP, which was in the criticism.
A part of the main opposition party is prohibited from serving as either a House speech or a deputy House speech.
The Phitsanulok by-election dealt a blow to the PP as its candidate, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak was beaten by a Pheu Thai player, Jadet Jantar, in a ferociously contested, two-horse war.
The unofficial effect revealed Mr Jadet received 37, 209 seats, back of Mr Nathachanon’s 30, 640.
Voter turnout was 54 % of 138, 705 eligible voters, with 67, 849 valid ballots cast and 1, 108 dud ballots.
The spectator said the poll result, despite being less than welcoming for the PP, was very telling. The election’s low turnout resulted in a nearly 20 % cut from the previous year’s general election, which was primarily attributable to the absence of an advance election square and registered voters who worked or resided in other regions, most notably Bangkok, who did not travel back to Phitsanulok to cast ballots.
In the poll conducted last year, a sizable portion of improve voters had chosen the MFP. If they had returned on September 15 to cast their ballots, they might have had a significant impact on the outcome.
Additionally, the count of votes demonstrated that the PP won in most metropolitan areas but lost in some regions not directly related to the city. This demonstrates the PP’s tenacity in keeping its conventional voter base intact, which is important for the district.
Nevertheless, it may not have done brilliantly also in augmenting its supremacy beyond its heartlands.
The PP will most likely battle to win more than 250 seats, exceeding the lot level that may allow it to form a government piano, if it continues to fall behind in the next election three years from now. It will also make it difficult to force its parliamentary goals, including the revision of Segment 112, which is extremely sensitive.
Is it two or one lot?
Anutin: Adopts Prayut’s ‘ advantages’
Although the regime-appointed Senate has gone and its leader has taken its place, attempts to modify the coup-sponsored 2017 contract are expected to face the same barriers, according to spectators.
The hurdles facing the bill to change the dual majority need for policy article polls are widely accepted as a clear sign that any attempt to change the constitution or even make changes section by section will be anything but a walk in the park, they said.
The double majority refers to two conditions that must be met before a referendum result can be deemed binding by Section 13 of the Referendum Act. First, more than 50 % of eligible voters must have taken part in the referendum, and the majority of those who cast their ballots must approve it.
Politicians have criticized the rule, which sets the bar high for referendums, challenges it to pass within the required number, and stalls much-needed charter reforms.
The House of Representatives changed the section to replace this requirement with a single majority, which would mean that a referendum only needs more than half the votes cast by electorates who turn out.
The Senate voted 179 to 5, with three abstentions, to pass the bill in its first reading, with some senators voicing opposition. However, the Senate voted 164-21 with nine abstentions in the final reading early this week to keep the double majority requirement.
A joint House-Senate committee will likely be established to sort out differences of opinion between MPs and senators and determine the required majority to pass a referendum in the wake of the Senate’s decision.
It might also delay the completion of one, which is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 2rd, the same day as the provincial administrative organization elections.
Returning to the double majority rule, in the opinion of Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, reveals that the majority of senators are not in favor of a charter amendment.
The Senate’s move also suggests that Bhumjaithai’s alleged de facto leader, Newin Chidchob, may be avoiding ruffling feathers with the old power clique and is unlikely to push for changes that could disrupt the status quo, he said.
According to many observers, the Upper House is now dominated by senators believed to have links to Bhumjaithai. The so-called “blue” bloc, a reference to Bhumjaithai, is said to be the largest by far of the three factions in the new Senate, with at least 150 senators in this group. The chamber is made up of 200 members.
” The Senate’s vote on the referendum bill is likely to close the door on charter amendment”, said Mr Thanaporn.
He claimed that the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s proposal to amend Section 160 of the Constitution to address ethics for political officeholders wo n’t gain any support given the Senate’s decision regarding the referendum bill.
Section 160 lays out the requirements for those who want to work as ministers and states that they must be glaringly honest and have not committed any serious ethical violations.
However, the ruling party has already abandoned the proposal, which faced strong opposition from several coalition partners, including Bhumjaithai, the second-largest party in the coalition government.
The fundamental tenets of the coup-sponsored 2017 charter, in the opinion of Mr. Thanaporn, include giving independent public authorities like the National Anti Corruption Commission ( NACC ) and the Constitutional Court the authority to keep politicians in check.
The Senate, meanwhile, is empowered to select members of these bodies, and it is now allegedly heavily affiliated with Bhumjaithai.
With 500 MPs in the Lower House, no political party has complete control. No party can successfully push for charter amendments without Mr Newin’s blessing”, he said.
The Senate’s support is crucial because charter changes require support from at least one-third of the Senate, or 67 votes, to pass.
” Political parties seeking a shift, regardless of their camp, must have control of the Senate. Pheu Thai and the People’s Party have already missed the chance”, he said.
He cited the findings of a quarterly poll by the National Institute of Development Administration ( Nida ), which showed that while Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra topped the list with 31 % of votes, second place was unoccupied.
According to Mr. Thanaporn, 23 % of those who were undecided were looking for someone who resembled former prime minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, and he also reaffirmed that Gen Prayut’s co-founded UTN Party as a party-list candidate.
In the Bhumjaithai Party’s general election of last year, the UTN won 13 party list seats, compared to three that were taken by the Bhumjaithai Party.
The analyst claims that Bhumjaithai has a conservative stance and has opposed all legislative changes, including blanket amnesty and changes to ethical standards for political office holders.
He added that Gen Prayut’s stance is roughly the same as the coalition party’s, and that Anutin Charnvirakul, Bhumjaithai Party leader, has adopted his” strengths.”
He has demonstrated Gen Prayut’s qualities in him, he said, “whether it is constitutional amendment issues or decisive action against inactive provincial governors.”
In the upcoming three-year polls, Bhumjaithai’s perceived similarity to Gen Prayut might be advantageous.