Things do n’t bode well
Beliefs about how the next general election will be held by the largest group in three decades started to emerge after the Sept. 15 by-election in Phitsanulok.
The main opposition People’s Party ( PP ), which fought tooth and nail to defend its turf, had a lot of hope riding on the result.
In recent elections, both at the local and national levels, the group has suffered a number of setbacks. Prior to its dissolution on Aug 7, the Move Forward Party, the PP’s predecessor, failed to capture the Provincial Administrative Organisation ( PAO ) chairman seat in Ayutthaya. It was defeated by a competitor who had a strong, established help system in the ancient capital.
Soon after that, neighbouring Pathum Thani held its PAO chair election. Given that one member from the judgement Pheu Thai Party and the other from a local political party that previously enjoyed close relationships to past premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is well-respected by Pheu Thai, had a slim chance of winning, the MFP would have had little chance of winning.
The PP has replaced the MFP and is the new house for MFP MPs since the Constitutional Court disbanded it for trying to subvert the constitutional king.
Ratchaburi hosted the first PP chair race of its kind.
The PP was assured of winning the regional poll, declaring it would be the side’s “revenge” triumph and a stubborn display of its remarkable resilience. After all, the Future Forward Party, the MFP’s president, was likewise disbanded by the Constitutional Court for accepting an illegitimate product from its president, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, back in February 2020.
PP luminaries, including former MFP chief Pita Limjaroenrat, who knocked on doors to ask voters, were on hand to support the PAO surveys. At campaign demonstrations, Mr. Thanathorn even roused the audience.
An spectator said it would not be offensive to claim that the PP was pulling out all the stops to raise its popularity in Ratchaburi, including trying to win some unpopular followers among the yellow-shirt honest who were staunch adherents of the party’s campaign to alter, if not to remove, Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the der majoreste rules.
Ratchaburi has a huge following of liberal voters, and was perceived as a difficult seed to break for the PP.
As it turned out, the PP lost in the PAO surveys, prompting the group to appear to the next challenge, this time a by-election in Phitsanulok.
According to the spectator, this was an election that the PP was not afford to lose.
The by-election in Constituency 1, encompassing city places, was to complete a position left by Padipat Santipada.
In the previous month’s general election, Mr. Padipat won the chair but lost it as a result of the ruling on August 7 that sent the MFP to its brink. On national security grounds and under the presumption that the group was a threat to the constitutional monarchy, the judge removed 11 executive members, including Mr. Padipat, from politics for ten years.
Before his expulsion, Mr. Padipat had served on the MFP table as a way to preserve his MP position as he transitioned to a less well-known Fair Party. Additionally, his expulsion made it possible for him to be a deputy speaker of the House, something that would not have been possible had he remained in the MFP, which was in the criticism.
A part of the main opposition party is prohibited from speaking in the House or as a deputy listener.
The Phitsanulok by-election dealt a blow to the PP as its candidate, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak was beaten by a Pheu Thai player, Jadet Jantar, in a ferociously contested, two-horse war.
The unofficial effect revealed Mr Jadet received 37, 209 seats, back of Mr Nathachanon’s 30, 640.
Voter turnout was 54 % of 138, 705 eligible voters, with 67, 849 valid ballots cast and 1, 108 dud ballots.
The watcher said the poll result, despite being less than welcoming for the PP, was very telling. The low turnout for the general election last year showed a drop of almost 20 %, which was primarily attributable to a lack of an advance voting round and registered voters who worked or resided in other regions, most notably Bangkok, who did not travel back to Phitsanulok to cast ballots.
In the poll conducted last year, a significant amount of progress voters had chosen the MFP. They may have significantly impacted the goal if they had returned on September 15 to cast their ballots.
Additionally, the vote count demonstrated that the PP won at the majority of polling locations in urban locations but lost in areas other than the capital. This demonstrates the PP’s tenacity in keeping its standard voter base intact, which is important in the district.
Nevertheless, it may not have done brilliantly also in augmenting its supremacy beyond its heartlands.
If the PP continues to struggle to win more seats in the coming election, it will most likely challenge to do so in the absence of a lot that do allow it to form a government guitar. It will also make it difficult to force its parliamentary goals, including the revision of Segment 112, which is extremely sensitive.
Is it two or one lot?
Anutin: Adopts Prayut’s ‘ capabilities’
Although the regime-appointed Senate has gone and its leader has taken its place, attempts to modify the coup-sponsored 2017 contract are expected to face the same barriers, according to spectators.
The hurdles facing the bill to change the dual majority need for policy article elections are widely accepted as a clear sign that any attempt to change the constitution or even make changes section by section will be anything but a walk in the park, they said.
The double majority refers to two conditions that must be met before a referendum result can be deemed binding by Section 13 of the Referendum Act. First, more than 50 % of eligible voters must have taken part in the referendum, and the majority of those who cast their ballots must approve it.
However, the rule has drawn criticism from politicians because it raises the bar for referendums, makes it challenging to meet the required minimum threshold for approval, and prevents much-needed charter reforms.
This rule was replaced by a single majority in the House of Representatives ‘ amendment, which stipulated that a referendum only needed more than half of the votes cast by electorates.
The Senate voted 179 to 5, with three abstentions, to pass the bill in its first reading, with some senators voicing opposition. However, the Senate retained the double majority requirement in the final reading at the beginning of the week, voting 164-21 with nine abstentions.
A joint House-Senate committee will likely be formed in the wake of the Senate’s decision to sort out differences of opinion between MPs and senators and determine the size of the majority required to pass a referendum.
It might also delay the completion of one, which is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 2rd, the same day as the provincial administrative organization elections.
Returning to the double majority rule, in the opinion of Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, indicates that the majority of senators are not in favor of charter amendment.
The Senate’s move also suggests that Bhumjaithai’s alleged de facto leader, Newin Chidchob, may be avoiding ruffling feathers with the old power clique and is unlikely to push for changes that could disrupt the status quo, he said.
According to many observers, the Upper House is now dominated by senators believed to have links to Bhumjaithai. The so-called “blue” bloc, a reference to Bhumjaithai, is said to be the largest by far of the three factions in the new Senate, with at least 150 senators in this group. The chamber is made up of 200 members.
” The Senate’s vote on the referendum bill is likely to close the door on charter amendment”, said Mr Thanaporn.
He claimed that the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s proposal to amend Section 160 of the charter that deals with ethics for political officeholders will not receive its support given the Senate’s decision regarding the referendum bill.
Section 160 lays out the requirements for those who want to work as ministers and states that they must be glaringly honest and have not committed any serious ethical violations.
However, the ruling party has already abandoned the proposal, which attracted strong opposition from several coalition partners, including Bhumjaithai, the second-largest party in the coalition government.
According to Mr. Thanaporn, the fundamental tenets of the coup-sponsored 2017 charter include giving independent public authorities, such as the National Anti Corruption Commission ( NACC ) and the Constitutional Court, the authority to regulate politicians.
The Senate, meanwhile, is empowered to select members of these bodies, and it is now allegedly heavily affiliated with Bhumjaithai.
No political party has 500 MPs in total control of the Lower House. No party can successfully push for charter amendments without Mr Newin’s blessing”, he said.
The Senate’s support is crucial because charter changes require support from at least one-third of the Senate, or 67 votes, to pass.
” Political parties seeking a shift, regardless of their camp, must have control of the Senate. Pheu Thai and the People’s Party have already missed the chance”, he said.
He cited the findings of a quarterly poll by the National Institute of Development Administration ( Nida ), which showed that while Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra topped the list with 31 % of votes, second place was unoccupied.
Mr. Thanaporn noted that he believed Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, the group that 23 % of the undecided were looking for, and that Gen Prayut also cast his party-list vote for the United Thai Nation ( UTN) Party, which Gen Prayut co-founded.
In the Bhumjaithai Party’s general election of last year, the UTN won 13 party list seats, compared to three that the party had previously won.
The analyst claims that Bhumjaithai has a conservative stance and has opposed all legislative changes, including blanket amnesty and changes to ethical standards for political office holders.
He added that Gen Prayut’s stance is roughly the same as the coalition party’s, and that Anutin Charnvirakul, Bhumjaithai Party leader, has adopted his” strengths.”
He has demonstrated Gen Prayut’s strengths in him, he said, whether it is charter amendment issues or decisive action against provincial governors who are inactive.
In the upcoming three-year polls, Bhumjaithai’s perceived similarity to Gen Prayut might be advantageous.