On a wild honk chase

On a wild honk chase

The car honking incident involving a royal motorcade early last month could prompt a search for people believed to have bankrolled the honker.

According to analysts, there is a misguided belief that offenders were paid to stir up trouble and that the best remedy for the problem is to go after whoever is pulling the strings.

However, such thinking is rather simplistic, to say the least, and does not mirror reality, a political activist says.

In a clip shared on social media, Tantawan Tuatulanon and her fellow Thalu Wang protest group member Natthanon Chaimahabud honked their car horn at the motorcade of HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn on a Bangkok expressway on Feb 4.

When confronted by a police officer, the pair objected, somewhat aggressively, to what they described as the entire road being sealed off to make way for the motorcade. However, the authorities insisted no road was blocked off to traffic at the time.

It caused a public outcry, and both Ms Tantawan and Mr Natthanon were apprehended on Feb 13 on charges of sedition and related offences for attempting to interrupt a royal motorcade.

Ms Tantawan was charged with inciting unrest or sedition in violation of Section 116 of the Criminal Code and the Computer Crime Act. Mr Natthanon faces five charges, including violating Section 116, the Computer Crime Act, honking a car horn in violation of the Traffic Act and insulting officers.

Deputy Interior Minister Chada Thaiset condemned the pair’s actions and accused them of embellishing facts as the motorcade was not affecting traffic.

The pair deliberately tried cause a scene and decided to honk their car horn when they could have used other lanes since the motorcade was not taking up the entire road.

The deputy minister slammed their behaviour as out of place and intolerable, adding what they did was “disturbing and an ungrateful act towards the nation”.

Mr Chada also said being rogue was nothing to brag about. He said a coordinated campaign to chisel away at the monarchy as a pillar institution had gone on long enough and was driving people mad.

The Bhumjaithai Party politician was apparently drawing attention to the campaign being waged to rewrite or abolish Section 112 of the Criminal Code — the lese majeste law — which offers legal protection to the monarch as head of state.

“The [anti-monarchy] movement is alive and well,” he said, adding it was high time the general public woke up to this threat to society.

He has observed that the movement, mostly driven by youth groups, has gained traction in the past four years.

“Young people may have acted out of spontaneity. But the crux of the problem has to do with the puppet masters at play,” he said.

Mr Chada claimed certain masterminds were secretly bankrolling the movement and securing bail for the young offenders.

“Nothing happens by chance. This [movement] was coordinated and organised,” he said.

The deputy minister said some MPs have kept a financial lifeline going for the youths. “If anyone wants to know their identities, I’ll share the information soon enough,” he said.

Reacting to Mr Chada’s remarks, was Chaithawat Tulathon, leader of the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), who is accused of cosying up to the anti-monarchy movement. Several of the party’s MPs, past and present, were known to have used their positions to obtain bail for many youth protesters.

Mr Chaithawat called for the accusers to back up their allegation that the MFP is pulling the movement’s strings with evidence.

Analysts say it may be off the mark to say youth groups were hired to cause disturbances or to assume they do not have a mind of their own.

They noted that political parties may not necessarily pay anyone to get things done. In fact, parties need only to attract followers with a set of beliefs which delivers a far more discreet, longer-lasting and more budget-friendly result in spurring someone into action.

Going for the mind works a lot more effectively to build up an army of followers than spending money to recruit them, they said.

So which PM is in charge?

A recent poll reflects how paroled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra continues to cast a long shadow over politics, with many seeing him wielding significant influence over the Pheu Thai Party-led government, according to observers.

Asked who they considered the most influential political figure, 42.9% of the 1,310 people surveyed by Nida Poll named Thaksin, 21.9% picked Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, and 17.4% chose Move Forward Party (MFP) chief adviser Pita Limjaroenrat.

Following his release in late February, all attention has shifted to Thaksin, resulting in a situation known as the “double prime minister” phenomenon.

With speculation about a cabinet reshuffle intensifying, any changes to the Pheu Thai-led cabinet will be effectively handled by Thaksin, not Mr Srettha, according to observers.

No Pheu Thai members will approach Mr Srettha to discuss a cabinet shake-up despite his asserting that he is the one and only prime minister.

Observers believe a cabinet rejig is imminent because the Srettha government has been less than effective in running the affairs of state in the eyes of many critics.

Apart from making speeches and travelling abroad, the prime minister has little to show from his time in office. The government’s bill to borrow 500 billion baht to finance Pheu Thai’s flagship digital wallet handout scheme is in limbo, with the rollout postponed yet again until after May.

All this is affecting the party’s popularity, but whether a cabinet reshuffle can make a difference is anybody’s guess, especially if the incoming ministers are awarded portfolios as a political favour and lack the courage to independently make decisions and initiate policies, according to observers.

Several finance-related bills proposed by coalition partners and opposition parties are still awaiting the prime minister’s signature before they are forwarded to the House of Representatives.

“The prime minister shows no confidence in signing any of the bills. More than 30 bills are stuck there. He has no confidence because he has no idea if any of them will have repercussions [on him] if they are approved by him.

“A reshuffle may offer a good diversion from this sticky situation,” said Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration.

The perfect timing for a cabinet shake-up would be after either the general debate sought by the Senate or the passage of the budget bill for the 2024 fiscal year, said the analyst who reckons it will likely be just a rotation of jobs, with loyalty and connections being prime factors in determining who retains or loses their post.

Those likely to face removal are Public Health Minister Dr Cholnan Srikaew and Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang, who do not hold political clout in the ruling party. It is believed they were appointed out of loyalty, and now it is likely that others will be given the opportunity to take over from them.

Culture Minister Sermsak Pongpanich and Minister Attached to PM’s Office Puangpetch Chunla-ead may also face removal for underperforming. Tourism and Sports Minister Sudawan Wangsupakijkosol, however, is likely to retain her position due to her family’s solid political base in Nakhon Ratchasima, despite being widely seen as another underperformer.

According to Mr Phichai, Mr Srettha should step down as finance minister and allow someone else to take over.

Mr Srettha must have realised he is not qualified for the position but has no choice but to take on dual responsibilities. If he remains as finance minister it could indicate that there are no qualified individuals interested in the job, and those who do want it are not supported by party heavyweights, he said.

Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai should also vacate his post because he has not delivered, he said. Mr Phumtham, viewed as Thaksin’s right hand man, is said to have set his sights on the interior portfolio currently in the hands of coalition partner the Bhumjaithai Party.

However, there is a slim chance Mr Phumtham, who is also a deputy prime minister, will become interior minister because Pheu Thai must trade an A-grade ministry with Bhumjaithai. The coalition partner is likely to aim for the Transport Ministry, currently headed by Suriya Jungrungreangkit, another Pheu Thai bigwig. Inter-party swaps are not common and are hard to negotiate.

If a cabinet rejig happens as speculated, the ruling party is expected to focus primarily on reorganising its own ranks. Pheu Thai will have its work cut out searching for individuals who can garner public support and enthusiasm for the party.

“While the initial excitement generated by these changes may diminish over time, this reshuffle is something the government desperately needs,” said the academic.