Political pundits predict that three Constitution Court decisions this quarter and the possible release of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in February may have a significant impact on the nation’s political scenery for months to come. The year has off to an amazing start.
Saksayam Chidchob, secretary-general of the Bhumjaithai Party, is accused of hiding assets and using a candidate to conceal possession of an organization that won numerous government construction projects. The court is expected to rule on this case on January 17.
When the situation was accepted by the court on March 3 of last year, Mr. Saksayam, a former transport secretary, was removed from his position as secretary. Following the opposition’s grilling of him over the alleged use of a candidate to hold shares in an upcoming censure discussion in July 2022, some opposition Members asked the court to act on his position.
Pita Limjaroenrat, a former leader of the Move Forward Party ( MFP), is scheduled to be decided by the court on January 24. He is currently the main opposition party’s advisory chairman.
Until the court rules on his internet shareholding in a media company, he is barred from performing his MP responsibilities. Mr. Pita does gain his MP position if the court determines that he ran for office while aware of his ownership of shares in the now-defunct broadcaster iTV.
The judge will then act on a case that could possibly result in the MFP’s dissolution on January 31. The MFP’s approach to Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the der guess law, is being questioned by the court regarding whether it attempted to topple the constitutional monarchy.
Pita’s situation is more serious than his.
In Mr. Saksayam’s event, observers claim that if the court rules against him, it will have an impact on the Bhumjaithai Party, which is currently the second-largest coalition group.
Mr. Saksayam, the group’s secretary-general, is one of its most powerful figures, and if he loses, it may be necessary to change its technique by changing the inner dynamics and power structures of the group.
According to spectators, the decision in Mr. Pita’s advertising share-holding situation may have far-reaching ramifications that go beyond just his own political career.
If the judge laws against the original MFP head, Stithorn Thananithichot, an analyst at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, warned the Bangkok Post that it might also compel those in authority to reevaluate their political methods.
The opposition group will need to choose a new leader for the upcoming general election if Mr. Pita loses his MP reputation. He acknowledged that it might be challenging to find one as well-liked as Mr. Pita.
After the Future Forward Party was dissolved for accepting 191.2 million ringgit from an illegal origin and its chief Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, who is now the president of the Progressive Movement, was given a social restrictions, Mr. Pita rose to the position of party chief.
Under Mr. Pita’s leadership, the MFP grew stronger rather than weaker, and it easily won the general election in May of last year. The group received 152 House seats and up to 14 million seats.
Mr. Stithorn speculates that Mr Pita’s reputation may have also peaked, and if he enters elections once more, it will be simpler for rivals to predict his next move.
Eyes on the liberal head, Stithorn
However, if Mr. Pita is absent, the MFP’s adversaries will probably encounter confusion and risk when dealing with a new chief. He noted that it is more difficult to make plans when they are unsure of the candidate for the position.
Regarding the MFP case, observers tend to concur that it wo n’t lead to the dissolution of the party and that, in the event that the court renders a negative decision, it might only order the policy to be abandoned.
Theerayut Suwankesorn, who brought the case before the court, claimed last month that his complaint did not request the dissolution of the group. The complaint sought to force the group to stop acting in a way that might offend the king.
Thaksin’s end
All eyes will be on Thaksin in February to determine whether he will gain from the Department of Corrections ‘ ( DOC ) regulation, which permits the detention of prisoners outside of prison.
After 15 times of self-imposed captivity, Thaksin, 74, who is well-liked by the ruling Pheu Thai Party, returned to Thailand on August 22 of last year and was given an eight-year prison term.
Nevertheless, he spent that evening at the Police General Hospital after being transported it from Bangkok Remand Prison for medical reasons. He has since stayed it with a number of illnesses. A royal forgive was given to him, reducing his sentence to a time in jail.
The DoC and the government denied the DOC’s say that the legislation was revived specifically to assist Thaksin in avoiding serving out his remaining term. Thaksin appears to meet the requirements for early release, which state that those who qualify may become serving one-third of their word and the jail term cannot be longer than four years.
Even though he has n’t spent a day behind bars, the former premier will have served one-third of his commuted one year in prison by the time February rolls around.
There is also widespread speculation that the DoC’s rules will persuade his younger girl and ex-prime secretary Yingluck Shinawatra to think about leaving his self-imposed exile.
Yingluck, 56, was given a five-year prison term on the cost of neglecting his duties while participating in the rice-pledging program, which resulted in losses totaling at least 500 billion rmb, some of which were caused by corruption. She was just cleared of misconduct, though, for the 2011 transfer of Thawil Pliensri, the secretary-general of the National Security Council at the time.
Legal expert and former deputy prime minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said last month that while Yingluck could ask for a royal forgive like her brother, she would first need to go back to Thailand and deal with the legal structure there. Typically speaking, observers believe that she will probably act similarly to her brother.
Political scientist Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket from the National Institute of Development Administration ( Nida ) claimed that Thaksin’s alleged VIP medical care outside of prison and eagerly anticipated release in February have rendered the Pheu Thai Party a sitting duck.
According to Mr. Phichai, the ruling party is attempting to avoid being directly involved in the controversy by appointing Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga to oversee the Ministry of Justice ( MoJ), which was previously overseen by Somsak Thepsutin.
He claimed that the nomination of Mr. Pirapan, a part of another party, to oversee the MoJ has strengthened rumors that Thaksin is meddling in secret affairs while the party does not want to appear to be acting in the interests of one specific person or its own.
” Mr. Pirapan must take into account the political reality of his party and its chances in the upcoming polls, even though he does n’t have the same ties to Thaksin as Mr. Somsak.” He suggested that his group might be more inclined to support Pheu Thai.
Pheu Thai is a sitting bird, says Phichai.
additional important focus details
The ruling party’s top priorities this year are the 10, 000 bass digital pocket scheme and contract rewrite, which are expected to rule the political landscape.
The Pheu Thai Party will have its hands tied with the digital wallet program and contract article in March and April, according to Jade Donavanik, a legal expert and former adviser to the charter writing panel.
All Thais 16 years of age and older who earn less than 70, 000 ringgit per month and have fewer than 500, 00 bank deposits are eligible to participate in the modern wallet plan, which aims to distribute 10,000 Baht to them.
Its application is still a mystery despite being estimated to cost 500 billion ringgit and being scheduled for release in May. The Council of State is looking into the legality of the government’s plan to apply for loans to finance the system.
The policy act is still up for debate because a vote is necessary to draft an entire document. According to him, the government has not yet decided how many elections on the contract amendment will be held or what the questions would be.
When the military-appointed Senate’s term expires in May, another significant growth is expected to take place, according to Mr. Jade.
200 members of the new Senate may be chosen from a variety of social and professional organizations. Cross-voting will be used to reduce stop votes and candidate collusion during the district, municipal, and federal levels of the elections.
The process, according to Mr. Jade, is meant to prevent politicians from interfering with the process, but it is unclear how successful it will be in preventing parties from influencing or ensuring a Senate that is truly independent and official.
Jade: Fixing the stasis charter