It’s finally over. Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang has decided to torpedo the acquisition of the submarine, the fate of which has hung by a thread for years.
But his decision to pull the plug and what he plans to do next promises to be just as, if not more, controversial.
The plan to commission a submarine was doomed to failure, ironically, even when it was thought it would happen under the previous Prayut Chan-o-cha administration, which gave the project its solid backing amid relentless criticism from the opposition led by Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party.
Criticism that the project was a white elephant was spurred not so much by the huge price tag of 16 billion baht but rather by the three-year pandemic crisis that plunged the country into a financial abyss in 2019, two years after the submarine project began.
The MFP was noted for its sustained attacks on the submarine purchase from China. Among the criticisms trumpeted by the party was that it was a wasteful splurging of the national budget, which could have been better spent lifting national education quality and other socially worthy causes.
Also, submarines, according to the critics, will not work effectively in maintaining our national maritime defence, given the shallow depth of Thai seas.
A target of a barrage of disapproval fanned by the opposition, the navy retreated and made a concession by offering to put on hold instalments for the sub.
Thailand formally signed an agreement to buy the S26T Yuan Class submarine from China in May 2017 after the cabinet gave the project the go-ahead.
The payment had been agreed to be spread over a seven-year period, with the first instalment of 700 million baht made in 2017.
The navy, after further talks with the Chinese military top brass, agreed to a three-submarine package worth a total combined cost of 36 billion baht to be paid in 11 annual instalments.
However, procurement of the two additional submarines, valued at 22.5 billion baht, was delayed for four years and is in limbo due to financial constraints following the pandemic.
The instalments for the first sub during the pandemic-stricken years were also shelved.
With its back against the wall, the navy said in November last year that it was prepared to drop the submarine deal with China if the conditions for the procurement were not met.
The navy had intended to install a German-made engine in the S26T Yuan-class submarine. However, the plan needed revision after Germany refused to have its engines fitted with Chinese military hardware.
China suggested the submarine be fitted with a Chinese-made engine instead. The suggestion was rejected by the navy, reasoning the Chinese engine’s performance had yet to be proven.
Following an extended impasse, the government told the navy it was time to rethink its submarine procurement plan.
The navy proposed two options — buy a frigate capable of combating submarines costing 1 billion baht more than the sub or purchase an offshore patrol vessel. The government opted for the former.
Mr Sutin leapt to the defence of the frigate option, calling it the best one available, and found himself instantly in the firing line.
He stands accused of having a misguided mindset to not pull out of a deal empty-handed. However, he reiterated that Beijing did not break the contract, despite critics arguing to the contrary.
Mr Sutin was thrust into the Defence Ministry in the hope that he could introduce some meaningful changes within the armed forces. Dumping the submarine deal for a frigate was concerning for some political observers who are demanding an explanation, considering the magnitude of the investments into building infrastructure to accommodate the submarines.
Rangsiman Rome, an outspoken critic of military weapon purchases and the chair of the House standing committee on national security, pressed the government to clarify its position and justify buying a new frigate.
He said the government cannot flipflop on the purchase deal and expect to get away with it so easily.
“The force can’t claim one day that it badly needs a sub, and then suddenly drops everything and says it doesn’t want it,” he said.
Also, if the navy is looking for a frigate, it should exercise its option and shop around with manufacturers in other countries, Mr Rangsiman added.
Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, a former election commissioner, said there are protocols to observe and steps to follow with regard to a reneged deal. An existing contract involving the sub must be revoked first, and the process of buying the frigate starts anew. Regulations do not permit a ‘mid-air’ swap.
There has been talk of Mr Sutin risking the erosion of his credibility and a possible legal violation over the planned conversion move.
The PM’s apprentice
Paetongtarn: Capturing public attention
Paetongtarn Shinawatra firmly established herself as leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party when she chaired a party meeting on Tuesday and instructed members to showcase the Pheu Thai-led government’s achievements after just two months in power, according to observers.
The youngest daughter of jailed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra should expect to be closely watched as she is widely regarded as a strong contender for prime minister after the next general election.
Political analysts are awash with theories about Ms Paetongtarn’s rise to the party leadership. She was elected leader at the party’s assembly on Oct 27.
Some speculate she will succeed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin midterm or in the last year of his four-year tenure to give her an idea about the role before leading Pheu Thai into the next election. Others reckon she will be included in the cabinet line-up to elevate her profile before the House dissolution.
However, some argue that she will just remain the party leader and vie for the prime minister post when the time comes. Ms Paetongtarn currently serves on the national committee on soft power strategy, which allows her to capture media attention and stay in the spotlight.
They believe the government’s soft power promotion policy is nothing more than an attempt to enhance Ms Paetongtarn’s image both within the country and internationally, and the public can bet that they will be hearing about “soft power” from the government throughout its term.
The ruling party is already being bombarded with criticism that it is not genuinely supporting soft power promotion and is using it to serve the party’s political interests.
Thiti “Tongtae” Srinuan, director of box office success Sap-Pa-Rer (The Undertaker), appeared to accuse the government of trying to capitalise on the film’s success when commenting on the government’s pledge to give the movie a global boost as part of the country’s soft power.
His remarks came after Mr Srettha led his cabinet in watching the film on Oct 25 with Ms Paetongtarn tagging along. They posed for a photo with Mr Thiti after the screening.
“Supporting the film has nothing to do with posing for a photo. You may not understand the movie at all. You just came for a photo opportunity and said the movie is soft power.
“The film is selling well in nine countries without government intervention. Its content can sell, and we find the market ourselves. It’s out there not because of the government,” Mr Thiti was quoted as saying.
Many critics are also questioning if Pheu Thai and its key figures directly involved in driving the policy understand what soft power represents. Some seem to think that it is about marketing or selling cultural products.
Culture Minister Sermsak Pongpanich was harshly criticised for saying that the government would promote “Si Thep ice cream” as soft power to generate income for the local community. He was referring to the ice cream that is shaped to depict ancient lintel patterns found at Si Thep Historical Park in Phetchabun and is highly popular with visitors.
Defending the government’s soft power policy, Ms Paetongtarn on Tuesday explained what the government has been doing to develop and harness the country’s soft power. In essence, it has studied how South Korea and the US have built soft power and mastered its use.
In her attempt to give people a rough idea about soft power, the Pheu Thai leader picked a mint-choc drink, her favourite beverage, as an example. There was a buzz about the drink in the middle of this year, and according to Ms Paetongtarn, many cafes reported increased sales as more people sought out the drink on the back of her free publicity.
The government, however, is trying to generate a buzz about 11 target industries, including festivals and films, but on a global scale, which would promote Pheu Thai’s “One Family, One Soft Power” initiative for a creative economy, she said.
Still, the sales increase happened on a very small scale.
Somehow, Ms Paetongtarn’s remark led some people to understand that mint-choc drinks might also be promoted as soft power. Sarcastically, they recommended the government consider starting with Thai milk tea or Thai black coffee, which enjoy widespread popularity as potential candidates for such soft power promotion.