A major US-Vietnam arms deal could aggravate China, Vietnam’s larger neighbour, which is wary of Western efforts to box in Beijing.
A long-simmering territorial dispute between Vietnam and China is heating up in the South China Sea and explains why Vietnam is looking to build up maritime defences.
“They are developing asymmetric defensive capabilities, but (want) to do so without triggering a response from China,” said Jeffrey Ordaniel, associate professor of international security studies at Tokyo International University and director for maritime security at Pacific Forum International, a think tank. “It is a delicate balancing act.”
Ordaniel said Washington should shift funds set aside for financing militaries in the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region “so partners like Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan can afford the weapons they need to resist Beijing.”
The Biden administration has said it is trying to balance geopolitical competition with China, including in the Pacific, and responsibly managing the two superpowers’ relationship.
Earlier this month, Vietnam upgraded Washington to Hanoi’s highest diplomatic status, alongside China and Russia, when US President Joe Biden visited the country.
The diplomatic turnaround marks a sharp pivot nearly a half-century after the end of the Vietnam War.
Since an arms embargo was lifted in 2016, US defence exports to Vietnam have been limited to coast guard ships and trainer aircraft, while Russia has supplied about 80 per cent of the country’s arsenal.
Vietnam spends an estimated US$2 billion annually in arms imports, and Washington is optimistic that they can shift a share of that budget over the long term to weapons from the United States or its allies and partners, especially South Korea and India.
The cost of US weaponry is a major obstacle, as is training on the equipment, and is among the reasons the country has taken in less than US$400 million of American arms over the past decade.
“Vietnamese officials are well aware that they need to spread the wealth,” the US official said. “We need to lead the charge in helping Vietnam get what it needs.”
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has complicated Hanoi’s longstanding relationship with Moscow, making supplies and spare parts for Russian-made arms harder to acquire. Nonetheless, Vietnam is also actively in talks with Moscow over a new arms supply deal that could trigger US sanctions, Reuters has reported.