CANBERRA: You have to give credit to Indonesian President Joko Widodo for his commitment to the old cliche that Javanese politicians like to communicate their intentions through symbols and hints. With presidential elections six months away, Jokowi has painstakingly avoided an explicit endorsement of any candidate.
Yet it’s become the worst-kept secret in Jakarta that the president increasingly sees advantage in having his defence minister, Prabowo Subianto, succeed him in 2024.
The aura of being Jokowi’s favoured successor matters because he approaches his last year in office with his approval ratings just above 80 per cent, an all-time high.
Benign economic conditions have helped a lot. Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.2 per cent from July 2022 to July 2023, with inflation at just 3 per cent over the same period. Corruption, informality and inequality still weigh on Indonesia’s economic potential, but for the average voter, the Widodo-era economy has expanded economic opportunities, increased availability of cash transfers and subsidised health care.
Prabowo now polls just ahead of Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo in a three-way race that includes the opposition’s candidate, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who’s failed to gain traction.
Ganjar, a member of the nationalist PDI-P party like Widodo, is burdened by his close association with PDI-P chair and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, an electorally polarising figure with whom Jokowi has a tense relationship.
Prabowo remains the fallback option for voters who now prefer Anies. Polls predict that he would win if Anies fails to make it onto the ballot and would prevail in a June runoff should Anies be eliminated in the first round of voting in February.