Low rainfall forecast for the next five years
Experts are warning Thailand to brace for unusually low average rainfall that may lead to drought as a result of the El Nino weather pattern.
Therefore, the government must take proactive action with a comprehensive water management plan to minimise its impact, they say.
The Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) yesterday held a conference on water management in the face of El Nino from this year onward.
The event was attended by researchers and officials from relevant agencies, where they discussed climate change, water resource management and ways to deal with problems and challenges that may arise.
A research team sponsored by the TSRI yesterday said a study projecting weather from now to 2028 shows a high possibility of a long period of lower-than-average rainfall.
Chalump Oonariya, a researcher from the Meteorological Department, said the study predicts that the effects of El Nino will be felt over the next five years as rainfall drops below the average rate.
Severe drought is predicted in the South in 2025, and extensive drought would affect large areas in 2028, Mr Chalump said.
However, a study is currently being conducted into the relationship between rainfall, streamflow and soil moisture to prepare for the drought, he said.
Kanoksri Sarinnapakom, head of the climate and weather department at the Hydro-Informatics Institute, said El Nino is expected to last over the next few years, leading to less rainfall and more drought, and stressed the need to prepare for uncertainties.
Chaiyapong Thepprasit, head of the irrigation engineering department of Kasetsart University’s faculty of engineering, said his team had assessed the amount of water needed for storage during the 2023–2024 dry season by studying the water flow into the Bhumibol Dam in Tak province and Sirikit Dam in Uttaradit province.
It is estimated that the Bhumibol Dam will hold about 7.98 billion cubic metres of water, or 44% above the average amount over the past 23 years, while the Sirikit Dam will hold 3.21 billion cu/m, or 46% less than the average amount over the past 15 years.
Meanwhile, the amount of water from natural sources is expected to decline by 28%, he said. However, heavy rainfall is expected from next month to August, he said.
Mr Chaiyapong added that El Nino is unlikely to have severe impacts this year because the country has sufficient water supplies. However, the situation will worsen if low rainfall persists for an extended period.
Thanet Somboon, director of the Bureau of Water Management and Hydrology under the Department of Royal Irrigation, said water management during the dry season is difficult.
Despite drought, some farmers plant rice in areas covering more than 2.2 million rai, and the department had to discharge water from dams to help them, he said, adding the department had come up with measures to ensure sufficient water supplies for consumption and agriculture.
“We expect about 9 billion cu/m of water will be used and consumed next year,” he said. “We will ensure that there is enough water for consumption and the preservation of the ecological system.”
“We also plan to allocate 5 billion cu/m of water to the farming sector,” he added.
According to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization, the likelihood of El Nino developing later this year is increasing.
This would have the opposite impact on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world to the long-running La Nina and would likely fuel higher global temperatures.
The unusually stubborn La Nina phenomenon has now ended after a three-year run, and the tropical Pacific is currently in an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso)-neutral state (neither El Nino nor La Nina).
There is a 60% chance of a transition from Enso-neutral to El Nino from May–July 2023, and this will increase to about 70% in June–August and 80% between July and September.