The revolution in Myanmar that sprung from resistance to the 2021 military coup is in its third year. Violence keeps escalating, as the military has taken to attacking villages in opposition areas with artillery and aerial bombardment.
So-called ogre columns routinely raid and massacre the civilian population in what was the military’s traditional recruiting ground in central Myanmar, seeking to bludgeon them into submission.
But the democratic coalition around the National Unity Government (NUG) of elected members of parliament (MPs) and their allies in the ethnic resistance organizations opposing the coup is gaining ground.
Many parts of the country are now beyond the reach of the junta, except through the ubiquitous air strikes. The democratic forces are now able to hit well-defended military installations with rocket fire. Their guerrilla-style attacks are edging closer to the military’s fortress capital Naypyidaw.
New research by the US Institute for Peace has revealed that the military is in a weaker condition than previously assumed: It has an effective fighting force of 70,000 plus an unknown number of the 70,000 police officers that can be put to military use.
Casualties, desertions and defections sap the military’s troop strength while that of the democratic forces is rising: The NUG’s People’s Defense Forces already number some 65,000 troops and allied ethnic resistance organizations, the Karen National Union, the Kachin Independence Organization, the Karenni National Progress Party and the Chin National Front add tens of thousands more.
The big difference between the sides continues to lie in the vastly superior equipment the military has.
Seasoned observers now argue that the military is losing. On the current trajectory, the question is no longer if the military and the junta it props up will collapse, but when.
This should be good news for those looking for an end to the war in Myanmar. Sure, it will not be for friendless Russia, which is at risk of losing another rogue partner. India, another current friend of the junta, will likely come around when it finally manages to decipher the writing on the wall. So will Thailand.
China, which has its ear much closer to the ground, works with the junta to drive forward projects in its interest, but denies it full-on support and maintains ties with the resistance.
What is curious, though, in light of the current situation is the actions of some Western and a few Asian democracies ostensibly supporting a return to democratic government in Myanmar.
Much has been made recently of the divisions in opposition to the military junta. The NUG, a democratic coalition of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and ethnic-minority lawmakers and ethnic resistance organization leaders and the National Unity Consultative Council, are a slow-moving consensus machine.
Diplomats and development partners in Yangon and across the border in Thailand moan about the bickering among the revolutionary forces and the slow progress on a new political architecture for what will be a federal democratic Myanmar.
This revolution was started bottom-up by the people. The fact that the National Unity Consultative Council, the NUG, and the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, the elected parliament, are so diverse in composition and outlook is the major strength of this movement.
The basic steps for the future are outlined in the Federal Democracy Charter. The fact that no grand bargain has been achieved is not a failure. Such a bargain would in fact be premature as major players like the United League of Arakan and the United Wa State Party cannot yet be accommodated.
The fact remains, the NUG now acts as an executive government. The NUG and its ethnic allies are expanding control of the liberated areas they govern. The Pyidaungsu Hluttaw now meets regularly, and is in fact the world’s first remote parliament. The alliance between the NLD MPs and ethnic resistance organizations holds. The Karen National Union affirmed this alliance unequivocally at its recent congress.
Even those ethnic resistance organizations opposing the junta that have not joined the political coalition yet, such as the Arakan Army that controls much of southwestern Rakhine state and the Ta-ang National Liberation Organization and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, cooperate with the coalition militarily.
Everybody agrees on the basic proposition: Myanmar will become a highly decentralized federal democracy, and the military will have no more role in politics.
The junta’s alternative vision based on a continuation of its dominance of Myanmar politics, with sham elections that exclude those political parties that have 80% of popular support, based on an undemocratic constitution written by the military that it breaks at will, has no appeal for anybody in the country. The junta has repeatedly had to delay its sham elections because it has no control of the country. It has no way forward to offer.
Here now we have a failing junta that has committed genocide against the Rohingya, that is massacring people on a daily basis, that maintains itself through a parasitic resource-extraction racket based on environmental degradation and narcotics and human trafficking, while the economy is in shambles.
In the coup, the military violated the constitutional it had itself made and derailed Myanmar’s first “democratic transition,” and is clearly not trusted by anyone. Now on top of it all it is losing militarily.
Appeasement a failed policy
To help the democratic coalition rid the country of this parasitic organization would be a no-brainer for an advanced democracy, right? Well, think again.
Seasoned partners like Switzerland and Japan continue to try to accommodate the junta by brokering ceasefires.
Staff members of one particularly active peacemaker are reported to fantasize in meetings about the possibilities of accommodating the ethnic resistance organizations under some quasi-federal system based on the 2008 Myanmar constitution. That is the constitution the military imposed on the country in the first, failed “transition to democracy” and which it itself violated in the 2021 coup.
Such a compromise is of course fanciful but speaks to the arrogance of the would-be peacemakers that seek to leverage their privileged relationships to the junta to “end the dying and suffering.” In the minds of these peacemakers the people of Myanmar seem to lack any agency and even the right to choose what cause to fight and die for.
These peacemakers would force the people of Myanmar into another botched “transition” that props up the military rentier state in the name of peace. The success of this model is now on display in Sudan.
The junta accommodationists have no more leg to stand on. Their “privileged channels” into the military did nothing to keep the first “transition” on track and they are useless now. There is a reason that countries rotate their diplomatic staff in regular intervals. It is time some partners bring in new people with a fresh perspective on things.
Even less cynical partners need to do more. The US is the only partner that provides useful material aid to the National Unity Government and the National Unity Consultative Council. I have said before that the democratic institutions need support, primarily in terms of financing, and secondarily in terms of advice.
The European Union talks a great deal but does very little. I understand it is procedurally hard for bureaucrats to find ways to fund a non-recognized government. But more of those lofty statements and remote federalism workshops that involve no transfer of resources will not cut it.
Make no mistake, peacemakers, facilitators, and advisers do have a role. The democratic coalition partners might do with some long-term, informed facilitation support to have the necessary difficult conversations among themselves about the way forward. But currently, what the democratic institutions need most is cash.
Finally, we need to realize that there is a danger in the current inaction. A long, slow decay of the junta is infinitely less desirable than its swift collapse even if violent. Low-boiling conflict and state collapse cause as much death and suffering as war.
Despite the NUG’s and ethnic partners’ expanded reach and efforts, they cannot provide services to much of the population: A generation is losing out on schooling. Without support and continued momentum, the current democratic coalition may atrophy and the only hope for a united, peaceful Myanmar may fade. There is not much needed to avoid this tragedy.