As analysts have noted, the United States has limited munitions, increasing the possibility that it would be necessary to cede the Southern China Sea within the early stages of a turmoil with China. Plus a successful invasion might increase China’s power projection capabilities plus weaken the ability of the United States to support its number one ally through an air plus naval presence in the area.
PHILIPPINES HAS HIGHLY APPEALING REAL ESTATE FOR US FORCES
While the United States could have little hope that other Southeast Asian countries (except probably for Singapore) would give practical assistance in the event of a conflict, the Philippines will be in the spotlight .
A dearth of other viable regional options makes Luzon, the Philippines’ largest island, divided from Taiwan by Luzon Strait, highly desirable real estate. Remarkably, some recent battle games by US think tanks centered on how a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan might unfold have thought that US makes would have military access to bases in the Philippines.
Under a lot of the previous Duterte management, such an assumption would have seemed overly positive. Rodrigo Duterte, which completed his five-year term earlier this year, rocked the fundamentals of the alliance from shortly after his political election in 2016, whenever he announced the “separation” of the Philippines from the United States.
Worse, from Feb 2020 until This summer 2021, he endangered to abrogate the Visiting Forces Contract (VFA) which allows Usa military personnel to work in the Philippines .
Since Come july 1st 2021, when Duterte finally announced he would not abrogate the particular VFA, US protection officials see the connections on a “very solid trajectory”. The two sides are finally making progress in implementing the “Enhanced Protection Cooperation Agreement” (EDCA) which would improve facilities for US troops at agreed locations, allowing them to increase their rotational presence in the Philippines.