Crime in the southern provinces has flared with over 20 problems reported in the past three months amid a stalled harmony speech with rebel groups.
While it is unclear what contributed to the escalation of violence from February–April, particularly during the last 10 times of the Ramadan time, it is suggested the government’s “negative” approach on the agreements may have been one of the components.
There have been at least 10 attacks and six murders with civilians, including children and the elderly, among the patients. The new wave of violence has sparked calls for the Paetongtarn Shinawatra leadership to begin negotiations to regain peace and order in the restive north.
The Bangkok Post spoke to a professional, a peace activist and politicians from both the government and opposition who have been involved in work to fix the southern fight for their insight.
Up to the dialogue table
Srisompob Jitpiromsri, chairman of the Centre for Conflict Studies and Cultural Diversity at Prince of Songkla University, said the rise in crime is a reversal of a declining trend in crime observed over the past century.
The drop-off in violence was believed to be the result of peace talks between the state and the rebel party Barisan Revolusi Nasional ( BRN), even though no official agreement was reached.
” But after the latest government took office last month, there seems to have been a change in policy. The peacefulness speech was abandoned since August last month, during which murder surged. The rise in the upheaval is believed to be expected to talks delaying,” he said.
Before the procedure was stalled, debate centred on a Joint Comprehensive Plan towards Peace (JCPP ), which seeks to involve local populations in the process and address different issues such as the business, inequality and decentralisation.
” We need a system where the JCPP is materialise and lower conditions for murder by all factors,” said Mr Srisompob.
A win-win situation could evolve where peace is fully restored during the talks, as the BRN, which initially called for independence, has softened its demands over the years in exchange for respect for their political rights.
He stressed it is best if a solution is developed through an inclusive process, while suggesting that a special administrative arrangement similar to Bangkok and Pattaya may be considered.
He acknowledged the military’s role in maintaining order should remain, but said military spending can be gradually reduced by promoting political and policy solutions, and importantly, public participation.
Currently, more than half of the military’s 20 billion baht budget to deal with the violence in the south has been spent on military operations, said Mr Srisompob.
” There is a perception that if violence decreases, the budget shrinks… and some of those in security affairs may see it as a threat to their interests,” he said. ” If people in the region are part of the peace-building solution, the military will find it easier to accept reform. This would also help address criticism about security budgets. “
Srisompob: Platform for peace plan
Halt the violence
Anchana Heemmina, a human rights defender and the founder of the Duay Jai Group, which provides rehabilitation services to torture victims in the deep South, said the years-long peace process has apparently lost momentum, and the JCPP has made no progress.
Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai’s call for a strategy review without forming a new negotiating team reflects the government’s policy towards the negotiation, she said.
She warned the government’s current approach, which leans towards arrest and prosecution amid a lack of trust in the justice system, will only worsen the situation.
Ms Anchana proposed that both sides declare a halt in the violence as a goodwill gesture before the talks resume and called on the government to appoint a lead negotiator who is accepted by both sides, has full authority from the government and advocates peaceful solutions.
When asked what a mutually beneficial peace agreement might look like, she pointed to the cases of Northern Ireland, Spain’s Basque region and Mindanao in the Philippines.
Ms Anchana said both the government and BRN must consider the voices of the people they claim to represent, saying that win-win outcome must include the people, or they will be only statistics in terms of losses.
” The people don’t want cycles of violence, but they want the start of sustainable peace. They don’t demand crackdowns. They call for peaceful solutions because they are exhausted by the conflict. “
All victims, regardless of their faith, must be treated with recognition and respect, or divisions could deepen.
Anchana: Cites Mindanao’s case
Administrative mechanisms
Chaturon Chaisang, a Pheu Thai list-MP and chair of the special House committee on promoting peace in the south, agreed the peace talks are an essential mechanism in addressing unrest.
However, he said the negotiation team is automatically dissolved when there is a change of government, adding the government will pursue the process, but the formation of a new dialogue team could take time.
The veteran MP also noted that the surge in violence may or may not be linked to the group engaged in the talks, and it is hard to determine.
According to Mr Chaturon, administrative approaches should be prioritised to continue the peace process due to legal concerns, particularly the status of the negotiators.
” It is not easy to secure approval from parliament or public acceptance. There may be legal issues, and an administrative mechanism is more suitable [under the circumstances],” he said.
Giving an update on the committee’s work, he said the panel is expected to conclude its report and recommendations during this parliamentary break.
Previous governments ‘ strategies and initiatives have also been reviewed, including economic development and education, as well as public sentiments towards these policies, he said.
He said the dialogue process alone is not enough, and underlying issues must be addressed while the dialogue continues. Moreover, the government must include diverse groups of people in its peace-building effort.
When asked how long it might take to solve the southern unrest, Mr Chaturon said that while reducing violence could happen in the short term, peace would require sustained efforts. ” It still takes time, but we don’t want the conflict to persist after two decades. “
Chaturon: Review past strategies
Road to peace
The delayed appointment of the lead negotiator has created a vacuum, and the recent visit to the region by ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra apparently raised tensions, said Kannavee Suebsang, an MP from the Fair Party.
He proposed a three-pronged strategy: making the peace talks a national agenda item, with members of the local community included in the process; reviewing special security laws and limiting their use to promote civil liberties; and implementing bureaucratic reforms for decentralisation.
Mr Kannavee said that under the military regime, the violence fell markedly, possibly due to a heavy-handed approach combined with the commitment to pursue negotiation. The elected government, however, has failed to exploit its mandate to pursue political solutions, and as a result, the situation has worsened, he said.
He said an absence of violence does not equate peace, saying the number of attacks is only an indicator. What truly matters is public confidence and trust, which is where real progress begins, he added. He said political will is the most important element in restoring peace, and so far, he has seen none.
Kannavee: Public trust matters