Commentary: Yoon and Biden meeting sends a message to North Korea and China

By:
On:
In: Asia

The White House meeting might well frame the event around the strengthening of ties between Seoul and Washington, but in reality they will want to send a message of unity in the face of sabre-rattling – and worse – by North Korea, China and Russia.

A FRIENDSHIP FORGED IN WAR

Washington and Seoul’s relationship was forged in the bloody crucible of the Korean War of 1950-53. For several decades, the alliance was lopsided, especially in the lean two decades following the armistice of 1953 when the South Korean subsistence economy was almost totally dependent on US aid.

But over the past two decades, South Korea has evened up the ledger, becoming a world leader in electronics, shipping, vehicles, arms and pop culture. The US-South Korea alliance has developed into one based as much on economic interests as diplomatic and strategic concerns.

Even the awkward issue of recent reports of alleged US spying on the South Korean presidential office is not likely to dampen the show of friendliness expected on display during the bilateral meeting.

After all, Biden and Yoon have more serious matters to contend with. The state visit follows a year in which North Korea fired nearly 100 missiles into the skies in and around the Korean Peninsula, Russia brazenly invaded Ukraine, and China upped its rhetoric around the disputed island of Taiwan. And each will need addressing in the summit.

NORTH KOREAN MISSILES

To South Korea, the threat of the isolationist state to its north is the most existential. Biden will likely underscore the US commitment to the defense of South Korea against a nuclear-armed North Korea.

But the threat is not confined to imperiling the Korean Peninsula. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s intercontinental ballistic missiles now have the capability to hit the US mainland. Such a development may be intended to draw Washington’s attention, but it has another consequence: Aligning the existential threat that South Korea faces with that of the United States.

Continue Reading

Commentary: Like the US, Asia is less than enthusiastic about another Biden term

By:
On:
In: Asia

Coming off his re-election win in Florida, one of the few Republican bright spots in the November midterm elections that saw many Trump-backed candidates defeated, DeSantis was polling neck and neck with Trump.

Since then, his trajectory has been mostly downward and he trails Trump, who is the choice of almost half (46 per cent) of Republicans by a margin of 15 points. Other declared or presumed Republican candidates including former vice president Mike Pence, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott barely register with percentages of support in the low single digits.

With almost nine months until the first presidential primary elections, there is still ample time for the field to shift for DeSantis. Yet his wobble highlights how hard it is for Republicans to gain ground against Trump. Fearful of alienating his deeply committed supporters, challengers hold their fire.

THE ONLY CANDIDATE CAPABLE OF BEATING TRUMP

For Democrats, there is a parallel dynamic of reactivity to Trump at work. Despite apprehensions about Biden’s age and fears about his low approval ratings, he is the only one who is seen as capable of beating Trump, shutting off the path for younger party hopefuls.

Certainly, Biden is credited with the party’s surprisingly good performance in November’s midterm elections. Typically, the incumbent president’s party loses substantial ground in the midterms, on average giving up 29 congressional seats. Yet under Biden, the Democrats did far better than predicted, relinquishing only nine House seats in the lower chamber House of Representatives, narrowly losing the majority and retaining control of the Senate.

Analysts attribute this to several factors including a resilient economy despite the challenges of inflation, a rejection of the extremism around the Capitol riot and election denial, the popularity of Biden policies like infrastructure investment and anger over the Supreme Court’s decision in June 2022 to roll back abortion rights.

Continue Reading