Commentary: Cut undersea cables in Baltic Sea are a reminder of Asia Pacific’s vulnerability

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A similar incident occurred in October 2023 when a Chinese ship’s trailing anchor caused damage to two underwater cables and a gas network. Chinese authorities acknowledged ten months after that the accident-caused damage caused by the fleet NewNew Polar Bear, which was initially denied responsibility.

However, without permanent monitoring, it is difficult to create intentionality, or perhaps attribution, in such incidents. Claims are unlikely to harm escalation unless grief can be proven beyond all reasonable question given the high stakes. &nbsp,

AN Rising Matrix OF Danger

Given the immensity of the Earth’s waters, and the large number of underwater cables, securing the international network in its totality is difficult. However, many cables run through global waters, where there is no efficient regime to hold potential culprits responsible.

Underwater cables are essential to the operation of the internet, and while it is impossible to establish whether the cable incidents in the Baltic Sea were harmful, they offer an example of how sabotage comparable to those that have been committed as part of a cross technique.

For instance, in 2023, two undersea cables connecting Taiwan with its Matsu territories were cut by Chinese non-naval vessels, disconnecting 14, 000 people from the internet for 50 days. It is not difficult to see how a situation like this could help military operations in the event of war, despite the lack of any proof that this was China’s intention.

The Asia Pacific and its numerous cables make a good place to look for potential hybrid players. For instance, the Straits of Malacca is a crucial chokepoint for the state’s underwater wires, responsible for providing information relationship between Asia, India, the Middle East and Europe, and with its relatively shallow waters, run a higher risk of incidents. Really an incident occur it, the impact on regional connectivity may be important.

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Commentary: Is Russia really European anymore?

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NO EVIDENT FANDOM FOR XI IN RUSSIA

Less clear is how willing Russians are to embrace cultural ties with China. Russian social media is not a closed box like China’s is, and nor does it have the same level of state control (although that level of control is quickly rising). Russians also still use Western social media such as Instagram at a high rate.

But within Russian social media such as VK and Telegram, there is no evident fandom for Xi in the same way that there is for Putin on Chinese platforms.

Xi’s online reputation is a little more dignified on Russian social media than it is in the West – way less Winnie-the-Pooh references – but it is still rather lacklustre. When searching Xi Jinping on VK, one of the first groups that come up is titled “Is Xi Jinping dead yet.”

This may be explained in part due to Putin’s long-standing effort to craft a cult of personality in support of his rule, while in comparison Xi has made efforts to keep his real personality as low key as possible, to better personify himself as the will of the Party. That doesn’t make for simple memes.

As for China as a whole, while again its image in Russia is more positive than it is in Western social media, it is still treated as the other. Even when championing the relationship, the far-right Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin states that China and Russia are two distinctly different cultures, and he is not alone in his feeling.

Russia’s awkward embrace of its Asian roots has been an issue dating back to the time of the tsars. It is a psychologically difficult transition. The war with Ukraine may finally drive a cultural change. China seems ready – but only if you believe what’s said.

Evan Freidin is an international relations analyst. This commentary first appeared on Lowy Institute’s blog, The Interpreter.

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Commentary: Asia now getting ready for Kamala Harris, not just Donald Trump

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THE CHINA Path essentially repeats itself.

On China, Ms Harris did certainly remain the Biden administration’s approach of “invest, coincide, compete”- invest in the US, coincide with partners and allies and compete against China to defend America’s core interests.

Kurt Tong, a former US ambassador to APEC and a former US consular public to Hong Kong, said that Ms. Harris is likely to adopt Mr. Biden’s lead on financial relations with China, focusing on technology denial for tactical reasons, and sometimes utilizing tariffs to protect vital industries that are threatened by China’s overcapacity.

She may be more concerned about animal rights than Biden and more focused on fusing climate change policy with trade. The biggest contrast with Trump would be on more conventional trade protectionists, where Trump promises to increase tariffs quickly and fully on Chinese goods in a idealistic effort to degree out US exports and imports, but Mr. Tong warned that this would result to inflation.

In some ways, Ms. Harris or Trump’s monetary policy toward Asia did not wander significantly.

Whoever prevails, the US will not be resuming its role in free business.

The Democrat’s platform reads,” For too long, America’s trade policies and approach to the world economy let middle-class jobs move abroad, hollowed out our supply chains, rewarded corporate CEOs rather of valuing workers, and failed to generate diverse economic growth”, thus calling for” a fairer, more durable global economic order, for the benefit of the American people and for people everyday”.

Further, the Republican platform goes further, promising to “rebalance” trade through tariffs and calling for the end of China’s permanent normal trade relationship with the US.

” Regardless of whether it’s Harris or Trump, paradoxically, the US will continue to walk away from trade while the rest of Asia embraces it”, Mr Kishore Mahbubani, former Singapore diplomat and former president of the United Nations Security Council, told me.

While the US watches on the sidelines under either Harris or Trump,” states in the region led by the CIA- China, India, and ASEAN- will continue their regional integration,” he added.

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Commentary: The world’s climate leaders need better data amid sweltering heat

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NEW DELHI: It is understandable that global warming is currently altering how we live.

In India’s money, New Delhi, this summer has been so warm- above 40 degrees Celsius yet at evening- that people are gasping, the tap water is scalding, and the walls of their homes emit heat like radiators.

According to the Saudi Arabian government, 1,300 travellers have now died during the Hajj this year. Due to exhaustion, people at the European football tournaments are collapsing.

IDENTIFICATION OF THE COST OF Culture CHANGE

And still economists are at the center of a new debate about the actual costs of climate change, which are clearly able to keep their cool when everyone else loses theirs. According to a fresh working paper from two academic departments at Harvard and Northwestern, which was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the economic damage caused by climate change could be as little as six times higher than previously thought.

Their design predicts that a second degree increase in global mean temperature causes a gradual decline in global GDP that tops at 12 % after six years and does not entirely recover even ten years after the shock.

They argue that this makes punitive weather change worthwhile for nations like the US, and that the argument may also apply to nations that are poorer but significantly more vulnerable to climate change, like India. Is it possible to include a few more nations around?

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Commentary: Malaysia is a natural fit for BRICS bloc

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WANTING TO SEE A WORLD Get

Malaysia’s application to the BRICS serves as an additional platform from which it can expand its global reach as a center power and gain economic benefits.

In recent years, there have been significant problems involving OIC and ASEAN. The OIC, which has 57 people, is the second-largest organization after the UN. It claims to be the global voice of the Arab world, but it is actually going through a lot of changes as a result of geostrategic shifts in the Middle East, including changes under the leadership of Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Abraham Accords that Israel and many Arab states signed in 2020 to bring normality to relationships.

How little has the OIC changed recently as a result of their inability to reach a consensus on the Gaza issue. Saudi Arabia hosted a particular mountain on Gaza between the OIC states and the Muslim League in November of last year, which was unable to agree on what they could do to stop the conflict. It could be seen as a loss, aside from a watered-down declaration that the fight must stop and allow humanitarian assistance to provide Gaza.

There are significant differences between ASEAN users regarding what the expansion of China means for the area. The ongoing conflict over claims in the South China Sea evidently demonstrates the units in ASEAN. Therefore, it is not surprising that Malaysia seeks out more international platforms to represent its interests.

Also, joining BRICS is a fairly easy affair. A free alliance provides a forum for discussion of close-knit and democratic consensus on global issues. Members do not have to shift any local laws to coincide with the organisation, unlike for example, joining the European Union, therefore countries who join BRICS do not have to do many internally.

A significant portion of the BRICS is also dedicated to South-South trade ( between the Global South ), with China serving as the main player. Joining the BRICS can be seen as a natural transition because Malaysia is currently a member of the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which does need changing local laws.

Anwar Ibrahim, the prime minister of Malaysia, said in a recent discussion about joining the BRICS that” China’s increase has, brought us a glimmer of hope that there are checks and balances in the world.”

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Commentary: What does Vietnam stand to gain from welcoming Russia’s Putin

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Obscure Visible BENEFITS

Besides romantic attachments and the government’s political consideration, substantial benefits for Vietnam from Putin’s explore are obscure. Bilateral trade stood at&nbsp, US$ 3.6 billion &nbsp, in 2023, half of the&nbsp, 2021 figure&nbsp, and a mere fraction of Vietnam’s trade with China ( US$ 171 billion ), the US ( US$ 111 billion ) and EU ( US$ 72 billion ).

In 2023, Soviet visitors, again among the top 10 resources of foreign tourists to Vietnam, dropped to only&nbsp, 19 per cent&nbsp, of the 2019 ( post- COVID 19 pandemic ) number.

The hopes of furthering financial ties are dark, given the US&nbsp, tightening sanctions&nbsp, against Russia. The only area of different may be in the energy sector, where, despite China’s growing obstructiveness, Vietnam however places its hopes on Russia’s ongoing support of its petroleum projects in the South China Sea.

Also, Asian investments in Soviet oil and gas reserves through&nbsp, Rusvietpetro- a cooperative venture between state- owned Zarubezhneft and Petrovietnam- are reaping profits with Soviet tax concessions.

In the hands industry, where Russia matters the most to Vietnam, Russia ‘s&nbsp, stability as a military partner&nbsp, is exceedingly in question as its army industry looks towards&nbsp, Chinese, North Vietnamese and Iranian&nbsp, help to maintain its war machine in Ukraine.

Even before the conflict in Ukraine, Vietnam had begun to diversify its wings source, and this trend is likely to expand. &nbsp, Russian hands payments to Vietnam&nbsp, have gradually decreased since peaking at around US$ 1 billion in 2014, plunging deeper after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to just US$ 72 million in 2022.

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Commentary: Singapore’s balancing act continues regardless of US election outcome

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Fourth, given that his predecessor is still controversial on a national level, the Biden strategy wants this election to be less of a referendum on the president’s second term and more of a choice over a second one. Trump’s irresponsible call for social security cuts is just one example of how he made it simpler for Biden to carry out that plan.

WHAT TO Expect During A Next Trump Trial

A Donald Trump return to power in the US would have significant repercussions internally.

A Trump success will result in work to source out the therefore- called “deep position” of civil servants, impacting the US government’s ability to function as it does now. His planned severe immigration crackdown will also result in a decline in home suffering, both economically and socially, as well as in international relations and climate change.

There will be a lot of influence on the rest of the world because the world’s security is more sensitive than ever.

If the US were to remain in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ), a second Trump term would mean a lessening of its commitment to Ukraine and a significant reduction in its involvement there.

Countries like Japan and South Korea are likely to find their individual nuclear weapons, which would have an impact on their relations with China and have a regional influence as a result.

A Trump presidency would be less likely to participate in restraining Israel in its vengeance against Hamas ‘ Oct. 7, 2023 strike, which the Biden administration has begun to do more formally. &nbsp, This could lead to further increase of the conflict, which may directly impact Singapore’s sea market.

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Commentary: Should Trump win the US presidential election again, will Kim Jong Un pick up the phone?

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By extending the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Shared Assistance for an additional 20 years, North Korea and China restored their diplomatic ties in July 2021.

Following the invasion of Ukraine, with Russia and North Korea continuing to party like the ancient Russian times, Russian President Vladimir Putin contacted Kim for weapons. Kim gained the tacit support of Beijing and Moscow for his nuclear and missile programs as a result of their new connection.

In addition to terminating the 2018 military agreement with South Korea and remilitarizing the inter-Korean borders, North Korea is today comfortable enough to create a “tactical nuclear hit” on the country.

A DIFFERENT APPROACH IS MADE BY SOUTH KOREA’S YOON SUK-YEOL.

Kim might gain a number of advantages if Trump returns to the White House. Trump is likely to increase pressure on South Korea to add more to the alliance and threaten to reduce US military presence in the area as a interpersonal leader. At the same time, Trump is the kind of person who would want to rekindle personal ties with Kim in an effort to triumph over Biden’s mediocre North Korea plan.

Even so, Trump wo n’t have an easy time crossing the same river twice because Yoon Suk-yeol, the current president of South Korea, approaches North Korea very differently than his liberal predecessor Moon Jae-in.

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Commentary: Xi and Putin think they’re winning – and maybe they are

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REDISTRIBUTION OF POWER

The typical objective outlined in their mutual declaration was the” transfer of power in the world ,” an ending to US supremacy, and the redefining of democracy and human rights as whatever a given state says they are, regardless of whether Putin disclosed to Xi specifics of his impending plans to invade Ukraine at their 2022 meeting.

For certain, Xi didn’t foresee Russia’s war machine being humiliated in Ukraine or that the West may react by uniting and expanding rather than by imploding, any more than Putin did. In a similar vein, it’s unlikely that Xi anticipated the latest Middle East blaze when the two officials met in February 2022.

However, trouble in Ukraine or the Middle East is a gain for China in terms of an all-out political conflict with the US. Both rely on US tools and focus. Both challenged the status quo. Options for Xi may arise as the US becomes involved in Israel’s retaliation against Hamas in Gaza and its partnerships with the Gulf Arab state will become strained.

Therefore, China has avoided any open criticism of Hamas while criticizing Israel for its social punishment of Palestinians in reply, only as Putin quickly laid the blame for the horrifying attack on Israeli civilians at the entrance of the US.

Putin and Xi are doubling down on their achievements in convincing the so-called Global South that the issue isn’t Russian anger in Ukraine or Hamas’ hideous criminal deeds in Israel, but rather the continued colonization of the US and Europe by courting the Arab world in this way.

Never mind the Taiwanese detention of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang province or the Russian destruction of Muslim Tatars in the occupied Crimea. The Arab injustice, with its imperial overtones and extensive background in centuries of conflict over control of the Holy Land, can infuriate the Arab Street unlike any other, which is why the story works.

But be prepared for Xi and Putin to deliver more vehement anti-Western messages this year. They may have experienced some financial and military failures, in Russia’s case, but they are making good progress when it comes to uniting various countries behind their produce.

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Commentary: India needs to take Sikh leader’s murder in Canada seriously

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Otherwise, it appears that Trudeau and Modi’s meet at the recent G20 summit in New Delhi— where the Nijjar shooting was discussed— was a train crash for all time.

Trudeau claimed that he” individually and directly” brought Modi the charges. In contrast, Canada is accused of supporting a” nexus” of religious extremism and” organised crime, drug cartels, and human prostitution” in the official Indian display of the meeting.

People Assistance AND Clarity

There are many things about this situation that we still don’t understand. The standard American theory that the French establishment is rife with Sikh separatist movement sympathizers who have influenced a murder investigation with extreme viewpoints may end up having some merit.

What matters right now is that the American government cooperates as openly as it can while the Canadians carry out an analysis in the most transparent manner possible.

We may therefore acknowledge that there is a subjective difference between this and previous American plan on fanaticism worldwide if there turns out to be enough proof that this was savagely committed by the state.

Yes, it is true that New Delhi is thought to have killed insurgents who were in exile in Pakistan in the past. However, even when relations with the West were much worse than they are now, the larger community has always been off limitations.

This case will undoubtedly be cited by Modi’s supporters when he runs for re-election in the following year as additional proof of his efforts to transform India from a weakened state to one that is strong.

However, having the ability to travel across continents and murder those you fear is one thing; it is quite another to do it in a way that denigrates your friends and the ideals they- and you, presumably— hold dear. India may ending up looking much more like Rwanda or Russia than Israel or the United States to the rest of the world.

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