Commentary: Trump ‘tarrifies’ the world. The world should respond in kind

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Social Weight

Mr Trump’s tax activities are unlikely to halt on Apr 2. He has previously indicated strategies to impose new tariffs on electronics and medical imports, which will further destroy international trade.

For nowadays, the presidency appears committed to this program. If inflation rises, stocks fall or supply chains puncture- all probable- the pressure may mount. That does come in the form of market turmoil, people anger or coordinated global retribution.

At present, but, the planet finds itself trapped in the “prisoner’s dilemma”. While social action would gain all, each state has strong motivation to defend itself. That’s exactly what has happened- and specifically what Mr Trump counted on.

Mr Trump has long favoured diplomatic talks, which he believes maximises US liquidity. He disdains the existing international system, despite it allowing the US to be the world’s strong economy, and which would force the US to be like. His challenges to the European Union and Canada if they join forces on counter-tariffs make clear why he will do what’s needed to keep places divided. &nbsp,

Companies, investors and governments are “tarrified”- trapped between the fear of socioeconomic consequences and the cost of pushing up.

While some want the April 2 taxes will not be as serious as expected given teetering markets, and one never knows who Mr Trump may listen to before making his final decision, trust is not a plan.

In this era, with the market guardrail failing to hold on its own so far, standing together will be the only way to bargain with an America First US. &nbsp,

Steven R Okun and Thurgood Marshall Jr served in the Clinton administration as Deputy General Counsel at the Department of Transportation and White House Cabinet Secretary, respectively. Mr Okun serves as CEO of APAC Advisors in Singapore. Mr Marshall practices law in Washington, DC.

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Commentary: Putting the Trump-Modi bromance to the test

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Hope FOR A Update

Against this backdrop, it is easy to discover why Trump’s win in previous November’s presidential election raised expectations in India for a reset in diplomatic relations. It is helpful that Trump has frequently pledged to reach a quick resolution to the Ukraine conflict, removing India’s option to choose not to participate in that issue.

A few weeks into Trump’s subsequent administration, however, there are factors to fear this red situation. Trump has so far failed to stop India from pursuing his relentless plan promises, including reducing taxes and deporting illegal immigrants. Their hands and feet were shackled when the Trump presidency sent more than 100 Indian immigrants back to India on a military plane during the 40-hour struggle. Modi said little.

In fact, much from standing up to Trump, Modi has prematurely slashed taxes on US goods, hoping that this would keep India out of” Tax Man’s” places. But a unsatisfied Trump, who has called India a “very great abuser” of taxes, has never spared India from his steel and aluminum charges. He wants India to clean out its US$ 35 billion bilateral trade deficit, by buying more oil and gas merchandise, and more arms, from the US.

India is the world’s third-largest major energy customer, after China and the US, and the largest source of fuel need progress. For a US leadership that is committed to increasing domestic oil and gas production, the country is a very attractive business for it. It also means that Trump’s devotion to pushing down fuel costs, including by applying pressure on OPEC head Saudi Arabia, do gain India’s economy.

Trump has never been mainly concerned about making sure that his business contracts are beneficial to both parties. His strategy for India might be to force Modi’s government to take the business package of his choosing using the danger of tariffs.

That is what he did to Japan during his first administration. He even attempted to do it with India, but he did it, and instead he stripped it of its unique business status, leading to India imposing retaliatory tariffs on some US goods.

If Trump ends up slapping more taxes on India, the Indian market was slow, at least significantly. More broadly, Trump’s” America First” business plan – which conflicts with Modi’s” Make in India” program – threatens to undermine India’s position as the country’s “back office”, providing substantial IT and business solutions to US companies.

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Commentary: US adjusts to Trump; Asia must do the same

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AN Royal Presidential CONTINUES WITH TRUMP’S GUARDRAILS.

Guardrails are made to point people away from danger and shield them from danger. As Trump re-enters company, he continues to issue existing handrails.

A Congress controlled by Republicans, many of whom came to power with Trump’s support, evidently will submit to him other than in the most severe examples, such as his first nomination of Matt Gaetz to become Attorney General.

Selecting someone who has been found guilty of paying for sex by parliamentary ethics authorities, including a 17-year-old lady, and using illegal medicines, including marijuana, crosses the line for Trump.

It remains to be seen if any of the other nominations, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, or Pete Hegseth for Defense, are confirmed. If any do, let alone all three, it does demonstrate Trump’s unrivalled political power in the post-war time.

The criticism group has also failed.

To have handrails, you may be willing to fight, according to Democrat strategist Peter Goelz. Democrats want someone else to handle the large lifting, such as Liz Cheney on the Jan 6 council or Robert Mueller serving as the impartial counsel in the first word. Today, it’s too late to stop him”.

Last July, the Supreme Court eliminated a crucial check on Trump’s strength. &nbsp, There, the Court ruled that presidents have “absolute” exemption for acts committed as leader within their” key constitutional powers”, at least “presumptive resistance” for “acts within the outer boundary” of their official duty, and no immunity for illegal acts.

Trump enters the president knowing that when he leaves company, he can essentially be held legally responsible for making decisions, including ordering activities with the intention to remain in authority after his constitutionally-limited next term.

However, the most recent Supreme Court ruling against Trump in the case involving hush money in New York surprised, particularly with the selection by Trump-appointed Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who was the decisive vote in a 5-4 selection. The recent Supreme Court may simply not have had the statistics it needs to assert itself. &nbsp,

A bit of a wall, and one on which no one really count.

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Commentary: Cut undersea cables in Baltic Sea are a reminder of Asia Pacific’s vulnerability

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A similar incident occurred in October 2023 when a Chinese ship’s trailing anchor caused damage to two underwater cables and a gas network. Chinese authorities acknowledged ten months after that the accident-caused damage caused by the fleet NewNew Polar Bear, which was initially denied responsibility.

However, without permanent monitoring, it is difficult to create intentionality, or perhaps attribution, in such incidents. Claims are unlikely to harm escalation unless grief can be proven beyond all reasonable question given the high stakes. &nbsp,

AN Rising Matrix OF Danger

Given the immensity of the Earth’s waters, and the large number of underwater cables, securing the international network in its totality is difficult. However, many cables run through global waters, where there is no efficient regime to hold potential culprits responsible.

Underwater cables are essential to the operation of the internet, and while it is impossible to establish whether the cable incidents in the Baltic Sea were harmful, they offer an example of how sabotage comparable to those that have been committed as part of a cross technique.

For instance, in 2023, two undersea cables connecting Taiwan with its Matsu territories were cut by Chinese non-naval vessels, disconnecting 14, 000 people from the internet for 50 days. It is not difficult to see how a situation like this could help military operations in the event of war, despite the lack of any proof that this was China’s intention.

The Asia Pacific and its numerous cables make a good place to look for potential hybrid players. For instance, the Straits of Malacca is a crucial chokepoint for the state’s underwater wires, responsible for providing information relationship between Asia, India, the Middle East and Europe, and with its relatively shallow waters, run a higher risk of incidents. Really an incident occur it, the impact on regional connectivity may be important.

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Commentary: Is Russia really European anymore?

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NO EVIDENT FANDOM FOR XI IN RUSSIA

Less clear is how willing Russians are to embrace cultural ties with China. Russian social media is not a closed box like China’s is, and nor does it have the same level of state control (although that level of control is quickly rising). Russians also still use Western social media such as Instagram at a high rate.

But within Russian social media such as VK and Telegram, there is no evident fandom for Xi in the same way that there is for Putin on Chinese platforms.

Xi’s online reputation is a little more dignified on Russian social media than it is in the West – way less Winnie-the-Pooh references – but it is still rather lacklustre. When searching Xi Jinping on VK, one of the first groups that come up is titled “Is Xi Jinping dead yet.”

This may be explained in part due to Putin’s long-standing effort to craft a cult of personality in support of his rule, while in comparison Xi has made efforts to keep his real personality as low key as possible, to better personify himself as the will of the Party. That doesn’t make for simple memes.

As for China as a whole, while again its image in Russia is more positive than it is in Western social media, it is still treated as the other. Even when championing the relationship, the far-right Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin states that China and Russia are two distinctly different cultures, and he is not alone in his feeling.

Russia’s awkward embrace of its Asian roots has been an issue dating back to the time of the tsars. It is a psychologically difficult transition. The war with Ukraine may finally drive a cultural change. China seems ready – but only if you believe what’s said.

Evan Freidin is an international relations analyst. This commentary first appeared on Lowy Institute’s blog, The Interpreter.

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Commentary: Asia now getting ready for Kamala Harris, not just Donald Trump

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THE CHINA Path essentially repeats itself.

On China, Ms Harris did certainly remain the Biden administration’s approach of “invest, coincide, compete”- invest in the US, coincide with partners and allies and compete against China to defend America’s core interests.

Kurt Tong, a former US ambassador to APEC and a former US consular public to Hong Kong, said that Ms. Harris is likely to adopt Mr. Biden’s lead on financial relations with China, focusing on technology denial for tactical reasons, and sometimes utilizing tariffs to protect vital industries that are threatened by China’s overcapacity.

She may be more concerned about animal rights than Biden and more focused on fusing climate change policy with trade. The biggest contrast with Trump would be on more conventional trade protectionists, where Trump promises to increase tariffs quickly and fully on Chinese goods in a idealistic effort to degree out US exports and imports, but Mr. Tong warned that this would result to inflation.

In some ways, Ms. Harris or Trump’s monetary policy toward Asia did not wander significantly.

Whoever prevails, the US will not be resuming its role in free business.

The Democrat’s platform reads,” For too long, America’s trade policies and approach to the world economy let middle-class jobs move abroad, hollowed out our supply chains, rewarded corporate CEOs rather of valuing workers, and failed to generate diverse economic growth”, thus calling for” a fairer, more durable global economic order, for the benefit of the American people and for people everyday”.

Further, the Republican platform goes further, promising to “rebalance” trade through tariffs and calling for the end of China’s permanent normal trade relationship with the US.

” Regardless of whether it’s Harris or Trump, paradoxically, the US will continue to walk away from trade while the rest of Asia embraces it”, Mr Kishore Mahbubani, former Singapore diplomat and former president of the United Nations Security Council, told me.

While the US watches on the sidelines under either Harris or Trump,” states in the region led by the CIA- China, India, and ASEAN- will continue their regional integration,” he added.

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Commentary: The world’s climate leaders need better data amid sweltering heat

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NEW DELHI: It is understandable that global warming is currently altering how we live.

In India’s money, New Delhi, this summer has been so warm- above 40 degrees Celsius yet at evening- that people are gasping, the tap water is scalding, and the walls of their homes emit heat like radiators.

According to the Saudi Arabian government, 1,300 travellers have now died during the Hajj this year. Due to exhaustion, people at the European football tournaments are collapsing.

IDENTIFICATION OF THE COST OF Culture CHANGE

And still economists are at the center of a new debate about the actual costs of climate change, which are clearly able to keep their cool when everyone else loses theirs. According to a fresh working paper from two academic departments at Harvard and Northwestern, which was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the economic damage caused by climate change could be as little as six times higher than previously thought.

Their design predicts that a second degree increase in global mean temperature causes a gradual decline in global GDP that tops at 12 % after six years and does not entirely recover even ten years after the shock.

They argue that this makes punitive weather change worthwhile for nations like the US, and that the argument may also apply to nations that are poorer but significantly more vulnerable to climate change, like India. Is it possible to include a few more nations around?

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Commentary: Malaysia is a natural fit for BRICS bloc

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WANTING TO SEE A WORLD Get

Malaysia’s application to the BRICS serves as an additional platform from which it can expand its global reach as a center power and gain economic benefits.

In recent years, there have been significant problems involving OIC and ASEAN. The OIC, which has 57 people, is the second-largest organization after the UN. It claims to be the global voice of the Arab world, but it is actually going through a lot of changes as a result of geostrategic shifts in the Middle East, including changes under the leadership of Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Abraham Accords that Israel and many Arab states signed in 2020 to bring normality to relationships.

How little has the OIC changed recently as a result of their inability to reach a consensus on the Gaza issue. Saudi Arabia hosted a particular mountain on Gaza between the OIC states and the Muslim League in November of last year, which was unable to agree on what they could do to stop the conflict. It could be seen as a loss, aside from a watered-down declaration that the fight must stop and allow humanitarian assistance to provide Gaza.

There are significant differences between ASEAN users regarding what the expansion of China means for the area. The ongoing conflict over claims in the South China Sea evidently demonstrates the units in ASEAN. Therefore, it is not surprising that Malaysia seeks out more international platforms to represent its interests.

Also, joining BRICS is a fairly easy affair. A free alliance provides a forum for discussion of close-knit and democratic consensus on global issues. Members do not have to shift any local laws to coincide with the organisation, unlike for example, joining the European Union, therefore countries who join BRICS do not have to do many internally.

A significant portion of the BRICS is also dedicated to South-South trade ( between the Global South ), with China serving as the main player. Joining the BRICS can be seen as a natural transition because Malaysia is currently a member of the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which does need changing local laws.

Anwar Ibrahim, the prime minister of Malaysia, said in a recent discussion about joining the BRICS that” China’s increase has, brought us a glimmer of hope that there are checks and balances in the world.”

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Commentary: What does Vietnam stand to gain from welcoming Russia’s Putin

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Obscure Visible BENEFITS

Besides romantic attachments and the government’s political consideration, substantial benefits for Vietnam from Putin’s explore are obscure. Bilateral trade stood at&nbsp, US$ 3.6 billion &nbsp, in 2023, half of the&nbsp, 2021 figure&nbsp, and a mere fraction of Vietnam’s trade with China ( US$ 171 billion ), the US ( US$ 111 billion ) and EU ( US$ 72 billion ).

In 2023, Soviet visitors, again among the top 10 resources of foreign tourists to Vietnam, dropped to only&nbsp, 19 per cent&nbsp, of the 2019 ( post- COVID 19 pandemic ) number.

The hopes of furthering financial ties are dark, given the US&nbsp, tightening sanctions&nbsp, against Russia. The only area of different may be in the energy sector, where, despite China’s growing obstructiveness, Vietnam however places its hopes on Russia’s ongoing support of its petroleum projects in the South China Sea.

Also, Asian investments in Soviet oil and gas reserves through&nbsp, Rusvietpetro- a cooperative venture between state- owned Zarubezhneft and Petrovietnam- are reaping profits with Soviet tax concessions.

In the hands industry, where Russia matters the most to Vietnam, Russia ‘s&nbsp, stability as a military partner&nbsp, is exceedingly in question as its army industry looks towards&nbsp, Chinese, North Vietnamese and Iranian&nbsp, help to maintain its war machine in Ukraine.

Even before the conflict in Ukraine, Vietnam had begun to diversify its wings source, and this trend is likely to expand. &nbsp, Russian hands payments to Vietnam&nbsp, have gradually decreased since peaking at around US$ 1 billion in 2014, plunging deeper after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to just US$ 72 million in 2022.

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Commentary: Singapore’s balancing act continues regardless of US election outcome

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Fourth, given that his predecessor is still controversial on a national level, the Biden strategy wants this election to be less of a referendum on the president’s second term and more of a choice over a second one. Trump’s irresponsible call for social security cuts is just one example of how he made it simpler for Biden to carry out that plan.

WHAT TO Expect During A Next Trump Trial

A Donald Trump return to power in the US would have significant repercussions internally.

A Trump success will result in work to source out the therefore- called “deep position” of civil servants, impacting the US government’s ability to function as it does now. His planned severe immigration crackdown will also result in a decline in home suffering, both economically and socially, as well as in international relations and climate change.

There will be a lot of influence on the rest of the world because the world’s security is more sensitive than ever.

If the US were to remain in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ), a second Trump term would mean a lessening of its commitment to Ukraine and a significant reduction in its involvement there.

Countries like Japan and South Korea are likely to find their individual nuclear weapons, which would have an impact on their relations with China and have a regional influence as a result.

A Trump presidency would be less likely to participate in restraining Israel in its vengeance against Hamas ‘ Oct. 7, 2023 strike, which the Biden administration has begun to do more formally. &nbsp, This could lead to further increase of the conflict, which may directly impact Singapore’s sea market.

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