Commentary: China is still the world’s biggest emitter, but also an emerging force in climate diplomacy

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TRANSPORT

In 2023, global electric vehicle sales exceeded 13 million. China has the largest domestic electric vehicle market with more than seven million units sold, representing a third of car sales.

In addition, China exported 1.2 million electric vehicles in 2023. This was 80 per cent more than the previous year.

Electric vehicles are already cheaper than cars with internal combustion engines in China, because they have such a high market share. Local carmakers already offer nearly 50 different small, affordable electric models.

STEEL

In April, China announced it was preparing to extend emissions trading to the steel industry. This sector is the country’s second largest CO2 emitter, behind power.

Emissions trading is a market-based approach to controlling pollution. The government allocates permits that allow release of a certain amount of CO2 over a set period of time. These permits can be bought and sold, or traded.

China accounts for more than half of the world’s steel production. But the industry also supports the energy transition, because steel is used in renewables and electric vehicles manufacturing. Nearly 70 per cent of the world’s key components of wind turbines and 80 per cent of solar panel components are made in China.

The government is encouraging industry to work with universities and research institutes to reduce emissions. It will not be easy, and it will be costly.

China is the world’s largest hydrogen producer, but 80 per cent comes from fossil fuels. Investment in green hydrogen research and development is increasing, with some firms determined to take the lead. If steel-making could be powered by green hydrogen, it would be a major breakthrough.

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Commentary: After Typhoon Gaemi, fast-growing megacities must prepare for worsening disasters

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WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO CUT DISASTER RISK?

As climate change loads the dice for more and worse disasters, leaders in the Philippines will have to tackle their nation’s systemic vulnerabilities to disaster, as will other frontline nations.

We’re starting to see evidence climate-boosted disasters hit people in emerging urban centres harder. Typhoons are at their most lethal when they strike fast-growing megacities in emerging economies.

In 2007, the world passed an urbanisation milestone. For the first time in recorded human history, more people lived in cities than in rural areas. Since then, urbanisation has only accelerated, as people from rural areas head to burgeoning megacities such as Lagos in Nigeria and Dhaka in Bangladesh. But residents of these cities are often more at risk from flooding and other climate-boosted extreme weather events.

What can we do? As Filipinos braced for Typhoon Gaemi, many frantically looked for information. Data on dangerous flood areas from open access hazard assessment tools proved useful to boost individual preparedness.

But governments must actually plan for and tackle root causes of flooding to make fast-growing cities better able to resist the disasters of the future.

Emily Nabong is a PhD candidate in Humanitarian Engineering at the University of Sydney. Aaron Opdyke is a Senior Lecturer in Humanitarian Engineering at the University of Sydney. University of Sydney Masters students Sheryn See and Isaac Besarra contributed to this article. This commentary first appeared in The Conversation.

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Commentary: Malaysia’s difficult path to a low-carbon economy

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Second, Malaysia should pursue the huge potential for green investment in electric vehicles ( EVs ), including motorcycles, and in hydrogen-based industries. Malaysia might become a leader in innovation, for instance, by utilizing battery-swapping systems in EVs to shorten recharge cycles and extend battery life. The opportunities for EV deployment, such as the road tax deduction and individual tax deduction relating to EV costs, are justified. An EV trend may be crucial to Kuala Lumpur’s 2030 goal of reducing coal power to 45 per share of the 2005 levels.

The biggest desire for green tech lies in a gas discovery. A clean power alternative to natural gas that produces enormous heat as a byproduct as well as water. However, its commercialism faces difficult challenges, particularly due to the high cost of producing hydrogen. The options are already growing, with gas being increasingly used in substances, cotton fabric production, cup, electronics, and metalworking.

Malaysia has great potential in this area as positive experiences emerge, for instance in Sarawak, where projects such as H2ornbill and H2biscus, in collaboration with Asian and North Korean lovers respectively, have made strides in hydrogen-based, export-oriented business.

Third, Malaysia needs to sea up administrative and financial assistance. In addition to money models, incentives, and grants for alternative technology adoption and R& development, there are other important areas of focus. D.

The state needs clearer standards and regulations in green markets, and more strict monitoring of efficient investments, to increase transparency and accountability. The state could also take into account the creation of a natural classification, which local banks have indicated would be helpful in setting criteria for approving natural loans. Lastly, enhancing the mobility and quality of data will be important for policy research, monitoring, evaluation, and future reforms.

With its big rely on fossil fuels, Malaysia faces a difficult but necessary road to decarbonisation. Yet, the country is well-positioned to plug into emerging industrial opportunities for low-carbon growth in industry and travel. Moving forward, Malaysia has confidently and quickly encourage green investments and work toward its carbon reduction objectives.

The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is hosting Vinod Thomas as a visiting top brother. This commentary  second appeared  on the Institute’s site, Fulcrum.

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Commentary: Malaysia must unlock the potential of carbon credits

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FORESTS GOVERNED BY STATE AUTHORITIES

At the heart of Malaysia’s forestry sector also lies a jurisdictional quagmire, wherein forest management is predominantly governed by state authorities rather than federal oversight.

Historically, Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo (Sabah and Sarawak) have indigenous communities with deep connections to the land but governments have permitted extensive growth of the logging industry with regional differences in practices, regulations and environmental considerations.

This decentralisation of power poses a hurdle to the effective management and regulation of forests, particularly concerning carbon credit initiatives. Yet, despite this jurisdictional challenge, Malaysia is expected to launch its first local nature-based carbon credit through the Kuamut Rainforest Conservation Project in Sabah, a project that started a little over six years ago.

In Malaysia, state authorities often rely heavily on logging as a source of income, presenting a significant barrier to prioritising the protection or regeneration of forests conducive to carbon credit markets. The allure of immediate economic gains from timber extraction often overshadows the long-term benefits of preventing deforestation or reforesting previously logged areas.

Consequently, allocating resources towards such initiatives becomes challenging, as it requires diverting attention from a lucrative industry deeply entrenched in local economies. Furthermore, Malaysia lacks a carbon tax system to set the price of carbon.

The current dismal pricing of nature-based credits, hovering around US$1.50 – a huge drop from US$8 to US$9 in 2019, largely due to criticism of the credibility and efficacy of carbon credits – undermines the investment incentive for state authorities, as the potential returns may not offset the revenue generated from logging activities.

Thus, the convergence of economic dependency on logging and the undervaluation of nature-based credits creates a formidable barrier to fostering meaningful conservation, let alone reforestation, necessary for carbon credit generation in Malaysia.

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Commentary: For everyone’s sake, companies must stop manipulating their emission reports

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THE ONE, TWO, THREE OF CARBON ACCOUNTING

Scope One emissions refer to direct emissions produced by the company. It accounts for emissions that are released into the atmosphere as a direct result of the companies’ activities, much like cooking dinner in your kitchen, where you’re fully aware of the amount of gas you’re using and the smoke you’re producing.

Scope Two emissions are indirect emissions from purchased electricity consumed by the end-user. Take, for example, the electricity that powers the fans and lights in your kitchen.

Scope Three emissions are also indirect, but they comprise emissions that occur throughout the company’s value chain, including upstream, like transport and distribution, and downstream emissions, like end-of-life waste disposal.

This is akin to emissions from the supermarket where you shop for ingredients to cook. While the supermarket doesn’t belong to you, you’re partially responsible for the emissions from the delivery trucks that bring your ingredients to the store.

Ideally, companies should report emissions across all three scopes, which would ensure a clear picture of companies’ carbon footprint and allow regulators to hold them accountable.

OMITTING SCOPE THREE REPORTING

In reality, companies report Scope One and Two emissions, falling short of Scope Three. Scope Three emissions are difficult to track and trace, especially for companies with complex webs of global supply chains. Some companies, particularly those in polluting industries, also intentionally avoid reporting Scope Three emissions to evade scrutiny.

Missing one out of three reporting scopes may not seem like a big deal – but it is. Carbon Disclosure Project, a non-profit that provides a system for investors, companies and governments to disclose their environmental impact, estimates that Scope Three emissions account for about 70 per cent of a company’s total emissions. This figure rises to nearly 90 per cent for oil and gas companies.

In this context, leaving out Scope Three emissions reporting is akin to solving a jigsaw puzzle without the largest piece – the picture is never complete.

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Commentary: Living dangerously in Jakarta all over again, amid crippling air pollution

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WHAT’S BEING DONE TO CURB JAKARTA’S AIR POLLUTION?

Widodo has called for measures to tackle the pollution, including urging workers to work in a hybrid manner (both online and offline), limiting emissions and urging residents to use mass transport. Longer-term measures include supervising coal-fired power plants, shifting to electric vehicles and providing more open green space.

Officials and politicians seem to have become air pollution experts overnight and scrambled to tackle the chronic pollution by issuing policies and recommendations.

The Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry has formed a task force to tackle the problem, while the government has again recommended people wear a mask for the first time since lifting Covid-19 mandates a year ago. Last week, half of the city’s civil servants were asked to work from home for the next two months, although media associations cast doubt on the move, saying improving public transport is more important.

There was also a bizarre move taken by the Jakarta police and fire department last week that involved spraying water cannons across Jakarta’s thoroughfares, which was claimed to be an effort to reduce air pollution.

How dangerous exactly is the city’s air pollution?

Head of the Indonesian Lung Doctors Association Agus Dwi Susanto has previously said Jakarta’s air pollution emitted from motorised vehicles was as dangerous as cigarette smoke. “Eighty-six per cent of lung cancer is linked to cigarettes and 4 per cent to air pollution,” Agus told local media in 2019.

Last week, Indonesia’s Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said the number of acute respiratory infection cases had risen in Jakarta. “We’ve seen (that) before the COVID-19 pandemic, there were about 50,000, now it’s risen up to 200,000 cases,” he said, blaming air pollution.

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Commentary: ASEAN shouldn’t have high expectations of new G7 climate club

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However, such voluntary clubs are often open to the free-riding problem mentioned above, making them less effective as climate governance mechanisms.

AMBIGUOUS ON MITIGATING FREE-RIDER CHALLENGE

It is unclear under which category of climate club the G7 initiative will fall into. The media release promotes this climate club as one that is “open, cooperative and inclusive” which will seek the participation of all major emitters, including developing countries. 

Yet this does not explain how the G7’s initiative will mitigate the tricky free-rider challenge. One study by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (formerly the Pew Center on Global Climate Change), suggests that if the G7 climate club is too exclusive then it will alienate developing countries. On the other hand, if membership requirements are too lax, there will be no progress in global mitigation.

It is likely that as the G7 climate club takes shape, more defined membership requirements around environmental performance may develop. If one of the membership benefits is the provision of access to G7 markets, this may have important economic consequences for ASEAN. 

Members of the G7 are some of the largest export markets for Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and other regional countries. The risk of losing access to export markets may encourage environmental action at the national level but it can also result in trade disputes such as the recent palm oil conflict between the EU versus Malaysia and Indonesia.

Overly stringent membership criteria may inadvertently drive ASEAN governments closer to less-regulated markets such as China, Russia and India, which are unlikely to demand that their trade partners follow similarly rigorous environmental standards.

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Commentary: India has no idea how many people its heatwaves are killing

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The figure is an estimate based on media reporting cited in one of the first studies to measure the influence of climate change on the disaster. That study admits the two-digit number is likely an underestimate: In the city of Ahmedabad alone, a 2010 heatwave resulted in 1,344 heat-related deaths. So far, however, it’s the closest we’ve got to a figure.

The COVID-19 pandemic gives an insight into why better numbers are lacking. Most deaths have multiple causes. When one is a novel and politicised event such as an epidemic or heatwave, people may tend to either overplay or downplay this factor.

When a 65-year-old with angina has a heart attack on a day when the temperature touched 45 degree Celsius, did they die of heat or heart disease?

That can lead to distorted figures. China changed its standard for attributing coronavirus infection and pressured doctors to name other issues during its outbreak last year, in each case serving to suppress reported mortality.

A common solution to that problem is looking at excess deaths – comparing recorded fatalities with the number you’d expect in a typical year to iron out the effects of reporting bias. One excess-deaths study last year found that as many as 4.9 million people in India had died during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to the 412,000 officially recorded COVID-19 deaths.

TOO MANY UNRECORDED DEATHS

Even that approach may be inadequate in India, however, because the most basic data on mortality is too patchy. Nationwide, roughly 8 per cent of estimated deaths in 2019 went unrecorded, according to an annual government survey, and only 19 per cent of the total were certified by a medical professional, a step considered routine in most countries. 

In Bihar, a province neighbouring Uttar Pradesh on the lower Ganges with a population bigger than Japan’s, just 52 per cent of deaths were recorded and 5.1 per cent were medically certified.

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Commentary: If the 21st century is to be Asia’s century, more attention must be paid to rural communities

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Farmers, smallholders, and peasants are at risk due to droughts, lack of land, changes in commodity prices, and difficulties bringing their produce to markets.

Small-scale fishers need to grapple with higher food and fuel prices, higher ocean temperatures and the continuation of large-scale fishing operations depleting the world’s fish stocks. Efforts to find alternative income sources have been initiated, yet it remains challenging to achieve long-term success. 

In the Philippines, the government has promoted cultivating seaweed to reduce overfishing and expand incomes. It has worked in islands like Southern Mindanao and Palawan, but not everywhere. In areas where seaweed is not thriving, people eventually return to fishing and find jobs elsewhere. 

Another trend is increasing inequality within rural communities. Some fishing boat owners and landowners can increase their assets rapidly while the poorer fishers and farmers are sometimes forced to sell boats or land to make ends meet.

Again, family members consider migration to the city as a solution, but often get stranded in dire circumstances. If educational attainment is low, temporary migrants end up having insecure jobs in the informal economy.

These insights, as well as related observations from Thailand and India demonstrate that despite the ongoing process of urbanisation, poverty reduction and responding to climate change cannot be solved without a proper focus on rural communities. 

If more isn’t done, rural hardships will eventually perpetuate overburdened cities, youth unemployment, and urban poverty.

Dr Edo Andriesse is a Professor in the Department of Geography at Seoul National University.

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Commentary: Southeast Asia’s new imperative to confront brutal heat

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SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND Ocean FROM Bushfires ARE PROTECTED

Heatwaves pose the greatest immediate danger because of how they affect food and water protection. In times of shortage, waters must be stored, distributed, and conserved.

This may entail the Singaporean practices of water filtration, therapy of used water, and rainwater harvesting and collection.

Plants and the water products they require suffer as a result of heatwaves. While producers need to be supported in switching to climate-resistant grain varieties, new agricultural practices that are not water-intensive, like drip water, may be promoted. To reduce not only air pollutants but likewise carbon pollution, laws prohibiting slash and burn crops must be strictly enforced.

Reducing waste can even help with food safety. Every year, up to one-tenth of the world’s GHG emissions — 1.3 billion tonnes — of food produced worldwide is lost or wasted. In Thailand, plantain costs can reach 50 % between the time of harvest and after harvest. In India, only 10 % of perishable foods has warm storage, which results in a 30 % loss of fruits and vegetables.

WORKING IN Continuous Heating

More outdoor workers in South and Southeast Asia will have to work in temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius as a result of more regular wildfires. Government assistance to safeguard employees’ wellness is essential.

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