Commentary: What Donald Trump’s tariffs might end up doing to Taiwan

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TRAVELING IN TAIWAN TO CHINA’S BRACE

If Mr. Trump’s taxes were to go into influence, they might cause Taiwan to feel more firmly knelt with China.

Taiwan is unable to afford a 32 % price, and China is aware of this. Chinese leaders may grant more access to the Chinese market in exchange for significant concessions, such as halting TSMC’s building in Arizona or appointing to move important technologies that are unavailable straight from the United States or Europe.

Most likely, Mr. Trump did find a way to declare success and the tariffs on Chinese goods, or at least on TSMC, won’t be implemented.

Trump taxes are a lose-lose-lose statement for China, Taiwan, and the US, as threatened. Taiwan was experience even greater economic hardship if the tariffs were to be modified as anticipated.

Anne Stevenson-Yang is the co-founder of the stock-research firm J Capital Research USA LLC, and the creator of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Foreign Market, which was released in 2024.

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Commentary: ASEAN isn’t retaliating on US tariffs. That doesn’t mean it’s not responding

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PRAGMATISM ATTENDS REVENUES

Tellingly, some people worry that ASEAN could turn into a “arena of significant power competitors” and that its members might turn into “major energy proxies.” The mutual tariffs started as a trade conflict between the US and China, but they quickly spread to other countries that merely adhered to the” business imbalance” narrative, particularly emerging markets like ASEAN.

Analysts have predicted recession risks to be higher than 60 % as a result of the very aggressive tariffs, which are a common baseline of 10 % for all, including trade surplus nations like Singapore, and additional costs that are a little disproportional to the trade imbalances. Some economists anticipate adding prices, poverty, and inequality to their forecasts.

Unsurprisingly, the bilateral tariffs will probably cause Southeast Asia to distrust US citizens, opening up space for other significant powers to replace them. Prior to Liberation Day, 46.5 percent of the ISEAS survey respondents identified “new US leadership” ( i .e., Mr. Trump ) as their top geopolitical concern, up from 18.8 percent in 2024, which cited the” 2024 US presidential elections” as a source of concern.

Southeast Asians have shifted their views on proper positioning and trust in them regarding global free trade over the past two years between the US and China.

Most Southeast Asians voted with China in 2024, but the US replaced them this year ( 52.3 percent vs. China’s 47 % ) in the poll. In 2024, Southeast Asians had the highest level of confidence in the US’s commitment to the global free trade agenda, but this dropped to China in 2025 ( 20.6 % versus US’ 19 % ).

This demonstrates that Southeast Asia has become more flexible in terms of which big authority it prefers, motivated more by expediency than fidelity.

Ironically, just three ASEAN nations had a culture in which the US was viewed negatively. These three nations also have the highest perceived commitment to ASEAN, which could help to create a compromise there.

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Commentary: Even Hong Kong’s Li family can’t escape the politics of China-US rivalry

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THE Battle

CK Hutchison announced the package on Mar 4. Less than 10 days after, Beijing-controlled paper, Ta Kung Pao, which is based in Hong Kong, published two strongly worded essays, urging the Li home to” stop being naïve and baffled”. They criticised CK Hutchison of being immoral and” selling out all Foreign people”.

This marks the first time Beijing has officially singled out Hong Kong’s most important company for strong criticism in the 27 years since the state’s returning to Taiwanese sovereignty, causing jitters and concerns about the politicisation of business in the local and broader business community.

Beijing’s noticeable loss of composure stems from not being informed of the offer in advance, amid US media reports that BlackRock chairman and CEO Larry Fink called US President Donald Trump to safe his blessing. Mr Trump hailed the offer as part of his administration’s efforts to regain the Panama Canal.

Despite finding themselves in a social surprise, the Li family has remarkably kept its amazing. In reality, the Mar 4 news, which stated that the price was purely commercial in nature and related to politics concerning the Panama ports, remains CK Hutchison’s just public speech to date.

Incensed by the silent treatment, Ta Kung Pao and another pro-Beijing Hong Kong paper Wen Wei Po have published at least 20 media stories and commentaries urging the Li home to listen to “public concerns” and block the deal in the name of national interests and security.

The wrangling reached a climax on Mar 26 when Bloomberg cited sources reporting that CK Hutchison was believed to be moving forward with the deal as scheduled, despite Beijing’s anger over the transaction.

In response, the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office again signalled its displeasure by reposting two articles published by Ta Kung Pao on Mar 26 and 27, criticising CK Hutchison for capitulating to US pressure and sacrificing national interests.

The following day, CK Hutchison finally relented amid reports that the State Administration for Market Regulation in Beijing would investigate the deal” to ensure fair competition” and” safeguard the public interest”.

Until then, Beijing had hoped that intense media pressure would suffice to persuade the Li family to pause the deal, mindful of the potential impact on business confidence in Hong Kong and China if it intervened directly.

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Commentary: USAID absence after the deadly Myanmar earthquake speaks volumes

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NO ONE ELSE CAN MAKE UP THE SHORTFALL

Expecting international institutions and massive foundations to fill financing gaps left by USAID is also fraught. The Trump administration’s cuts to international aid deals have greatly impacted the skill of disaster-response groups run by the United Nations and organisations like International Rescue Committee to provide important food, medication and supplies to effected parts of Myanmar. &nbsp,

However, US allies in the Indo-Pacific are feeling pressure to fill the gaps the US has left on. South Korea has previously pledged US$ 2 million in humanitarian assistance via international institutions supporting disaster recovery work, and the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has promised to provide all possible help.

Today, Japan and South Korea provide 13 per cent and 9 per cent of the annual aid directed to Southeast Asia, respectively. But, like the US, Japan and South Korea are dealing with their own economic woes and turmoil at home, and they are not in the position to backfill the millions provided by USAID to the region each year. In Japan, public support for expanding economic development assistance has fallen to the weakest level in the past decade.

While China won’t step in to replace America’s aid profile, its swift response to the Myanmar earthquake provides us with a glance into a future where it plays an expanded role in Southeast Asia’s development landscape on its own terms. &nbsp,

The Trump administration promised an” America First” approach to foreign policy, but by gutting USAID, it has significantly weakened American soft power and opened the door for expanded Chinese influence and leverage in Southeast Asia.

Bryanna Entwistle is a Press and Program Officer at Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.

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Commentary: Why China is suddenly flooding the market with powerful AI models

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AI IMPLEMENTS INTERNATIONALLY

Most US tech companies currently enshrine AI as a unique resource, limiting access to their most effective types hidden behind paywalls. OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic restrict access to their most sophisticated AI types, which they provide through subscription plans like paid subscriptions and business deals.

The US government is concerned about security risks associated with open-source AI, citing the possibility that illegal designs may be refined to fit into cyberweapons. In response to national security concerns, US lawmakers are now pushing to outlaw DeepSeek AI software from federal devices.

However, Foreign technology companies are acting in a very unique way. By using open-source AI, they avoid US sanctions, decentralize growth, and use international skill to improve their models. When China’s models can train and improve themselves on alternate hardware, Nvidia’s high-end chips also have less of an impact.

Through repetition, AI develops. Every new version improves the previous one, improving its shortcomings, enhancing functions, and increasing productivity. Chinese tech companies create an ecology where world programmers can continuously improve their models through empty purchasing AI models, without having to pay all the development costs. &nbsp,

The potential impact of this strategy could ultimately alter AI’s monetary structure. The ability to marketize AI as an unique product is a collapse if open-source AI gains the same level of power as custom US models. Why pay for finished versions when there is a free, comparable option?

This tactic could be a potent tool in the US-China software conflict for Beijing. US AI businesses that are built on business licensing and superior services may find themselves in a race to the bottom where there is ample AI but obscure profits.

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Commentary: Watching India’s approach to navigating Trump 2.0

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AN ASIAN MODEL OF DEALING WITH DONALD TRUMP

Asia says may see, with curiosity, India’s approach to managing the problems posed by a subsequent Trump presidency.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue ( Quad ) could be one area where India could possibly be asked to do more in the security domain, as a key initiative to counter China.

While Southeast Asia had been tepid to this four-power system ( which also includes US, Australia and Japan ), a reinvigorated Quad could be seen as a positive development, contributing to a stable balance of power within East Asia. Southeast Asia was possibly expect a more noticeable role for India in the region, with the possibility of the joint India-Russia sonic BrahMos weapon finding buyers beyond the Philippines, especially since the US has signalled the need for countries to do more for their own safety. &nbsp,

In making bargains, downplaying variations and turning on the charm, India may offer an intriguing Eastern model of how to deal with the Trump presidency.

Dr Sinderpal Singh is&nbsp, Assistant Director and&nbsp, Coordinator of the South Asia Programme and Regional Security Architecture Programme, at the&nbsp, S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, &nbsp, Nanyang Technological University.

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Commentary: In Trump and Musk’s America, echoes of China’s past emerge

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For one thing, Mao’s Red Guards are invincible with Musk’s fresh specialists, who are equipped with AI and technical skills to identify and reduce federal waste and inadequacy. Media reports so far have indicated that they have done a very good work, having let go of nearly ten thousand governmental employees.

With a budget of US$ 42 billion, the president’s foreign aid organization, the United States Agency for International Development ( USAID), to the delight of Taiwanese officials and state media, has become the first big ministry to be cut short. Chinese leaders have accused USAID of funding international media outlets and non-governmental organizations to” stain” China.

CHINA’S OWN BLOATED BUREAUCRACY

However, Foreign leaders should not just be content to entertain themselves as spectators enjoying themselves. Instead, they ought to be inspired to examine China’s government, which is overburdened and ineffective at all levels. Red tape has grown to be one of the biggest stumbling blocks for China’s efforts to reenergize its weak market.

Over the past century, as China’s administration has called for tighter controls over all levels of Taiwanese society, China’s bureaucracy has become even more extreme, overbearing, complex, and disruptive. For example, private companies have long complained about uneven treatment in terms of market entry and legal security, as opposed to state-owned companies.

The solution? The leadership has established a brand-new bureaucracy called the Bureau of Private Economy at both the national and local levels, with the aim of improving support for the private sector. However, many businesspeople remain skeptical because what they really want is a place where everyone is treated equally, not just a new layer of bureaucracy.

Ironically, China’s leadership has openly acknowledged that red tape has impeded the implementation of government policies and snarled the country’s economic recovery. Over the past four years, a campaign to combat the so-called “formalism and bureaucratism” among the country’s millions of officials has been raging to great fanfare but without much success. Cai Qi, the chief of staff of President Xi Jinping, has spearheaded the campaign, underscoring the importance the leadership places on it.

The initiative has so far been designed to ease and lessen the burdens placed on local officials who are faced with mountains of paperwork and interminable meetings. Officials frequently have a lot of time to complete paperwork for agencies that request overlapping information or receive inspection teams that simply act as they please, leaving little time for performing their duties. However, the government is only addressing the symptoms of the problem rather than the root cause, which is an increasingly clogged bureaucracy where bureaucrats carry out trivial tasks to support their work.

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Commentary: Trump’s summits with Kim Jong Un have all failed. Why would the next one be any different?

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THERE IS NO DEAL WITHOUT US Agreements

Socially and strategically, North Korea and the US are very different. Their variations may become resolved by a second, extraordinary hammer-stroke, like a mountain among “friends” as Mr Trump insists he and Mr Kim are.

Mr. Trump needs to make a thorough give to Mr. Kim if he wants to reach an agreement. In fact, he probably needs to offer some different, extensive offers, so that there is space for him and Mr Kim to make transfers and trades when they disagree. These presents also need to have buy-in from important events in Washington- the Defense Department, State Department, Congress, the North Korea-watching think-tank neighborhood- and South Korea.

Any deal Mr. Trump strikes faces administrative weight if he doesn’t have backing from significant US and South Korean constituencies. When then-President Bill Clinton reached a bargain with North Korea in the 1990s without the help of the Congressional Republicans, this is what happened.

Second, Mr Trump’s offers may include compromises from the US. North Korea won’t simply denuclearize because of US risks, ambiguous financial offers, or upcoming concessions. Mr Trump has previously tried that, clumsily.

This will be tough. No one wants to offer any concessions to Pyongyang, especially given how terrible the program is. But without some form of bargain, North Korea did not discuss. We learnt that between 2017 and 2019.

US concessions may include a raising of United Nations sanctions, financial support, some degree of political reputation, a adjustment of US forces on the Vietnamese Peninsula, and so on. These US agreements may be traded for North Vietnamese counter-concessions. Pyongyang will never completely denuclearise, but demanding that- as Mr Trump did in Hanoi- may end the negotiations.

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Commentary: DeepSeek and Huawei show US restrictions didn’t burst China’s tech ambitions. They made them bigger

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The effects of this technology dispersion are significant. For buyers, it means a world of irreconcilable requirements, with Harmony OS probably becoming a major system across the Global South where China’s effect is growing. The product’s success in China’s enormous domestic sector alone would make it a force to be reckoned with, even though non-Chinese companies face significant obstacles in their implementation.

For companies, the issue is even more serious. Companies increasingly face an impossible decision: Maintain exposure to the Chinese market and danger US restrictions, or coincide with US legislation and experience Chinese retribution.

Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s perception of a” little garden, great gate” approach has morphed into an ever-expanding backyard with significantly higher fences.

The broad US silicon controls implemented in soon 2024, followed by former President Joe Biden’s three-tier AI controls as his government’s last volley, demonstrate this ongoing mission creep.

Washington has responded by casting an even wider net over critical technologies like advanced AI chips and ultra-fast memory chips used for advanced computing as each new restriction has been undermined by Chinese workarounds and inconsistent US application.

Beijing’s evolving counter-strategy, from targeting American drone maker Skydio’s battery supply chain, a ban on the export of dual-use commodities, notably graphite, germanium, gallium and antimony to launching probes into US chip exports, signals a clear escalation in its response to Washington’s containment efforts.

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Commentary: A Xi appearance at Trump’s inauguration would give China the upper hand

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IF CHINA AND THE US REALLY WANTED TO COMBINE?

Following the end of the war of resistance against Japanese aggression in 1945, Chiang Kai-shek, mind of the KMT-led republican government, invited Mao, mind of the Marxist forces, to the military funds of Chongqing to explore China’s future and the relationship between the two rival parties.

Mao traveled to Chongqing for 43 days of discussions, known as the Chongqing Agreements, under the supervision of the US and encouraged by the next Soviet Union, which led to a peace agreement known as the Double Tenth Agreement. Mao’s image of a sensible man seeking peace was captured in the eyes of the international community as a result of the two long-standing opponents ‘ failure to honor the contract and the civil war that ended with the success of the Communists and the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949.

Today, the US-China connection is at a critical juncture, with both nations confronting each other on issues ranging from industry and technologies to place, Taiwan, Hong Kong and human rights. Xi’s acceptance of Trump’s invitation presents an opportunity that should not be missed in light of growing concerns that the bilateral relationship will further deteriorate. As China’s top leader has repeatedly said, both countries stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.

Interesting is how Trump asserted to reporters on December 17 that Beijing and Washington could” solve all of the problems of the world” together. Given Trump’s impulsive and unpredictable nature, it is hard to know if he means what he says.

However, his sweeping statement focuses on the most important factor to ensure global peace: Beijing and Washington should reevaluate a G2 relationship model, which will allow them to create a competitive and cooperative relationship to address bilateral issues and address global issues.

In response to his recent trip to China, Thomas Friedman, a columnist for the New York Times, suggested that Beijing and Washington should work together to combat a much bigger issue: disorder. I could not agree more.

Friedman suggested that Trump should look into a” Nixon goes to China” strategy in order to achieve the desperately needed rapprochement between the two nations for a stable 21st century.

Drawing from history and given the high stakes, China’s leadership should seriously consider a move of” Xi goes to Washington”, to gain the upper hand.

Wang Xiangwei is a former Editor-In-Chief of South China Morning Post. He is currently a journalist at Hong Kong Baptist University.

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