Snap Insight: India and Pakistan are on the brink, but war is not inevitable

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Pakistan MUST KNOW ITS CALIBRATED RESPONSE

Pakistan will undoubtedly use some form of military force in response to India’s attacks. But, it will need to adjust this so that there is no place in which tensions escalate.

However, such cries and deeds should be taken as attempts to raise the bar so that other nations press India to reevaluate its location on the sharing of river waters.

Additionally, it is important to mention that Pakistan’s military aid has increased as a result of the conflicts with India and the hits. Over the past few years, there have been numerous large protests and opposition against the defense, which has a significant influence on the country’s politics.

These rallies have been stopped because of the current issue. The defense will need to show its ability to react to attacks, so it will be aware not to undermine its newly discovered support by raising military tensions beyond what the general public is bear.

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Commentary: Has China’s great relocation helped Southeast Asia industrialise? 

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SINGAPORE: In recent years, manufacturers in China have increasingly moved production to Southeast Asia as a result of rising labor costs, geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-China trade war, and efforts to diversify supply chains ( the” China Plus One” strategy ). This echoes Japan’s production transfer, which contributed to the region’s industrialization during the 1980s and 1990s.

But the question remains: Will China’s” Great Relocation” encourage Southeast Asia’s long-term growth, or will it continue to languish in the middle-class and be unable to advance in both technology and performance? The benefits of this move may be in jeopardized as the US then threatens to impose severe new tariffs on exports from Southeast Asian nations. &nbsp,

Investing, experimenting, and innovating

Southeast Asia’s leads for additional industrialization will depend on a number of variables related to China’s financial commitment to the area. The World Bank’s three I’s model, which include investment, injection, and innovation, can be used to analyze these. &nbsp,

Size and type of investment in the region affect the effect of China’s purchase. Foreign new foreign direct investment ( FDI) in ASEAN producing increased from US$ 6.1 billion between 2016 and 2019 to US$$ 2.9 billion between 2020 and 2023 on average. Both times saw significantly higher monthly average annual sales of Chinese new FDI in the manufacturing sector than those from the US, Japan, and South Korea. &nbsp,

A third of Southeast Asia’s production investment in 2023 came from China only. Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia were among the top 15 countries in the world that received Chinese producing FDI between 2016 and 2023, according to five ASEAN nations.

In nations like Cambodia and Vietnam, the total Chinese manufacturing FDI between 2016 and 2023 was significantly higher than their total manufacturing value added and merchandise exports in 2016 ( the base year ). For instance, between 2016 and 2023, China’s full FDI to Cambodia was US$ 2 billion, compared to its full FDI of US$ 3 billion and US$ 8.5 billion in goods imports. &nbsp,

Depending on the type of purchase, manufacturing operations can have a variety of enhancement advantages. Important minerals that have been processed in China are mostly returned to China through expense that is capital-intensive and resource-oriented, such as those made by Indonesia’s processing and running industries.

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Commentary: Why importing more will not save Thailand from Trump’s tariffs

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TERMS OF Expansion

If the Thai government also think about diversifying exports in addition to its efforts to boost US goods? Given the size and breadth of the US business, it is still unclear how many Thailand can or should cut out of it.

Growth requires a wider reorganization of global supply chains to lessen dominance and improve resilience. It also involves finding new customers outside the US. This is especially important for Thai manufacturers who manufacture initial equipment ( OEM), such as those that make photosensitive equipment and image sensors.

These businesses frequently work for large multinational corporations on contracts, providing highly specialized elements within strongly integrated global value chains. These manufacturers frequently tether producers firmly to a few powerful lead companies. Thai manufacturers are unable to make changes to their industry due to this.

One approach has been to expand free trade agreements (FTAs ). Thailand already has 15 FTAs in place with colleagues. By facilitating market entry and promoting regional integration, international systems like ASEAN and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership increase trade possible. Additionally, new partnerships with coalitions like the Pacific Alliance and the Southern Common Market ( also known as MERCOSUR) &nbsp offer claim.

But, signing more FTAs presents its own set of difficulties. Compliance with laws of nature needs for businesses can be expensive and challenging, which could limit the potential benefits of expanded trade agreements.

While expanding FTAs opens up new markets and boosting economic development, addressing the complexity of conformity and making sure that businesses can rely on these agreements to achieve their goals will be key to their success.

The Thai government may go beyond a quick-term strategy and mobilize resources to address non-tariff restrictions, reorganize supply stores, and boost private business competitiveness. This includes a focus on regulatory transformation, funding in R&D, and targeted fiscal policies.

Thailand runs the risk of losing its competitive advantage in global value chains and experiencing long-term disruption without a coherent plan.

Wannaphong Durongkaveroj is an Associate Professor at Ramkhamhaeng University, Thailand’s Ramkhamhaeng University, and a Visiting Fellow at the Yusof Ishak Institute. This remark first appeared on the Fulcrum site of the Yusof Ishak Institute’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

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Commentary: Malaysia’s fake birth certificates scandal exposes a deeper crisis

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PARENT DESPERATION AND THE ADOPTION Jungle

The adoption process is challenging for Malay people because it involves abandoned children. &nbsp,

Muslim and non-Muslim children have different implementation rules, but the choice of faith is frequently left up to the child’s parents. Parents must fight an uphill struggle to obtain birth certificates and citizenship for their babies, yet after navigating the adoption process.

Some people turn to middlemen and improper channels to get documents because of bureaucratic inertia and unfair practices. Adoptive parents frequently choose to register the baby as their physiological offspring, erasing the child’s true parents. &nbsp,

This is not just a law enforcement error; it is also a condition error in establishing a decent, efficient method for implementation and membership.

THE DEADLY RESULTS OF CRIMINALISING ABANDONMENT

The Malaysian system’s punishment for child abandonment only adds to the problems. Mothers – frequently solitary and vulnerable – are feared for abandoning newborns in illegal conditions because of fear of prosecution. It is known as “baby dumping” in Malaysia. Surprisingly, 60 % of left children are discovered dead. &nbsp,

The legislation pushes these women into despair, perpetuating a cycle of tragedy, rather than supporting them or offering healthy alternatives.

Malaysia needs not seem much for answers. Morocco, an Islamic country that once experienced a similar orphan crisis, introduced radical changes to its family law ( Mudawana ) in 2004 and expanded its efforts to promote women’s rights in 2024. One of the first changes was the decriminalization of baby abandonment, as well as the creation of clear constitutional channels for adoption through kafala, an Islamist guardianship system that preserves the child’s lineage while placing them in loving homes.

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Commentary: India wants a strong response to deadly Kashmir attack – it needs a calibrated one

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Second, this incident and India’s likely response will put an end to a period of relative tranquility in Kashmir since 2019 and since 2021, when both parties agreed to a ceasefire along the Line of Control ( LOC ) in Kashmir. The BJP-led state wanted to use the Kashmir state elections, which were held in October 2024, as evidence of the state’s close to widespread violence and terrorism, and the Pahalgam strike upended the notion of “normalcy” having returned to the Kashmir valley.

Second, given the potential retaliation from Pakistan, an increase, and international pressure, India may be concerned about how to evaluate it despite the enormous pressure to react physically. The dangers of such an increase were demonstrated in the 2019 event.

While India would prefer to halt the hostilities, it is in Pakistan’s best interest to allow things to rise and use the threat of nuclear weapons to stifle third-party treatment, to a limited extent. Pakistan has previously attempted to internationalize the Kashmir conflict, but India has regularly argued that it must be resolved solely by the two nations.

Pakistan has previously reaffirmed that it would be “act of war” to block or divert allocated liquid, and it has “reacted with full force across the entire range of national power.”

The United States has always urged both edges to be cautious in order to stop the conflict from escalating. The Trump administration has supported India in the wake of the harm this period, but it has not criticized Pakistan.

Pakistan’s request for an independent foreign investigation into the Pahalgam attacks has been supported by China, which has urged restriction on both sides. Pakistan denies any involvement in the attacks. An American military strike, under the leadership of Pakistan and China, could increase international pressure on it, especially if hostilities do not stop right away.

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Commentary: Trump’s tariffs are an opportunity for Indonesia to advance its interests

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INTEGRATING WITH WASHINGTON

The Trump taxes give Indonesia a boost to change its economic plan by diversifying its cooperation and partnerships. Through these actions, Indonesia maintains its impartiality to big powers while exerting its impact in local affairs, which also contributes to the nation’s “free and energetic” foreign policy. &nbsp,

First of all, the levies offer an opportunity to improve the relationship between the US and Indonesia. Mr. Prabowo called Mr. Trump to congratulate him on winning the election, and the two men exchanged warm terms.

One of Indonesia’s most important security and economic colleagues is still the US. The two nations pledged to work toward a stronger and more productive Indo-Pacific by elevating their relationship status to a” complete proper relationship” in 2023.

While this was the case during the administrations of their predecessors Joe Biden and Joko Widodo, Indonesia should think about reaffirming the relationship and discussing its future plans when negotiating with the US on business. By doing this, Indonesia both emphasizes its commitment to the area and points out its credibility as a trusted US companion in Southeast Asia.

Additionally, it is possible for Indonesia and the US to look into new trade routes, such as those involving crucial materials, which Indonesia is a big supplier of.

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Commentary: In US-China rivalry, Southeast Asia is no one’s prize. Why do we insist otherwise?

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BUILD ON THE POTENTIAL OF REGION

Beijing clearly reminded the place that” China is a great country and other countries are smaller countries, and that’s just a point” at an ASEAN-led conference, no less. Additionally, South China Sea claimants are well aware of what a geographically extreme China is capable of. &nbsp,

Given Southeast Asia’s significance in the world technological value chain, Beijing’s most recent caution against any deals between the United States and other nations “at the cost of Taiwanese interests” is timely.

Trump, however, has also made it clear that it will revert to its royal instincts, declaring in his second inaugural address that” the United States will once again regard itself as a growing country… one that raises our expectations, raises our expectations, and carries our symbol into new and beautiful perspectives.”

Trump’s America First policy is merely an unfiltered reflection of the long-standing utilitarian US policy toward Southeast Asia, which has seen a number of revisions over the years, starting with the intellectual conflict that divided the continent from the intense Global War on Terror, which declared much of maritime Southeast Asia the” next front” of its campaign. &nbsp,

Beijing and Washington battle it out in the race for scientific supremacy, bringing the region’s significance back into focus once more.

On the political, financial, and socio-cultural fronts, Southeast Asia has undoubtedly benefited from competing major power statecraft. Plan leaders instead of rehashing old arguments about why the area matters to the self-interested stare of metropoles near and far may be better served in the 21st century by utilizing Southeast Asia’s shared ability in novel and inventive ways. &nbsp,

After all, if the earth is to be rearranged, but really its stories.

Elina Noor is a senior colleague in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. The Interpreter, the Lowy Institute’s blogging, originally contained this remark.

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Commentary: Would Asia welcome trade deals that exclude China?

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A Alliance ON A FAIRER Business

People in Asia was now trying to lessen China’s presence in the manufacturing industry. Suppliers and policymakers in this country are concerned that Chinese overcapacity did overflow their household areas with cheap imports as markets in the West shut themselves to Chinese goods.

However, these nations ‘ opportunities aren’t always in line with one another. They are competing with one another to take the place of Taiwanese suppliers in particular industries, for instance. Some would want to” cheat” any final agreement by doing so as much as possible with Chinese goods, or by assembling goods for a lower-than-us price in factories on the mainland.

To bring these various passions up, something else will be required. It’s unclear what the US has to sell if both support and business are on the board.

Trump believes that having access to US consumers is much of a vegetable, but the benefits of that business may not be as promising for nations that are locked in a race against one another and Beijing. After all, if China is ordered to leave their supply stores, it may cause too much of an increase in their costs to enter the US marketplace.

A coalition for fairer business may require customized strategies for each of these nations. He needs his employer to play on, even if Bessent can figure it out. Any agreement will necessitate Trump’s eagerness to tussle over the details and respect for these nations ‘ freedom.

Trump has promised to communicate with “more than 75” nations, according to him, who allegedly reached out to the US. He will have to acknowledge that the majority of his Eastern partners aren’t trying to defraud the US in any such negotiations.

After Xi’s trip to Vietnam, the president claimed the meeting’s goal was to” try to figure out, how do we screw the United States of America”; however, for a change of heart seems unlikely.

A business partnership that excludes China, guarantees that US local laws and higher standards won’t make its producers unprofitable, and establishes new provide chains that include US workers will be beneficial.

Trump actually requires a cooperative effort with supporters across the Pacific Ocean in order to accomplish his goals. A trans-Pacific relationship, if you will.

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Commentary: With Southeast Asia hard hit by Trump tariffs, here’s what ASEAN can do next

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WHAT ASEAN DOES NEXT

The next phase of ASEAN’s reaction will need to consider these international interests. It can help to complete a command vacuum in internationalism. There are two concepts that ASEAN now practises that can guide behavior and assistance.

Second, if ASEAN does what’s in its objectives consistent with its principles, that may contribute to global efforts to protect the rules-based international trading system.

That includes avoiding retribution that would just take more economic problems, using actions consistent with laws and organizations ASEAN has committed to, and continuing to work as a group. Deviating from those guiding rules perhaps understand ASEAN.

Second is to guard and practise ASEAN importance. ASEAN is not only key to its East Eastern member states, it is key to broader Eastern cooperation. ASEAN should use its importance, or chance losing it.

ASEAN may find willing companions in its own place. The foreign ministers of China, Japan and South Korea met a few days before the news of Mr Trump’s taxes, agreeing to simultaneously listen to US taxes and “to improve the deployment of RCEP”, referring to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the 15-country free trade agreement that was created and is led by ASEAN.

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Commentary: Is the Russian air force coming to Indonesia?

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STRANGER Items

Additionally, Prabowo wants to improve diplomatic ties with Russia, including in terms of defense. Prabowo, who serves as president-elect and minister of defense, has traveled to Russia four occasions, most recently in July 2024. Sergei Shoigu, the former head of the Soviet security government and former head of Russia’s defense, traveled to Jakarta in February 2025. &nbsp,

According to Janes, Russia requested the use of the atmosphere base on Biak Island both at that appointment or immediately afterward.

There is intriguing evidence that there may be a connection between the new Janes story and the 2017 explore by Russian tactical bombers to Biak.

It was not clear why Indonesia had agreed to host the refueling vision, as previously noted. But, at the time, Russia and Indonesia were negotiating the price of 11 Su-35 fighter jets for US$ 1.14 billion. Russia may have requested access to Manuhau Air Base as part of that agreement ( Vietnam has a similar agreement for naval and air deployments to Cam Ranh Bay ). &nbsp,

The Su-35 agreement was signed in 2018 but fell apart three years later, supposedly as a result of the danger of US restrictions. However, the purchase of Russian warrior jets may now be resumed under Jokowi. Did Moscow push the envelope by offering Indonesia a refund on the plane in exchange for the right to land on Biak?

In the end, it was always unlikely that Indonesia would accept Russia’s ask according to independence issues and Indonesia’s foreign plan principles. However, strange items have occurred.

Ian Storey is a senior colleague at the Yusof Ishak Institute’s ISEAS. This commentary initially appeared on the Fulcrum blog of the Yusof Ishak Institute’s ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute.

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