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MANILA: In political gatherings, Senate hearings and voting research ahead of Monday’s ( May 12 ) midterm elections in the Philippines, China has been an overpowering- and unusual- appearance.
The ghost of its huge sea ally has loomed over the Philippines for years, but as the government’s two most prominent political clans flex their muscles in the typically low-key method to get senators and local government leaders, relations with China have emerged as a social lightning rod.
The results may ending up shaping the country’s corporate branding over the remaining third of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s six-year expression, which began in 2022.
” Will we allow ourselves to return to the time when our leaders wanted us to become a province of China? ” Marcos asked voters at a rally in February, in a dig at predecessor Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter Sara, who is currently vice-president and a key Marcos rival.
During his 2016 to 2022 term, Duterte shifted foreign policy on China, adopting conciliatory rhetoric and downplaying disputes in the South China Sea.
The strategy drew concern from Washington and raised questions about the Philippines ‘ longstanding security alliance with the United States.
In contrast, Marcos has moved to rekindle and deepen ties with Washington.
” These are hot button issues that many Filipino voters can relate to, particularly on the issue on China. There was a time in the past when foreign policy did not really matter that much during elections,” said Ederson Tapia, professor of public administration at the University of Makati.
” But now it does. “
An April survey found that a majority of voters in the country of 110 million prefer candidates who assert Philippine sovereignty in the South China Sea, where the Marcos-led administration has taken a more assertive stance in its maritime confrontations with Beijing, which continue unabated.
It is a sentiment that Marcos has tapped into since he started his campaign for the slate of Senate candidates that he is backing.
In the February rally, Marcos pointed to his candidates, saying:” None of them were applauding China when our coast guard was being bombed with water, when our fishermen were being blocked, when their catch was stolen, and our islands seized to become part of another country. “
China’s embassy in Manila did not respond to questions from Reuters.
The Duterte camp enjoyed a surge of sympathy when he was arrested by the International Criminal Court in March and taken to The Hague, but Marcos ‘ candidates remain ahead in polls and appear poised to dominate the Senate race.
A Duterte spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
Through a months-long campaign, Marcos has kept up the pressure and focused on China as a key election issue, while his allies have taken aim at Sara Duterte for her silence on China’s actions.
Sara, a likely future presidential candidate, was once a Marcos ally but now faces an impeachment trial on charges including a threat to assassinate the president if she herself was harmed.
In the Philippines, the 24-member Senate acts as the jury in any impeachment trial, making the midterms even more consequential in determining Sara Duterte’s political future.
Sara, who has denied wrongdoing, has responded to her impeachment with defiance, asking the Supreme Court to nullify the complaint against her.
A strong mandate for Marcos would not only define his ability to govern decisively in the remaining three years of his term, but would also shape the 2028 presidential race, said Victor Andres” Dindo” Manhit, a political analyst and founder of Stratbase Group, a research and advisory firm.
Marcos is limited to a single term under the Constitution and is expected to anoint a successor. If she survives impeachment, Sara Duterte would also be eligible to run in 2028.
” Those who will run need to be tested on consistency with regard to these issues,” Manhit said, referring to the protection of Philippines ‘ maritime rights and sovereignty.
” And one of them is the current vice-president. She has not spoken against this coercion by China. “
A spokesperson for Sara Duterte did not respond to a request for comment.
The midterm election comes amid a proliferation of disinformation in the Philippines. Up to 45 per cent of discussions about the elections on social media have been driven by inauthentic accounts, Reuters reported last month.
The use of fake accounts and paid influencers for political operations is widespread in the Philippines, but a top security official and a senator alleged last month that Chinese state-sponsored groups might be attempting to influence Filipinos.
China’s foreign ministry and its embassy in Manila have rejected the accusations.
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The armed troops of China just unfurled the national flag on a contested reef in the South China Sea, according to experts, in what is thought to be the first public display of what had previously been quiet actions in decades.
In contrast to how Chinese fishermen, sea army, and also human organizations have placed flags on contested reefs, rocks, and islands in the controversial waterway since the 1990s, observers claim that China’s most recent action is a sharp display of power meant to show its willingness to deal with potential escalation in the midst of rising tensions with the United States.
They add that the construction of Sandy Cay, a series of three abandoned sandbars close to a Spanish military post in the disputed Spratly Islands, also serves as a reassuring reminder to local audiences that Beijing continues to hold its ground on fundamental rights, such as independence, and to present strength as external pressure rises.
Foreign state broadcaster CCTV reported on April 25 that its coastline guard” as part of sea control activities to proclaim Beijing’s sovereignty” had landed on Sandy Cay.
The beach guard, according to the journalist, has “implemented power” over Tiexian Reef, a part of the Sandy Cay have. Four members of the crew, all wearing black combat products, were seen posing with the Chinese national flag after leaving the reef on an inflated dinghy.
The Philippine Coast Guard posted a picture of its officers raising the flag on the disputed coral on April 28. It stated that the vision had taken place the day before dawn, which was seen as a strong refutation of China’s claim to sovereignty.
The developments come as part of the US and Philippines ‘ largest joint military exercises ever conducted in nearby waters. In response to what Washington views as growing Chinese confidence in the region, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently traveled to Asia and made a pledge to “restore punishment” and improve security ties with Manila.
It’s primarily metaphorical, for the time being. It’s minor provocations coming from both sides at a very low levels. Adib Zalkapli, the managing chairman of Lens Global Affairs and an expert in the Indo-Pacific, said that the situation is not yet “alarming.”
Another experts said that the move shows that China is drawing a line in the sand to declare its unwavering support for territorial disputes and additional pressure.
A reminder to the Philippines against furthering its defense cooperation with the US is given, according to Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia program.
China asserts almost the whole South China Sea, a position that recurs with that of some other nations and territories, and contradicts a 2016 worldwide tribunal ruling that rejected Beijing’s claims of ownership of the disputed islands and waters.
Thitu Island, the Philippines ‘ largest and most strategically important outpost in the Spratly Islands, is close to Sandy Cay. In the South China Sea, China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan each have overlapping regional states, among which the island bars, islands, and stones.
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