Commentary: Tourists are flocking to heatwave zones to experience 56°C temperatures. Why?

Perhaps they might want to reflect on the fact that Earth has already warmed by around 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times.

Many may not realise that even if worldwide fossil fuel combustion was immediately eliminated, the roughly 0.5 degrees Celsius cooling contribution of atmospheric aerosols – also the result of existing fossil fuel combustion – would rapidly dissipate through gravitational settling and precipitation scavenging of these aerosols.

This would cause the Earth to warm rapidly to around 1.6 to 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The warming does not end there, as the planet is on course to go well above 2 degrees Celsius in the decades ahead once reduced aerosol cooling, permafrost melt and other greenhouse gases are taken into account.

I suspect that these travellers are unaware that when these other pesky greenhouse gases are included, the net radiative effect is equivalent to 523 ppm CO2e, of which only 417 ppm is from CO2 alone.

THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Governments worldwide have signed on to the 2015 Paris Agreement committing nations to collectively limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The Paris Agreement might appear promising. But the reality is that the 1.5 degrees Celsius guardrail cannot be met, and that socioeconomic inertia prevents us from even staying below the 2 degrees Celsius threshold. Even if every country met its promised emissions reductions, global mean temperatures would still soar past 2 degrees Celsius.