CNA Explains: China’s population shrank again. How will this affect the rest of the world?

Why is this happening?

Observers attributed China’s latest population decline to a wave of pandemic deaths early in 2023, after the world’s second largest economy abruptly dismantled its strict zero-COVID regime.

Last year, overall deaths went up 6.6 per cent to 11.1 million, with the death rate reaching its highest level since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution.

Meanwhile, new births fell 5.7 per cent to 9.02 million in 2023. 

Births in China have been dropping for decades due to a combination of rapid urbanisation and a draconian one-child policy imposed from 1980 to 2015.

The birth rate was a record low of 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023, down from 6.77 the previous year.

This is comparable with advanced East Asian countries like Japan – 6.3 – and South Korea at 4.9.

China is following in the footsteps of these societies, said Dr Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow with the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore.

Its population fall is similarly driven by long-term socio-demographic factors including delayed marriage, rising singlehood, changing lifestyles and values, and the high costs of childcare, education and housing.

In China, the average cost of raising a child until the age of 18 was 485,000 yuan (US$67,000) in 2019 – nearly seven times the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and much higher than elsewhere including the United States and Japan, according to Beijing-based think tank YuWa Population Research Institute.

Many Chinese have also chosen to shun parenthood as they continue facing job uncertainties and low wages, said observers. 

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Commentary: No, North Korea is not going to start a war

TALK IS CHEAP

North Korea has long used explosive rhetoric in its relationship with South Korea and the US. It now faces a “boy who cried wolf” problem.

Even if Mr Kim means what he says this time, even if he plans to strike, there is no way for outsiders to know that he means it this time. Pyongyang routinely talks about annihilating its enemies, nuking Washington, turning Seoul into a sea of fire, and so on.

Outside media tends to latch onto particularly outlandish comments from the leadership, but South Koreans have long since tuned all this stuff out. Mr Kim and his officials simply have no rhetorical credibility anymore.

CRISES FOLLOW SOUTH KOREAN AND AMERICAN DOMESTIC POLITICS

In 2010, 2013, and 2017, there were analogous war crises. In 2010, North Korea military actions against South Korea killed 50 people; in 2013, North Korea told foreigners to evacuate South Korea because war was imminent; in 2017, Mr Kim and former US president Donald Trump exchanged nuclear threats. We are now in a similar situation.

A thread links these four “crises” – the rise of hawkish presidents in South Korea and the US. In each instance, a more belligerent South Korea or US president entered office, taking a tougher line on the North.

Current South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol has done the same. And in each instance, North Korea’s response was to aggressively push back, pursuing a manner of offensive deterrence with extreme retaliatory threats.

Eventually, temperatures dropped after the North made its point – again – that it will fight. This is likely the case this time too, although there are some lingering risks.

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Commentary: China’s population shrinks for the 2nd consecutive year – here’s what this means for the world

DEATHS CLIMBING AS BIRTHS FALL

The death rate is climbing as an inevitable result of the population ageing, and also an upsurge of COVID-19 in the first few months of 2023.

The population is ageing mainly because the birth rate is falling.

China’s total fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, was fairly flat at about 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under China’s one-child policy. But it then fell to 1.28 in 2020, to 1.08 in 2022 and is now around 1, which is way below the level of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population.

By way of comparison, Australia and the United States have fertility rates of 1.6. In 2023 South Korea had the world’s lowest rate, 0.72.

China abandoned its one-child policy in 2016. In 2021 the country introduced a three-child policy, backed by tax and other incentives.

But births are continuing to fall. In part this is because of an established one-child norm, in part because the one-child policy cut the number of women of child-bearing age, and in part because economic pressures are making parenthood less attractive.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics says employees of enterprises work an average of 49 hours per week, more than nine hours per day. Women graduates earn less than men and are increasingly postponing having children.

One hope is that 2024 will see a bump in births, being the year of the dragon in Chinese astrology, a symbol of good fortune.

Some families may have chosen to postpone childbirth during the less auspicious year of the rabbit in 2023. At least one study has identified such an effect.

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Nine children dead after boat capsizes in India

AHMEDABAD, India: At least 10 people, including nine children, drowned when a boat capsized on Thursday (Jan 18) in western India, officials said, with a search on to find more of the missing. The incident happened in Gujarat state as students were travelling to a picnic organised by their school. DozensContinue Reading

Malaysia anti-graft agency serves Mahathir’s son notice to declare assets

PUTRAJAYA: The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) has served businessman Mirzan Mahathir a notice under Section 36(1)(b) of the MACC Act 2009, requiring him to declare all movable and immovable assets in his possession. In a statement on Thursday (Jan 18), MACC said the assets, whether within or outside the country, must be declared withinContinue Reading

Malaysia’s anti-graft agency orders Mahathir’s son to declare assets

PUTRAJAYA: Businessman Mirzan Mahathir, the son of former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, has been given 30 days to declare all his assets in the country and abroad.

It comes amid an investigation by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) into entities linked to the Pandora Papers and Panama Papers – leaked documents that reveal the hidden wealth of the rich and powerful around the world.

In a statement on Thursday (Jan 18), the MACC said it served Mirzan a notice to declare his assets after he was called to the agency’s headquarters on Wednesday to assist in an investigation. 

“The notice is a follow-up action from MACC’s investigation into the information from the Panama Papers, as well as his business activities involving the sale and purchase of government-linked companies (GLCs),” said the anti-graft agency.

The investigation is being conducted under the MACC Act, as well as the Anti-Money Laundering, Anti-Terrorism Financing, and Proceeds of Unlawful Activities Act.

MACC confirmed that it initiated the investigation in August 2022 as part of a probe into entities named in the Pandora Papers and Panama Papers reports.

The agency added that to date, it has called 10 witnesses to record their statements.

“The MACC is examining financial documents and asset ownership of the entities listed in those reports, and the investigation is still actively ongoing,” it said.

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