Philippines gunning for fast and massive military build-up – Asia Times

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MANILA – “We are not satisfied with minimum [deterrence capability alone]…movement is life, stagnation is death,” Colonel Micheal Logico, a top strategist at the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), recently told this reporter when asked about the country’s evolving defense strategy. “We [need] to elevate ourselves into a world-class armed forces,” he added.

Confronting a mighty China, the Philippines is undergoing a once-in-a-century defense buildup that if all goes to plan could transform it into a formidable military “middle power.” This year, top Philippine defense officials have announced their decision to pursue the acquisition of multiple submarines as part of a massive US$36 billion defense spending package.

“We do not only [need] one submarine, we need two or three [at least],” Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad, spokesperson of the Philippine Navy for the West Philippines, recently told media.  Under “Horizon Three”, the third phase of a 15-year-old defense modernization plan that began in 2012, the Philippines is also set to acquire modern fighter jets, warships and missile systems.

Next month, the Philippines is also set to receive India’s much-vaunted Brahmos supersonic missile system, which is seen as a likely precursor to even more sophisticated acquisitions in the future.

“It is a real game-changer because it brings the Philippines to the supersonic age. For the first time in our history, the Philippines will have three batteries of supersonic cruise missiles that have a speed of (Mach 2.8) or almost 3x (times) the speed of sound,” said National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya.

The Southeast Asian nation wants to develop its conventional and asymmetric military capabilities as it prepares for multiple contingencies in the region vis-à-vis China, including in both the hotly-contested South China Sea as well as over nearby Taiwan, which is only separated by the narrow Bashi Channel from northern Philippine provinces.

Now boasting Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy, the Philippines finally has more financial resources to invest in its long-neglected armed forces, which half a century ago were the envy of the region with state-of-the-art American weapons and fighter jets.

Well into the 1970s, the Philippines intimidated its smaller neighbors and unilaterally built military facilities in the Spratly group of islands.

At one point, the Richard Nixon administration worried that it could get dragged into conflict with other claimant states due to its mutual defense treaty with a self-aggrandizing ally, thus Washington’s long-term policy of strategic ambiguity on the South China Sea disputes.

At the height of hubris, the Philippines even contemplated the invasion of Malaysia in order to wrest back control of Sabah, an oil-rich island that once belonged to the Sultanate of Sulu, now part of the Philippine Republic. But chronic corruption, political instability and decades-long insurgencies in the restive island of Mindanao steadily corroded and spent the Philippines’ military capabilities.

A Philippine Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAV) during a landing exercise in Subic Freeport in Subic town, north of Manila on September 21, 2019. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Ted Aljibe

By the end of the 20th century, the Southeast Asian nation, among the world’s largest archipelagos, had among the smallest and most antiquated navies in the region. The Philippine Army, battling decades-long Muslim and communist insurgencies, gobbled up much of the AFP’s resources. For years, the Philippines didn’t even possess a single supersonic fighter jet.

Throughout the first decade of the 21st century, the Philippines served as a “second front” for the George W Bush administration’s “Global War on Terror”, further reinforcing gaps in Philippine military capabilities. But things began to change under President Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016), who implemented the Revised AFP Modernization Act, which sought to rapidly modernize the Philippine Navy and Air Force.

Within a few years, the Philippines had acquired modern fighters from South Korea under a $415.7 million package. The Philippine Navy (PN), meanwhile, acquired increasingly modern warships, most notably the BRP Gregorio Del Pilar (PF15) and BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PF16), Hamilton and Hero-class cutters worth up to $400 million.

Defense spending increased by 36% between 2004 and 2013, with the year 2015 seeing close to a 30% year-on-year increase.

To boost its ally’s defense modernization, Washington increased its Foreign Military Financing to the Philippines over the years. Other key partners such as Japan, meanwhile, provided multi-role patrol vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard while South Korea donated a Pohang-class corvette to PN.

Beyond minimum deterrence

Initially, the Philippines was hoping to simply achieve a “minimum credible defense” capability vis-a-vis rivals such as China.

Despite many hurdles and delays, however, the Southeast Asian nation’s military modernization campaign now aims at building a 21st-century armed forces en route to becoming a full-fledged “middle power.”

Last year, the Philippines overtook Vietnam to become the swiftest-growing economy in Southeast Asia, a trend that some expect to continue well into the future.

This places the Philippines on a path to becoming among the biggest economies in the region, thus generating more economic resources for a defense build-up.

Accordingly, the Philippines has pressed ahead with a revised 10-year modernization plan worth 2 trillion pesos ($35.62 billion) to finance the acquisition of state-of-the-art weapons including submarines.

“[W]e are embarking into what we call the ‘ReHorizoned 3’ capability enhancement and modernization program where the President recently approved an array of capabilities,” Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr said.

Gilberto Teodoro Jr sees new horizons for Philippine defense spending. Image: X Screengrab

“The Armed Forces will transition initially to enable itself to guarantee, as much as possible, Philippine corporations and those authorized by the Philippine environment the unimpeded and peaceful exploration and exploitation of all natural resources within our exclusive economic zone and other areas where we have jurisdiction,” he added.

With that signaling, several countries are jockeying to win multi-billion dollar defense contracts with the Philippines. The French, who are also exploring a visiting forces agreement-style deal with Manila, seem to be ahead in the line.

France’s Naval Group is offering two diesel-electric Scorpene-class submarines, similar to those operated by neighboring Malaysia.

 Navantia, a Spanish government-affiliated company, Navantia, is also in the running and has offered two S80-class Isaac Peral submarines with an estimated value of $1.7 billion. The Spanish have also offered to build a submarine base and other necessary logistics for the boats.

South Korea, already a major defense supplier to Manila, is also jostling for the sub deal. Hanwha Ocean (formerly known as DSME) is offering its Jang Bogo-III submarines, which boast guided-missile systems, advanced propulsion and lithium-ion battery technology that makes them particularly stealthy.

South Korea has already supplied the Philippines’ with its most advanced warships and fighter jets, making it a trusted partner amid the rival big-ticket bidding.

“For so long, the Philippine military has also been considered the weakest in our region. With the acquisition of [submarines], we will no longer be called the weakest,” National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya said in a mixture of English and Filipino when asked about the strategic implications of the submarine acquisition plans.

“We will now become a middle power in terms of our armed capabilities and that is a game-changer because that will increase our defense posture,” he added.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X, formerly Twitter, at @Richeydarian

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What is the state of Indonesia’s economy heading into elections?

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INDONESIA’S NICKEL POLICY

The nickel boom comes on the back of President Joko Widodo’s resource nationalism push.

Indonesia has the world’s biggest reserves of nickel but exports of the metal were banned in 2020 to capture more of their value. 

The so-called “commodity downstreaming”, where natural commodities are processed onshore, is a bid to establish more domestic smelters and produce more nickel products instead of just exporting raw nickel.

Nickel is used in the making of stainless steel or batteries.

Outgoing shipments of nickel products hit US$30 billion in 2022, more than 10 times what they were in 2013, boosted by demand for batteries used in electronic vehicles (EVs). 

JOKOWI’S LEGACY

The last decade saw numerous structural reforms and changes that improved the Indonesian economy, said Ms Pranjul Bhandari, chief economist of India and Indonesia at HSBC.

In addition to the nickel policy, Mr Jokowi’s onimbus law that aimed to attract investments and create jobs, as well as mega infrastructure projects, could become part of his legacy. 

Nusantara, the nation’s planned new capital in East Kalimantan, also attracted more than US$2.6 billion worth of investment last year.

Ms Bhandari said manifestos from the main parties contesting in the election look set to continue with the current administration’s economic policies.

“Almost all the presidential hopefuls are supportive of the downstreaming strategy. Many other laws, for example the omnibus law, has now been enshrined so those benefits will continue to see the light of the day,” she said.

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Commentary: Can Indonesia afford presidential candidates’ election promises?

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ECONOMY IN MEDIUM TO LONG TERM

As it stands, the candidates are optimistic that their policies will boost economic growth.

The annual GDP growth of 5.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent as targeted by Mr Anies for the 2025 to 2029 period is considered more realistic than the 6 per cent to 7 per cent target of Mr Prabowo and the 7.5 per cent to 8 per cent target of Mr Ganjar.

With historical precedence, a more realistic growth potential for Indonesia – based on its performance in the last decade – should be somewhere between 5.5 per cent and 6.0 per cent, especially since momentum seems to have stagnated after growing 6 per cent in 2012.

Global economic uncertainty, sluggish consumption and the low manufacturing capacity are some of the reasons why a higher growth target is difficult to achieve. These all call for a strategic structural transformation in the areas of improving overall productivity, revamping investment incentives, and prioritising fiscal expenditure in sectors that can bring about higher fiscal multipliers to the overall economy.

Nonetheless, it goes without saying that whoever is elected the new leader would want to see a progressive Indonesia with a stable and stronger economy.

The country’s long-term prospects are brighter than ever, with its young, digitally savvy population, abundance of natural resources, growing consumer spending and strategic location at the heart of Southeast Asia.

Indonesia gets to choose from three suitors on Valentine’s Day. We are confident that it will be a happy marriage, whomever she chooses.

Enrico Tanuwidjaja is ASEAN economist at UOB. His coverage focuses on Indonesia and Thailand.

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Indonesia’s fragile democracy faces badly flawed election – Asia Times

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In a record year for elections around the world, Indonesia’s February 14, 2024, vote is set to be one of the largest – and it will be one of the sternest tests for democracy’s progress.

Voters are expected to turn out in record numbers to choose some 20,000 national, provincial and district parliamentary representatives in what will be the world’s largest single-day election. Indonesia does not allow votes to be cast in advance.

While the scale of the election might seem to suggest a vibrant state of democracy in Indonesia, multiple factors – including a voting system susceptible to money politics and vote buying, alleged violations of election rules, the sheer number of down-ballot candidates and a cacophony of political messages on social media – make it difficult for voters to know what they are voting for and to effectively express their preferences.

Indonesia’s General Elections Commission reports that as many as 204 million voters are enrolled for the election, with about 114 million of them under 40 years of age. Polls say the top issues for younger voters include unaffordable basic goods, lack of employment opportunities, high poverty rates, expensive health services and poor education quality and service.

Meanwhile, there are concerns among many observers that Indonesia’s democracy has been backsliding in recent years.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy

As an expert on Indonesia’s international relations, I see how the election has implications far beyond the sprawling archipelago’s borders and comes at a crucial time.

Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy but faces getting caught in what economists call the middle-income trap, where its wages are too high but productivity too low to be competitive.

Middle-income trap. Chart: Springer Link

Indonesia also plays a crucial geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific. Its growing economic dependence on China and regional tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea have foreign policy observers and investors watching the election closely.

The US government sees Indonesia’s democracy as critical to regional stability and, at least for the last two decades, US-Indonesia relations have been built on shared values of democracy. Yet the election takes place against a backdrop of increasing democratic fragility.

Telltale signs include voter intimidation, government attempts to restrict critics and dissent in a show of executive overreach and changes in election laws to tilt the playing field toward favored candidates and so-called “nepo babies.”

Voters will choose among the three presidential candidates vying to be the next president: Prabowo Subianto, a former military officer and politician who is running for president for the third time; Ganjar Pranowo, a former governor of Central Java; and Anies Baswedan, an academic, and former culture and education minister and governor of Jakarta.

The three candidates running for president in Indonesia’s election in February 2024, Anies Baswedan (right), Prabowo Subianto (center) and Ganjar Pranowo (left) pose after the first presidential election debate at the General Elections Commission (KPU) office in Jakarta, December 12, 2023. Photo: Benar News / Eko Siswono Toyudho

The three candidates all promise to improve living standards, accelerate economic growth and infrastructure development, protect Indonesia’s resources against foreign exploitation and territorial sovereignty, promote environmental sustainability, advance human rights and democracy and eliminate corruption.

Despite their similar campaign talking points, there are some differences. On trade, for example, Subianto favors protectionism. Baswedan and Pranowo support a market-based approach and a balanced approach between protecting national industries and fostering foreign investment.

On one of the main issues of the day, the relocation of the capital city of Indonesia, Baswedan is the most critical of the candidates. He has vowed to review the project, but is unlikely to stop the move even if he wins since the plan is already formalized into law.

Massive spending and vote buying

The presence of many candidates – for example, there are 300 in Jakarta alone, including celebrities and cabinet ministers from 17 parties, vying for 21 seats in the House of Representatives – might suggest a vibrant democracy. However, the massive spending among them increases the risk of vote buying.

Furthermore, due to the current open-list proportional voting systems, candidates must compete against their party peers to win a seat. This system creates a fierce competition among candidates and increases the chance of vote buying.

Political scientist Burhanuddin Muhtadi argues that the problem affects 10% of voters and may be enough of an issue to sway the outcome of elections. In addition, celebrity candidates and those with large social media followings and deep pockets will find it easier to gain support.

A glut of campaign messaging does not lead to a more informed citizenry. Instead, citizens are heavily targeted by social media with populist overtones. And despite the digital bombardment, there is actually little information about party platforms, candidate track records or policy details – a problem when the sheer number of candidates is so large.

A row of campaign billboards featuring the presidential and parliamentary candidates installed on the side of the road. Photo: Twitter Screengrab / CNA / Danang Wisanggeni

Financial irregularities tied to election funding have also dogged parties across the political spectrum, leading the Association for Election and Democracy to cite a worrisome trend of citizens coming to see money politics as acceptable within a competitive democracy. The other challenge during the election campaign is the lack of accountability and transparency for campaign funding.

A slide toward autocracy

The decline in the quality of Indonesia’s democracy has been years in the making. A 2023 report by V-Dem Democracy Institute highlights several factors in its slide toward autocracy.

Limited freedom to publicly criticize the government is one reason, and numerous examples of intimidation and attacks on students, academics and activists who are critical of the administration have been documented.

Strategic election manipulation is another form of backsliding, encompassing a range of activity geared toward tilting the electoral playing field in favor of incumbents.

In a notable case, President Joko Widodo’s 36-year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, mayor of Solo, was cleared by a constitutional court ruling to run for vice president. The ruling, issued by a court led by the president’s brother, stated that the age restriction for presidential candidates that they should be at least 40 years old does not apply to those who have served as mayors, regents or governors. While Widodo claims not to have intervened in the ruling, there is a clear benefit to his family.

Electoral intimidation is a problem disproportionately affecting civil servants and people in poor neighborhoods. Power brokers have reportedly told some civil servants to vote for particular candidates, intimating that refusal will mean being asked to serve in some remote places in Indonesia.

People in areas with high poverty rates have allegedly received threats that cash transfer programs that would benefit the community will be revoked unless they vote for certain candidates.

All of this takes place as younger Indonesians look for change and better lives. Their hopes for a democratic future where issues important to them can be solved, as well as securing Indonesia’s role on the global stage as a democratic partner ensuring regional stability, ride on the outcome of the election.

Angguntari Ceria Sari is Lecturer in International Relations, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Dividing line between clean and corrupt countries – Asia Times

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Along with the World Bank’s Department of Institutional Integrity staff, I co-led an investigation into a billion dollar health job in Odisha, India, in 2008. Our goal was to dispel corruption-related rumors, and the journey took us to almost 50 institutions across the state.

What we found was startling: the system was heavily entwined with a web of corruption. It was shocking to learn firsthand how a sizable payment amount intended for the common good was diverted by politicians and bureaucrats.

The information we gathered painted a bleak portrait of an opaque system. When we informed the Odisha state of our findings, it shocked the entire administration.

A public outcry that reached the state legislature was greatly aided by the media in boosting our message. Lastly, the Odisha Vigilance Department received the situation from the government, which prompted some action.

The battle was far from above, though. I was subjected to pressure, threats, and abuse that served as a stark reminder of the people involved’s enormous power. It became painfully obvious that overcoming for forces, especially for a regular member, was no simple task.

My experience has shown that fighting corruption calls for unwavering commitment, the capacity to resist harassment, and a continuous pursuit of justice. Only then will we be able to destroy the sneaky sites that continue to plague our systems and make sure that public funds are used for everyone’s benefit. &nbsp,

Even though the concept of problem may have changed fifteen years later, the struggle for accountability has not changed. Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index ( CPI ) paints a depressing picture, showing that the systemic problems I saw still exist. Although the size and designs may have changed, the fight against corruption still requires bravery and tenacity.

According to the CPI- 23 statement, more than two-thirds of nations fall short of the standard for good governance. The Covid- 19 crisis served as a breeding ground for fraud, with asset distribution and emergency messages making it easy to commit crimes. Lack of protection made it possible for people to take advantage of important issues like health treatment and relief efforts.

Corruption’s hold on the world

Despite having typically lower rates of corruption, East Asia is concerned about condition capture and the undue influence of influential business groups. As Pakistan and Afghanistan struggle with political unrest, a shaky rule of law, and administrative problems that obstruct anti-corruption efforts, the nbsp says that South Asia is viewed as having both advantages and disadvantages.

This difficulty is echoed in Southeast Asia, where Singapore is leading the fight against corruption and Cambodia and Myanmar are battling organized crime and political meddling.

The dominance of the ruling parties and the abuse of resources present serious obstacles to accountability and transparency. Due to their limited resources, lax rule of law, propensity for widespread fraud, state capture, and crime, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East experience particularly difficult challenges. &nbsp,

Corrupt actors frequently employ advanced techniques to hide their wrongdoings, whereas governments with transparent procedures and constrained political clout may purposefully withhold information. Data set efforts can be hampered by inadequate legal frameworks, restricted media exposure, and the effect of criminal networks.

It is challenging to monitor changes and gauge improvement because corruption is so covert. Clarity is additionally hampered by poor governance, constrained data collection systems, and deliberate information suppression by regimes.

The absence of actual data continues to be a major limitation, even though the CPI- 2023 relies on professional assessments and surveys.

Who benefits from hiding problem information? is a vital question that this raises. What challenges exist in various nations? How can we get past these obstacles? What challenges exist in various nations? Data collection attempts may be hampered by &nbsp, inadequate legal frameworks, restricted media exposure, and the impact of judicial networks.

According to the review, nations with deteriorating democratic institutions and the rule of law typically have higher levels of corruption. This is due to the importance of political checks and balances and a powerful independent courts in preventing problem.

These crucial safeguards are in danger as dictatorship and democracy grow in many nations. The lack of a universally agreed-upon description of bribery makes measuring it even more difficult, adding to the difficulty. The creation of precise and achievement methods for data collection and study is hampered by this lack of standardization. &nbsp,

constructing roads rather than windows

Despite its drawbacks, the CPI acts as a crucial wake-up contact. It emphasizes the need for more reliable data collection strategies that use cutting-edge strategies like social media analysis and sophisticated data analysis to reveal hidden designs.

We can develop more precise instruments and take efficient action to combat corruption’s damaging effects on our planet by acknowledging the restrictions of the CPI and constantly working to solve them. This is about people’s life, not just statistics. This shed some light on the gloom and create a future devoid of fraud.

First and foremost, it’s important to strengthen political institutions, guarantee information access, and establish robust justice systems. For long-lasting change, encouraging people participation and giving citizens the ability to keep their governments accountable are also crucial.

Supporting separate studies, enhancing journalist protection, and promoting international cooperation are crucial actions. Utilizing cutting-edge methods like social media analysis and sophisticated data analysis may also reveal hidden styles.

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PM piles pressure on BoT

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To boost the economy, the government wants to reduce the 25bp level.

PM piles pressure on BoT
In October of last year, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput of the Bank of Thailand convened a meeting to discuss the 10,000-baht digital wallet flyer program at Government House. Chanat Katanyu is shown in the image.

Following Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s public call for a 25 basis point rate cut, pressure has been placed on the ( BoT ) monetary policy committee ( MPC ) of the Bank of Thailand today.

This highlights a consistent effort to persuade the BoT to lower interest rates, which the government views as an essential mechanism to revive an economy it believes is in crisis.

The MPC’s appointment on Wednesday and next week will take place in the midst of a policy interest rate that is at its highest level in ten years, remaining at 2.50 %. The government also plans to secure loans totaling 500 billion ringgit to finance its electric pocket handout plan.

A 25 basis point level reduce will support persons, no boost inflation, Mr. Srettha said in response to his call for the BoT to act on Tuesday.

He claimed that inflation has been below the lower end of the BoT’s goal range and bad for decades. So, he claimed that there would still be room for reduces even after the policy rate was reduced from 2.5 % to 2.25 percent.

The level can still be significantly reduced in the event of a crisis or other event. Why do n’t we get started right away? said the prime minister, who is also the minister of finance.

Mr. Srettha promised to speak with the government of the BoT about the situation.

” The Governmental Policy Office has been in regular touch with us. We speak in an open and non-aggressive way, the primary minister said.

In actuality, prices is not a problem. The issue is inflation. It’s time to lower interest rates right then. He continued,” I would like the MPC to consider the matter at its meeting on Wednesday.

Mr. Srettha accused the northern bank of harming the economy by maintaining an increased interest rate despite months of declining inflation in a post on X at the beginning of last month.

This came after his discourse in parliament on January 3 that suggested the central banks may consider risks to the country’s economy, including its precarious recovery, when determining monetary policy.

According to Mr. Srettha,” Monetary policy moving ahead should be in line with economic styles, tighter economic conditions, and the raise from government policies.”

A price reduction is” the way out of financial issues,” according to Premier Kittiratt Na-Ranong, who also noted that the central bank may support the administration’s policies.

Phumtham Wechayachai, the deputy prime minister and minister of commerce, stated that the government has been implementing macroeconomic policy to address the financial issues.

” The fiscal policy and the economic policy must go hand in hand.” I want to find out who is in charge of economic policy. What steps are they going to take? Do they intend to lower interest rates? In reference to the BoT, Mr. Phumtham said.

” The BoT and the authorities in charge of economic policy now bear responsibility. To solve issues, the two plans must be implemented simultaneously, he said.

BoT government Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput recently stated that state subsidies are to blame for the decline in consumer prices, despite the central bank’s indication that it does not see the need to strengthen rates any further. This indicates that the regulator may be hesitant to ease rates anytime soon.

Researchers anticipate that the MPC will prioritize balance and decide to leave the plan rate unchanged at the conference on Wednesday.

The BoT must be given the freedom to carry out its duties individually in order to preserve financial stability, according to Phornchanok Cumperayot Kouwenberg, a professor at Chulalongkorn University’s finance faculty.

The loans price reached a 10-year substantial of 2.5 % in September of last year when the MPC started raising prices in August 2022, increasing them by 0.25 percent items eight days.

In November 2023, the council stopped raising interest rates.

With an average of 3.25 % to 3.5 %, Thailand has the lowest policy rate in Southeast Asia.

Thailand’s inflation rate is even lower than that of its neighbors in the region.

Analysts anticipate that the MPC wo n’t lower its policy rate to stop capital outflow given the US Federal Reserve’s delay in starting rate reductions.

The overnight federal funds rate for the Federal Reserve is currently 5.5 %, which is a lot higher than the BoT’s 2.5 % policy rate.

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Govt preparing firearms amnesty to curb violence

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Published on February 6, 2024, at 15 :13.

Govt preparing firearms amnesty to curb violence
Authorities display the weapons that were seized during one of numerous prosecutions on the use and possession of firearms illegally. ( Image: Somchai Poomlard )

The Interior Ministry has been given the task of researching ways to spare those who hand over fraudulently obtained firearms from abuse.

Following Tuesday’s standard case meet, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin made the announcement.

He declared that the government would create an asylum to entice those who possess firearms illegally to give them up within a predetermined time frame in order to avoid punishment. This could take the form of a royal proclamation and would n’t violate any pertinent laws.

According to the prime minister, the action was taken to lessen murder in Thailand amid the widespread unlawful use of firearms.

Due to major crimes like the shootings in a Bangkok shopping mall that killed three people in October of last year and the Nong Bua Lam Phu hospital murder in 2022, people concern about firearms has increased recently.

According to the Ministry of Interior, there were more than 6 million weapon registered statewide as of 2023, but officials estimate there are up to 4 million illegal arms, many of which are smuggled into the country or come from countries that have been torn apart by conflict.

Another issue has been the so-called “welfare weapons” program, which enables authorities and other public officials to purchase inexpensive weapons. According to local gun dealers, many of those arms are resold for profit.

In 2017 and 2020, the US company Sig Sauer signed two significant contracts with the Royal Thai Police to provide 400,000 artillery as part of the program.

By way, Thailand is the world’s largest market for semiautomatic weapons produced in the US. According to a Bloomberg investigation, the United States exported 795 000 of these weapons to Thailand between 2005 and 2022, or 21.5 % of the 3.7 million total arms exported worldwide.

Gun ownership is large compared to some other Southeast Asian nations, but illegal firearm possession carries a prison sentence of up to 10 times and fines of as much as 20,000 baht.

Applicants for a weapons manager’s license must provide an actual justification for owning the weapon, such as for hunting or gathering. The person must be at least 20 years old and go through background checks that take into account criminal history, money, and personal conduct.

The government tightened gun ownership regulations in the wake of the Nong Bua Lam Phu nursery massacre in 2022, mandating routine mental health examinations and withdrawing licenses for registered users who allegedly behaved in a way that” threats world” and” creates conflict or causes turmoil.”

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US, EU sanctions aren’t working in Myanmar – Asia Times

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After a ten-year political pause, Myanmar’s defense regained control of the nation in February 2021, prompting the international community to turn to an established tactic: economic sanctions.

The coup prompted a number of nations, including the United States and member states of the European Union, to implement or restore trade embargoes and other economic sanctions against Myanmar’s defense.

The second anniversary of the defense revolution fell on February 1, 2024, when the US announced a new round of restrictions. It occurs as ethnic minority rebel groups and the Myanmar authorities are still engaged in a bloody civil war. However, sanctions have not yet steered the war in the direction of pro-democracy resistance groups or pushed the ruling generals up toward a political course.

Furthermore, as authorities on East and Southeast Asia and financial sanctions, we are aware that Myanmar’s past and our own studies indicate that financial penalties are unlikely to have that effect any time soon.

restrictions imposed on Myanmar currently

The sanctions imposed against Myanmar today are very similar to those put in place before 2010, when the nation started a procedure to restore democratic government. The US, EU, and other nations ‘ actions since 2021, which include targeted and sector-specific sanctions, are intended to undermine the military regime’s capacity to violently control the pro-democracy activity in the nation.

The defense of Myanmar is still able to purchase hardware despite restrictions. via Getty Images, STR/AFP

The people who are enforcing punishment also seem to be more aware than in earlier times of the possible harm they could cause to the Burmese people.

The punishment put in place following the coup in 2021 are more specific and intended to have an impact on the military government and its businesses. The fiscal measures were more extensive in earlier times and had an impact on the entire Myanmar economy.

This is intentional. Executive Order 14014, the legal base for US economic sanctions against Myanmar after 2021, forms the basis for a number of qualified measures, including limitations on people and companies involved in providing jet fuel to Myanmar’s air force.

The new US sanctions regime, which was enacted on February 11th, 2023, reflects changes in the Biden administration’s strategy to use economic sanctions to punish the generals of Myanmar rather than its citizens.

Additionally, the US has made it a priority to collaborate with foreign partners on enacting comparable restrictions as opposed to competing ones.

On December 10, 2021, which also happened to be Human Rights Day, proof of this coordination began to surface. The US was implementing a set of actions in collaboration with the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union.

For instance, many of the same sanctions imposed by the US, such as limitations on the import of defense and dual-use products, asset freezes, card and go restrictions, and restrictions on telecommunications equipment are included in the EU’s “restrictive measures,” which the bloc refers to as economic sanctions.

The Specially Designated Nationals record, a list of individuals with whom US residents and businesses are prohibited from conducting business, is another tool used by the US to impose precise restrictions. Military officials, businesspeople, and their communities are among the listed companies in Myanmar.

Instead of concentrating the nation’s economic suffering on the revolution and later repression of democracy campaigners, the idea is to concentrate it on specific people and organizations.

Previous restrictions against Myanmar

Past undoubtedly demonstrates that the US needed to modify its sanctions stance.

Some observers in Myanmar have long questioned the effectiveness of the previous sanctions regime, coming to the conclusion that it had little bearing on the regime’s decision to reestablish democracy. The democratic elections in Myanmar were actually a part of the army’s strategy, not the result of pressure from sanctions.

The fact that earlier sanctions intended imports from important economic sectors of Myanmar, like clothing and textiles, that were unrelated to the junta contributed to this skepticism about them. These financial sanctions hurt Myanmar’s personal businesses.

The most recent restrictions are directed at businesses that are affiliated with or owned by the military, such as Myanmar Pearl Enterprise, Myanmar Economic Corporation Limited, and Myanma Gems Enterprise.

However, some of the issues that plagued the prior restrictions are also present in the post-2021 ones.

They lack the sway of the UN, which has not demanded that Myanmar be sanctioned. This is in comparison to restrictions imposed on nations like North Korea and Iran that violate international law.

As permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia are unlikely to denounce or even censure Myanmar’s military leaders.

As a result, there has been disagreement within the global community regarding how to respond to Myanmar’s human rights violations and political complacency. While nations in East and Southeast Asia have maintained diplomatic and trade relations with the military authorities, European nations have chosen to remove Myanmar through focused trade and financial restrictions.

Additionally, there is a reason for Southeast Asian nations not to participate in any punishment program. Myanmar’s business relationships tend to be strongest within its place, as we demonstrate in our upcoming guide,” Trading with Pariahs.”

South Asian economic ties with Myanmar grew stronger during the first sanctions regime, which lasted from 1988 to 2015, as the nation’s trade with sanctions-imposing European states decreased.

Maintaining relationships with Myanmar offered East and Southeast Asian nations not just financial opportunities but also a plan for keeping an eye on and possibly improving Myanmar’s inside situation.

For instance, despite the junta’s refusal to permit political primaries and address human rights violations, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, admitted Myanmar in 1997. Instead of shunning Myanmar’s generals abroad, the companions of Myanmar preferred to try and take them in from the cold.

Additionally, despite Singapore’s recent announcement that it will halt arms transfers to Myanmar, East Asian nations and ASEAN members continue to refrain from sanctions Myanmar and favor wedding over isolation.

Is sanctions be effective?

There are reasons to think that US sanctions wo n’t be able to bring the government to its knees, despite the fact that they may harm the military. The likelihood of future leverage is likely limited by the unequal end of the United States ‘ earlier sanctions, which gave American businesses insufficient time to fully participate and engage in Myanmar’s market.

Men in uniform take part in a military parade.
Myanmar’s war is mired in civil war but is resisting pressure from sanctions. Photo: Aung Shine Oo via The Talk

Those nations with a lot of liquidity are unlikely to censure Myanmar. And this affects US or Western attempts to remove the nation.

The West’s restrictions on the business in jet fuel present a problem. The” Deadly Cargo” statement from Amnesty International in 2023 showed how, despite US sanctions on the gas, Myanmar’s military can still obtain trustworthy shipments of jet fuel.

The reason is that regional trading partners supply more than 95 % of Myanmar’s delicate petroleum oils, which are required for plane fuel. The majority of the jet fuel used by the Myanmar military since 2021 has come from China, Thailand, Singapore, and Russia, allowing it to carry on bombing activities all over the nation.

The effect of these sector-wide sanctions on jet fuel is still unknown, despite the US Treasury’s expansion of its sanctions to include both military and commercial aircraft.

The success and chances of success seem to be quite similar, despite the fact that the current US sanctions are very different from earlier attempts to force Myanmar’s generals.

Without significant attempts from those nations with the capacity to destroy their substantial economic interdependence, such as China, Japan, and ASEAN part states, the potential for alter in Myanmar seems unlikely given the lack of economic ties between it and nations outside its area.

ASEAN is aware of the deterioration of animal rights, and by refusing to give Myanmar its seat in the organization’s seat in 2026, it has shown that it recognizes the atrocities committed by the regime and supports civilians.

However, it is unlikely that the regional bloc will ever impose financial sanctions on Myanmar, raising more questions about the effectiveness of American sanctions in enhancing democracy and human rights.

Keith A. Preble teaches social science as a visiting assistant professor at Miami University, and Charmaine Willis is Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science at Skidmore College.

Under a Creative Commons license, this article is republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.

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