The dating guru to my girlfriends: I help them find love on dating apps, from editing profiles to ‘secondhand swiping’

On: February 13, 2024

When I was a 22-year-old on a university exchange programme in the United Kingdom, a friend shared that she wanted to start dating using MuzMatch (now called Muzz), a Muslim marriage and dating app.

She was single and not looking for anything particularly serious. It was also her first go at online dating, and she asked if I would be her sidekick on her journey. This meant helping her create her profile and being with her at the “swipe” stage. I knew how nervous and excited she was, so I said yes.

I helped her choose the photos for her profile and even suggested what she could include in her bio that would allow her personality and preferences to shine through. She only had two musts: We had to mention the K-pop band BTS somewhere, and her love for internet memes had to be clear.

We would Skype each other (see, this was before Zoom was ever a thing) and I’d say “left” or “right” as she went through the profiles of different men.

This is called “secondhand swiping”, where I decide who my friends might match with based on what I know about their preferences, and how well I know them.

She ended up meeting three guys, none of whom went beyond a simple dinner or walk in a park. The experience itself was fun and revealing for both of us, and it brought us closer as friends.

2. FIGURING OUT WHAT MY GIRLFRIENDS WANT AND WEEDING OUT THE RED FLAGS

Study sheds light on log coffins

By: Barkar Nash

On: February 10, 2024

In: South-East Asia

Ancient human DNA linked to modern ethnic groups, prehistoric migration

DNA decoding from 33 pieces of ancient human bones and teeth found at Iron Age Log Coffin sites in Mae Hong Son province is showing a link between prehistoric communities and modern ethnic groups in the region, according to an expert.

Rasmi Shoocongdej, a lecturer at the Faculty of Archaeology, Silpakorn University, and head of the Prehistoric Population and Cultural Dynamics in Highland Pang Mapha Project, said her team has been surveying a prehistoric cave community in Mae Hong Son since 1998 to learn more about prehistoric migrations in the area.

The highlands of Pang Mapha were a mortuary for ancient humans who lived in the area and they followed the “Log Coffin” culture. Large coffins carved from teak wood dating between 1,000 to 2,300 years ago have been discovered in about 40 caves and rock shelters in the province.

“While previous studies focused on the cultural development of Log Coffin-associated sites, the origins of the practice, connections with other wood coffin-using groups in Southeast Asia and the social structures in the region remained unstudied,” Prof Rasmi said.

“So, we present genome-wide data from 33 individuals from five Log Coffin culture sites to study genetic ancestry profiles and genetic interconnectedness,” she said.

The team worked closely with the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, to study DNA from 33 bones and teeth of ancient individuals found at the five sites, she said.

The results showed new connections between individuals from the five sites, she said, adding a report on the discovery was published in Nature Communication in December.

She said the discovery could create a better understanding of ethnic groups in the Asian region, including Thailand.

“It shows a migration route humans took during the prehistoric period,” she said.

Pang Mapha ancient humans shared a close DNA pattern with Neolithic people who lived in the Yangtze River Valley and Yellow River Valley in China, she said. It is believed that they migrated from China to the western part of the Salween River, she said. “Our research examines the relationship between humans and their environments in the seasonal tropics,” she said.

“Our [mission] is the exploration of the social structure of these prehistoric communities and explaining their connections with other pre-Neolithic and post-Neolithic groups in this region.”

Wibhu Kutanan, a scientist at Naresuan University, said analysing the DNA of ancient humans is challenging because bones and other genetic materials deteriorate over time.

However, the team was lucky to have found 33 “perfect” pieces out of the 66 that were sent to a lab in Germany for analysis, Assoc Prof Wibhu said.

The samples were good enough to run identical-by-descent block analysis, a method that helped trace complex biological patterns in the region, he said.

The team was among the first to use the method in archaeogenetics studies of Southeast Asia, he noted.

“This is a first in the Southeast Asia region to have a DNA test to identify individual relations in ancient times,” he said.

“The result is so amazing as we have found family relations, including twins, half-siblings, grandfathers and grandchildren.

“We have also seen great-grandfather relations between the Yappa Nhae II cave and the Tham Lod cave [in Mae Hong Son],” he said.

The study, he added, has also concluded that ancient Pang Mapha humans shared similar DNA patterns to Lava, Mon and Padong Karen ethnic groups.

The result is significant since log coffins were also used by prehistoric peoples in Southeast Asia, he said, noting that the project could help explain cultural dynamics and population interactions in Southeast Asia and other regions.

Prof Rasmi said the team will explore archaeological sites in the Central Plains provinces of Lop Buri and Suphan Buri, which are believed to have contained major prehistoric communities.

The study is an attempt at finding “the missing piece of a jigsaw puzzle” that could reshape understanding of ancient Thai culture from the Dvaravati era (6th–11th century) to the present Rattanakosin period.

Golriz Ghahraman: New Zealand MP resigns following shoplifting allegations

By: Marcus Ching

On: January 16, 2024

In: Asia

By Kathryn Armstrong

BBC News

A New Zealand MP has resigned following multiple allegations of shoplifting, which police are investigating.

Golriz Ghahraman, of the Green Party, is alleged to have stolen three times from two clothing stores – one in Auckland and the other in Wellington.

Ms Ghahraman said stress relating to her work led her to “act in ways that are completely out of character”.

“I have let down a lot of people and I am very sorry,” she added.

The former United Nations human rights lawyer made history in 2017 by becoming the first refugee to be sworn into the New Zealand government. She once held the party’s justice portfolio,

She fled Iran as a child with her family, who were all granted political asylum in New Zealand.

Ms Ghahraman’s resignation on Tuesday comes after CCTV footage emerged showing her allegedly taking a designer handbag from an Auckland boutique.

The 42-year-old, who has not been charged with any crime, said in a statement her actions had “fallen short” of the high standards of behaviour the public expect from elected representatives.

“It’s not a behaviour I can explain because it’s not rational in any way, and after medical evaluation, I understand I’m not well,” she said, adding that she did not want to make excuses for herself.

“The mental health professional I see says my recent behaviour is consistent with recent events giving rise to extreme stress response, and relating to previously unrecognised trauma.”

Responding to her resignation, Green Party co-leader James Shaw said that Ms Ghahraman had been subject to “pretty much continuous threats of sexual violence, physical violence, death threats since the day she was elected to Parliament”.

“That has added a higher level of stress than is experienced by most members of parliament,” he said.

“There have been police investigations into those threats almost the entire time that she has been a member of parliament, and so obviously if you’re living with that level of threat in what is already quite a stressful situation then there are going to be consequences for that”.

Fellow Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson said it was right that Ms Ghahraman resigned but that it was clear she was in distress and would continue to receive their support.

“We have seen the conversation over the past years, especially over the particular treatment of women with public profiles, and in addition, the particular treatment of women of colour with public profiles,” said Ms Davidson.

General Tsoâs chicken to bento bowls: A food guide to Taiwan politics

By: Marcus Ching

On: January 6, 2024

In: Asia

Poultry of General Tsoat Peng's Gourmet and Banquet

by Joy Chang and Grace Tsoi

Taiwanese BBC World Service

As Taiwanese restaurant Aeles stuffs meat into grain dumplings and wraps them in two different types of regional leaves, she says,” I wanted to find out who I am through meals.”

Aeles ‘ tribe, the Rukai, who have lived in these mountains of south-eastern Taiwan for years, reveres millet dumplings, also known as abai.

The foods of Taiwan’s indigenous nations was nearly impossible to find outside of the areas when the 61-year-old was growing up.

But as Taiwan’s personality develops, that has been altering, frequently in rebellion of Chinese assertions. Additionally, local restaurants like Aeles want to guarantee that their food is served on the disk.

With an vote approaching, Taiwan’s “roots” are once more under scrutiny. China views the political area as a piece of land it will eventually reclaim. However, surveys indicate that many Chinese perceive themselves as unique.

Foreign Patriots who escaped Mao Zedong’s Socialist forces in 1949 still reside on the island. However, they were n’t the first to show up.

Every influx of visitors brought their own food, always altering the Taiwanese table and producing recognizable, wildly popular dishes. The now-famous American dish General Tso’s poultry was created in Taiwan.

The region’s catching rich food today serves as a perfect primer on its contentious politics.

Aeles Lrawbalrate at her restaurant Dawana

Body pork and smoked meat

In Taipei’s great class, Aeles was the only native student.

She detested it because the other students, the majority of whom were of Chinese descent, frequently teased her about having black skin. She claims that they referred to me as “black charm.”

She claims that her ancestors were compelled to cultivate territory in Taiwan by Japanese colonizers. Additionally, they were forbidden from speaking their mother tongue under the totalitarian law of China’s Patriots, which persisted into the 1980s. A fire that practically destroyed her tribe when she was a child forced many of them to look for work in places.

She did not want to leave when she went home for the holidays. She devoted a lot of her time to cooking. Finally, 40 years ago, she started her own restaurant and began serving food to her tribe on land they had long since inhabited.

Dawana is hidden away in the sleepy town of Jhihben, which is well-known for its warm waters.

Aeles claims that she used the cafe as a means of returning home. ” I did n’t see it as a way for me to make money, but rather as an opportunity to maintain my tribe and share my food with others.”

Body pork and smoked meat honour the Rukai’s hunting culture on her menu. And a cheesecake tinged with the flavour of betel leaves nods to outside influence.

Aeles is not by himself. Akame, one of Taiwan’s most coveted restaurants, is three hours ‘ drive away and is located on Rukai land as well. It has been referred to as southern Taiwan’s “most obscure appointment” and calls itself a present grill; the Rukai term for it is akame.

Alex Peng, the chef and owner, claims that he wanted to combine the delectable simplicity of his people’s dishes with lessons from Chinese, Italian, and French eating, including local pineapples served with a mild mountain pepper-spiced ricotta and millet-topped bread, which acknowledge the importance of grains in indigenous career.

According to Mr. Peng, his wish was to open Akame, which he did in 2015 at the center of his clan in Pingtung County. Additionally, he enjoys the excitement of his customers about indigenous culture.

Every little thing he does is a tender homage to his character. The sheets and tubs are inscribed with the group’s orbs, and the knives are smaller types of Rukai hunting knives.

One of the few fine-dining aboriginal locations on the island is Akame.

After centuries of being excluded from discussions about the island’s history and its future, Aeles claims that “our whole culture is beginning to recover and find the true essence of Being Japanese.”

Since ancient times “ignores the indigenous populace- the 16 nations that make up 2.5 % of the region’s 23 million people,” according to Aleles, China claims that Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of it.

” All of you pursued us. Who do you believe to be Japanese in reality? This is where my community has usually resided.

Poultry of General Tso

The Kuomintang ( KMT ) or Nationalists ‘ rule is largely responsible for the claims made by the modern Chinese state over Taiwan.

General Tso’s poultry, which is now a well-known food worldwide, was created under their dictatorship.

According to Pei Wei, a seasoned columnist who has written two dish books,” completely speaking, it was created by an Hunan restaurant in Taiwan who was missing home.”

In the 1950s, Peng Chang-kuei, the mind dinner restaurant of the KMT, was tasked with preparing a meal for an American admiral who was visiting. Mr. Peng was from Hunan, a province in southeastern China that was once Mao’s home. Its spicy food, which makes extensive use of clean chillies, is well-known.

The now-familiar sweet-and-sour flavour of Poultry of General Tsowas meant to woo a foreigner’s taste buds, Mr Pei says.

” He deep-fried the meat and added everything spicy, the essential component of Hunan cuisine.” He therefore added recipes. ” A dish that went viral thanks to the combination of oyster sauce, rice liquor, and dark vinegar.”

Pei Wei presents his version of General Tso's chicken

However, Mr. Peng even made adjustments for the Chinese tongue, according to Mrs. Pei. He stirred in fruit and rock sugar to give the dish a sweetness that is unheard of in Hunan cuisine.

It’s difficult to determine how much of the food is from island China.

Chiang Kai-shek, the KMT’s supreme ruler, was a native of the state of Zhejiang. As a result, its gentle, southern cuisine became popular.

Soon after, more Chinese immigrants arrived, numerous from Hunan and Sichuan, another southeastern province renowned for the fiery, numbing flavors that its small but potent peppercorns produce.

Today, Taiwan’s streets are littered with advertisements for” Sichuan beef noodles” and” Wenzhou wantons.” These meals are n’t from these sites; rather, they are inspired concoctions that have a glimpse of their origins.

And Mr. Pei sees himself in this way:” I am Taiwanese.” He was born in Taiwan to parents from the northern province of Shandong.

The KMT is afraid of this attitude because it has been Taiwan’s main opposition party for the past eight years and is actively campaigning on the promise of improved relationships with Beijing in order to win the election next week.

egg of oysters

Foodies swarm the island’s markets at night to eat oysters omelettes, crispy-fried Taiwanese popcorn meat, braised pork grain, and overwhelmingly fermented” stiffy” tofu.

This is the cuisine of Taiwanese immigrants who arrived after the 17th centuries. The majority of them originated in Guangdong and Fujian, respectively.

However, the flavors they brought have become regional.

Consider the oyster egg, which is made by combining pan-fried oysters, vegetables, eggs, and sweet potatoes flour to create a sticky dish that is served with sweet chilli beans or soy sauce.

While Guangdong’s type is crisper and dipped in fish sauce, the Fujian edition uses less flour.

The flour receives a lot of attention in the Chinese version. According to food writer Liz Kao, Chinese citizens adore it despite the fact that it tastes a little thick and sticky.

Meals were a unique address when Ms. Kao was growing up because her parents, who was born in China but grew up in Hong Kong, did not enjoy them. Chinese culture in the area was “looked down upon.”

However, her family adored them because her family had long since moved to Taiwan from China. She would take her mother’s favorite treats alone.

Just in the middle of the 1990s, when Taiwan became a democracy and local tourism began to soar, were Japanese snacks given much attention.

In 1996, it held its second votes, which the KMT won. However, the Democratic Progressive Party ( DPP ) defeated the KMT in the presidential election in 2000, ousting it for the first time in 50 years.

For the first time, Japanese snacks were served at the state dinner. According to” Ms. Kao,” the status of snacks had improved. It demonstrated the strengthening of the native personality.

The plate of bento

Beijing’s claims to the area have been vehemently rejected by the DPP, which has been in charge for the past eight years.

Taiwan has clearly gotten closer to the US and Japan under this administration.

But from 1895 to 1945, Japan even served as its colonizer. Although there was repression and oppression, some people also believe that the Japanese were responsible for modernizing the island’s railway system. And in more recent years, view has also been influenced by Japan’s support for Taiwan and its opposition to China.

According to author Clarissa Wei, this tumultuous relationship has left its mark everyday. She continues by saying that her parents also refers to her as Okaasan in Japanese.

Taiwan’s bento dish, which is made up of rice piled high with braised meats, eggs, tofu, or vegetables, is a reference to the renowned Japanese cleanly packaged meals. And without a bento, no train ride that is full. It used to be required for lengthy station rides, but now it’s just a treat for the past.

According to Wei’s most new cookbook, little grainrice—which the Chinese first grew—is still the preferred variety. Japanese influence on Taiwanese food is described as” subtle but fundamental.”

The food was made sweeter by their sugars factories, which for many years supplied Japanese exports. and rice wine and soya sauce are made using Chinese, no Chinese, foods.

The Japanese disk is much more difficult to pin down due to this jumble of flavors and influences, but it has so far managed to stay together.

Food is” the most delicate medium for forging a common personality in Taiwan,” according to Ms. Kao.

Related Subjects

More information about this tale

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Scams top list of cybercrimes in past year

By: Barkar Nash

On: December 30, 2023

In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED : 31 Dec 2023 at 04:44

The Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) has highlighted five types of cybercrimes running rampant in the past year, and is warning people to avoid being tricked online.

The first involves call centre scammers, who they say are always coming up with new tactics to deceive people.

Some impersonate state officials who use dubious phone numbers to threaten victims. Some also send SMS with a link to trick victims into giving access to their bank accounts, according to the CIB.

Another involves online shopping scammers who set up bogus retail websites to rip off victims. Some ask shoppers to transfer money online for goods they will never receive. In some cases, the goods shoppers do receive are fake or of low quality and are not what is advertised, according to the CIB.

Another type of scam involves a “hybrid method” where victims are lured into a relationship with a scammer before being asked to invest their money into a false investment scheme. Victims are often left defrauded, the CIB said.

Romance scammers create fake profiles on dating websites to lure victims or use social media to contact them. The scammers strike up relationships with victims to gain their trust before making up stories and asking for money.

There are also job offer scams targeting people seeking employment. Often, victims are deceived into giving money and revealing personal information. Some scammers tout high-paying jobs but ask victims to pay up-front fees. Victims are promised high-paying jobs abroad but they must first pay expensive fees. However, they are never sent abroad as promised, the CIB said.

From March 1, last year to Dec 20, over 314,000 complaints were filed with the police. Of them, 160,819 involved shopping scams, 50,536 involved job scams, 43,193 involved loan scams, 32,501 involved investment scams and 27,620 involved call centre scams.

Singaporean dies in 30m fall off New York state park cliff

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 25, 2023

In: South-East Asia

SINGAPORE: A Singaporean woman died last Friday (Dec 22) after she lost her footing and fell 30 metres from a cliff in Minnewaska State Park Preserve in the US state of New York.

In a Facebook post on Dec 23, Mr Abdul Rauf Mohd Said said that medical staff tried to resuscitate his wife Nur Aisyah, also known as Ais Sarah, for nearly three hours but they were unsuccessful.

“She fell roughly 100 feet and did not survive. My heart is broken into pieces and I don’t know how to piece them back together,” he added. I’ve been crying non-stop for the last 12 hours and been really distraught by myself now.

“I’m sorry I didn’t manage to get to you in time sayang (dear in Malay).”

In response to queries, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) told CNA on Monday that MFA is rendering consular assistance, through the Singapore Consulate in New York, to the family of Ms Aisyah.

“MFA extends its deepest condolences to the bereaved family.”

According to their LinkedIn profiles, Mr Abdul Rauf and Ms Aisyah are the co-founders of Noble Sky International, a real estate investment company with a focus on the US market.

Mr Abdul Rauf wrote on Facebook on Monday that the autopsy had been completed and he was “fervently hoping for an early return of Ais’ body”.

He appealed for help, adding that “stringent regulations” require us to request an exception from Singapore Airlines to fly his wife’s remains back home on Tuesday morning’s flight, even without the completed paperwork.

In an earlier post, Mr Abdul Rauf also thanked three sisters who were at Minnewaska State Park and after hearing his cries, made their way down the cliff to reach his wife.

“Thank you once again to Julia and her sisters for being by my wife’s side during her final living moments.”

US media previously reported two deaths in Minnewaska State Park after hikers fell from height, with incidents in 2021 and 2015.

Why are there so many deepfakes of Bollywood actresses?

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 22, 2023

In: Asia

By Noor Nanji & Shruti Menon

BBC News

One Bollywood star is making obscene gestures to the camera, another is posing while scantily clad.

Except neither of those things actually happened.

They are the latest in a string of deepfake videos which have gone viral in recent weeks.

Rashmika Mandanna, Priyanka Chopra Jonas and Alia Bhatt are among the stars who have been targeted by such videos, in which their faces or voices were replaced with someone else’s.

Pictures are often taken from social media profiles and used without consent.

So what is behind the rise in Bollywood deepfakes?

Deepfakes have been around, and have targeted celebrities, for a long time.

“Hollywood has born the brunt of it so far,” AI expert Aarti Samani told the BBC, with actresses such as Natalie Portman and Emma Watson among the high-profile victims.

But she said recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have made it even easier to create fake audio and video of people.

“The tools have become so much more sophisticated over the past six months to a year, which explains why we are seeing more of this content in other countries,” Ms Samani said.

“Many tools are available now, which allow you to create realistic synthetic images at little or no cost, making it very accessible.”

Ms Samani said India also has some unique factors, including a large young population, heavy use of social media, and “fascination with Bollywood and obsession with celebrity culture”.

“This results in videos spreading quickly, magnifying the problem,” she added, saying that the motivating factor for creating such videos was twofold.

“Bollywood celebrity content makes an attractive clickbait, generating large ad revenue. There is also the possibility of selling data of people who engage with the content, unknown to them.”

‘Extremely scary’

Often, fake images are used for pornographic videos, but fake videos can be made of almost anything.

Recently, actress Mandanna, 27, had her face morphed on to an Instagram video, featuring another woman in a black bodysuit.

It went viral on social media, but a journalist at fact-checking platform Alt News reported that the video was a deepfake.

Mandanna called the incident “extremely scary” and urged people not to share such material.

A video of megastar Chopra Jonas also recently went viral. In this case, instead of changing her face, it was her voice that was substituted in a clip which promoted a brand, while also giving investment ideas.

Actress Bhatt was also affected with a video showing a woman, whose face looks like her, making various obscene gestures to the camera.

Other stars, including actress Katrina Kaif, have also been targeted. In her case, a picture from her film Tiger 3, showing her wearing a towel, was replaced with a different outfit, exposing more of her body.

It is not just Bollywood actresses who are affected – others have been targeted recently, including the Indian industrialist Ratan Tata, who had a deepfake video made of him, giving investment advice.

But the trend does seem to be affecting women in particular.

Research firm Sensity AI estimates that between 90% and 95% of all deepfakes are non-consensual porn. The vast majority of those target women.

“I find it terrifying,” said Ivana Bartoletti, global chief privacy officer at the Indian technology services and consulting company Wipro.

“For women, it’s particularly problematic as this media can be used to produce porn and violence images, and, as we all know, there is a market for this,” she added.

“This has always been an issue, it’s the speed and availability of these tools which is staggering now.”

Ms Samani agrees, saying the problem of deepfakes “is definitely worse for women”.

“Women’s worth is often equated with beauty standards, and female bodies are objectified,” she said.

“Deepfakes take this further. The non-consensual nature of deepfakes denies women the dignity and autonomy over the depiction of their bodies. It takes away the agency, and puts power in the hands of the perpetrators.”

Calls for action

As deepfake videos spread, there have been lots of calls for governments and tech companies to get a grip on such content.

India’s government, for its part, has been cracking down on deepfakes as it heads into a general election year.

After the video of Mandanna went viral, the country’s IT minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar spoke out against deepfakes, saying they were the “latest and even more dangerous and damaging form of misinformation and need to be dealt with by platforms”.

Under India’s IT rules, social media platforms have to ensure that “no misinformation is posted by any user”.

Platforms that do not comply could be taken to court under Indian law.

But Ms Bartoletti said the problem is much wider than just India, with countries around the world focused on tackling this issue.

“It’s not just Bollywood actors. Deepfakes are also targeting politicians, business people and others,” she said. “Many governments around the world have started to worry about the impact deepfakes can have on other things like democratic viability in elections.”

She said social media platforms needed to be held accountable, and should be proactively identifying and taking down deepfakes.

Ms Samani said male allyship also plays “a very important role” in tackling the problem.

“Victims are rightly raising concerns and calling for action, but fewer men are speaking against the issue,” she said.

“There needs to be more support from men.”

For more on the rise of deepfakes, tune in to BBC World Service’s What in the World on BBC Sounds.

China will stress test Asia as rarely before in 2024

By: Bolen C

On: December 21, 2023

In: Asia

Today’s extreme focus on the Bank of Japan is pivoting to how the People’s Bank of China plays the economic minefield that lies ahead in 2024.

Over the next 12 months, China will stress test Asian economies as rarely before. Beijing’s dueling priorities of stabilizing growth and reducing the frequency of boom/bust cycles will center on the actions of Governor Pan Gongsheng at PBOC headquarters.

Since taking the PBOC’s reins in July, Pan has been a study in monetary restraint. Even as the all-important property sector stumbles, Pan’s team has avoided channeling giant waves of liquidity into the market. Targeted blasts, yes. But Team Pan is foregoing the powerful easing moves that traders came to expect from previous PBOC leaders.

One reason is that the yuan is under growing pressure in global markets. Nothing would get China closer to this year’s 5% growth target faster than a lower exchange rate. Pan, though, is prioritizing yuan stability over stimulus in ways that continue to confound hedge funds betting on a weaker currency.

This patience is partly about China’s default-plagued property developers. Each drop in the yuan makes paying off offshore debt more expensive and challenging. It’s also about the PBOC’s determination not to reward bad behavior through moral hazard-encouraging bailouts.

Yet this balancing act may become more precarious as China’s domestic economy underperforms at the same time the external sector disappoints.

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng is speaking forthrightly about the Chinese economy. Image: Twitter Screengrab

This isn’t the only way China will stress test Asia’s economies. Writing in the latest Global Polarity Monitor newsletter, Asia Times’ David Goldman argues that China will engage in “limited, stylized probes of Asian governments’ pain threshold” in naval and military matters.

Questions about the region’s economic pain threshold vis-a-vis China’s slowdown loom large as 2024 approaches.

Though the US has beaten the odds and avoided a recession, this luck might be running out. The cumulative effects of 11 US Federal Reserve rate hikes in 18 months – and the highest Treasury debt yields in 17 years – are generating intensifying headwinds. Europe is facing a treacherous 2024 as the German economy contracts.

“The fiscal woes of the last month have clearly left their mark on the German economy, with the country’s most prominent leading indicator showing just how difficult it will be for the economy to bounce back,” says ING Bank economist Carsten Brzeski.

Japan, meanwhile, may already be in recession. Data since the economy’s 2.9% contraction in the July-September period offers little hope Japan isn’t ending 2024 in the red. The sense of fragility was buttressed by the Bank of Japan’s decision on Tuesday (December 19) to leave quantitative easing in place.

Following the no-action on rates announcement, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said it would be “inappropriate to think that we will rush to change our policy because the Fed is likely to move within the next three to six months.” That, he added, means the BOJ will “observe the situation for a little longer.”

To economist Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI, this means the BOJ will “methodically” prepare the ground for a first hike to exit negative rates rather than shock markets with a surprise exit, perhaps by April.

Yet that might depend more on how China fares in the months ahead than any other variable. As China’s economy loses altitude, “the case for early [BOJ] normalization is in jeopardy,” says Carlos Casanova, senior economist at Union Bancaire Privée.

As of now, the “conditions for [a] BOJ to pivot” away from QE “have not yet been met,” Casanova says. The first condition, he adds, is for 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to be at or slightly above the “new upper bound” of 1.0%. The second is for inflation to remain above the BOJ’s 2.0% target for an extended period. Both conditions remain uncertain.

Here, the BOJ isn’t operating in a vacuum. Economist Louis Gave at Gavekal Dragonomics notes that “assuming that the Fed is sounding dovish more for political reasons than any genuine concerns, the next few months should see a weaker US dollar.”

If, at the same time, Gave says, the “Bank of Japan eventually abandons its negative interest rate policies and China’s stimulus attempts start to gain a modicum of traction – and the People’s Bank of China has ramped up liquidity injections of late – we could end up with a setup that is bearish for long-dated bonds across OECD countries. Most, but especially, in the US.”

Among these central banking powers, the PBOC is a real wildcard in 2024. Odds are the BOJ will be forced to “taper” a bit in the months ahead, says Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. “It seems that mounting pressure from the public and private sectors has arisen.”

The Bank of Japan has a close eye on China’s economy. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Xie Zhengyi / Imaginechina

Wong notes that prominent Japan business lobby Keidanren head Masakazu Tokura is urging the BOJ to “normalize monetary policy as early as possible.” Intriguingly, Economy Minister Shindo attended the BOJ’s December 19 meeting as a representative from the Cabinet Office.

“It’s rare,” Wong says, “for a Cabinet minister to attend BOJ monetary policy meetings as such ‘attendee roles’ are usually assigned to deputy ministers. In the past meetings that cabinet ministers attended had resulted in major monetary policy changes such as the launch of the mega quantitative asset-buying program in April 2013.”

Headwinds from China are among the forces complicating BOJ rate decisions.

The same goes for Bank of Korea officials in Seoul. Sputtering mainland demand has caused an about-face in South Korean exports. In recent months, the BOK cited weak global demand, led by China’s slowdown, as depressing demand for tech goods, undermining the country’s outbound shipments.

Taking a longer-term perspective, economists are mulling what China’s downshift means for the region.

“The Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since the 1980s, gaining importance globally, particularly after the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001,” notes economist Sewon Hur at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

However, Hur notes, “the pace of growth is likely to slow as China’s economy matures because of its demographic structure and its increasing proximity to economic and technological frontiers.”

Additionally, Hur argues, “China may face more significant headwinds than would be typically expected. Notably, the country’s growth in total factor productivity — the efficiency of production — the largest contributor to China’s growth, has steadily declined since 2000. This trend is projected to continue over the next decade and beyond.”

As Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang get a handle on the economy’s troubles, Southeast Asia might come into its own as a regional growth engine, argues Eunice Tan, a credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

“This shift could constrain the medium-term upside for China’s issuers while improving those of issuers in India, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia,” Tan says.

S&P projects that China’s gross domestic product will slow to 4.6% by 2026 after growing at a 4.8% pace in 2025. By comparison, S&P sees India growing 7.0% by 2026, while Vietnam grows 6.8%, the Philippines expands 6.4% and Indonesia accelerates at a roughly 5% pace.

“Despite stimulus,” Tan says, “China’s property sector remains stressed. Constrained access to credit support and high corporate debt leverage are denting liquidity profiles, particularly of property developers and heavily indebted local government financing vehicles.”

At the same time, Tan adds, “we expect regional interest rates to likely stay high, given the US Federal Reserve will maintain a tight monetary policy to bring inflation within target. Our base case sees the US and Europe avoiding a recession in 2024, but the risk of a hard landing remains, which could affect Asia-Pacific’s exports to these regions.”

A porter walks on a bridge in Chongqing, China with new residential buildings in the background.
Photo: CNBC Screengrab / Zhang Peng / LightRocket / Getty Images

Making matters worse, China’s stumble could generate any number of downside surprises in the year ahead. The problem is that the government still hasn’t “addressed the most important issue: credit risk related to developers,” analysts at Macquarie Bank write in a report.

“Without a lender of last resort, a self-fulfilled confidence crisis could easily happen as falling sales and rising default risks reinforce each other,” Macquarie argues. “Indeed, some large developers have recently seen their credit risks rising rapidly.”

Economists at Nomura add that “China’s property sector has yet to bottom out. Markets appear to have been a bit too optimistic about the property stimulus policies over the past two months.”

If there’s any good news in the short run, write economists at Citigroup, Beijing’s “continued emphasis on supporting real estate financing and local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt resolution will continue [to help] prevent risks [from] escalating.”

Citi analysts note that “as fragile growth continues to call for an accommodative monetary environment” by the PBOC, “more supports are still needed to boost private sentiment.”

Last month, Moody’s threatened to cut China’s credit rating, highlighting concerns over the slow pace and cost of bailing out highly indebted local governments and state firms slammed by the property crisis.

The specter of an actual downgrade of the second-biggest economy only adds to the ways China will stress test Asia in the year ahead.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

Moody’s warns US, China it’s time to change their ways

By: Bolen C

On: December 7, 2023

In: Asia, Finance

Moody’s Investors Service is actively and innocently prodding the two largest bears in the world economy.

Experts at the agency threatened to remove Washington’s final AAA credit score next month. The increase in US 10 time bond yields to 17-year peaks was exacerbated by that volley.

Beijing was the next city to speak Moody growl this week. As Asia’s largest economy struggles with an economic slowdown and a worsening real estate crisis, Moody’S changed its outlook on the Chinese government of debt from” stable” to “negative” on Tuesday ( December 5 ).

A day later, Moody’s went even further by telegraphing potential rating steps against state-owned bank tycoons, numerous Foreign government-backed organizations funding system assignments, and even Hong Kong and Macau.

Threatening downgrades for the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Development Bank, and another behemoths will undoubtedly work if Moody’s is attempting to capture the attention of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It will also affect international investors who are concerned that Beijing is n’t moving quickly enough to contain contagion risks.

In general, the urge is to respond violently to these instructions. The group of US President Joe Biden carried out that action.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responded to Moody’s risk to drop by saying,” This is a choice I disagree with. Treasury securities continue to be the world’s top safe and liquid asset, and the American market is ultimately strong.

China is also pushing up. Issues of Moody about the aspirations of China’s economic development and fiscal sustainability are unnecessary, the Ministry of Finance of Xi stated on Tuesday, expressing its “dissatisfaction.”

Beijing added that the fallout from financial and property issues is” stable” and that it is working to “deepen measures to tackle risks and challenges.” However, it’s important to take into account the potential benefits of rating agencies like Moody making a timely call for stronger action against the two economical powers.

Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, disagrees that the country merits a upgrade. Asia Times files / AFP picture

The rules of economic gravity however apply, as Moody’s served as a helpful warning to Biden, Yellen, and Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, in the case of America.

Faith in the money is rapidly eroding as the US federal loan surpasses$ 33 trillion, Biden’s White House raises spending, and the Fed tightens its restrictions with the most vehemence in years.

The price increases in gold and cryptocurrencies are merely the most recent example of how traditional Bretton-Woods economic realities are clashing with contemporary disregard for the ways in which markets you influence perhaps the largest economies.

China, as well. The 24 members of the Communist Party’s Politburo will soon meet to discuss policy priorities and determine rise objectives for the upcoming year. Following that, a course may be charted by the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which will bring up municipal and central government leaders.

A development goal of around 5 % is anticipated for 2024, according to economists at JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, and other major investment bankers.

An optimistic growth target, according to Goldman Sachs economist Maggie Wei,” may help lessen the risk of China falling into a self-fulfilling cycle of melancholy expectations, more depressing growth, and reinforcing negative expectations.”

However, Moody’s is reminding group leaders that economic gravity is more difficult than that.

According to Moody’s, the government and larger public sector may help financially strapped regional and local governments and state-owned enterprises in China, according to its reasoning.

When Moody’s warns of “increased dangers related to functionally and consistently lower medium-term economic growth and the continued reduction of the property sector,” it also speaks for many.

However, it is implied in bold font between the lines that many international investors are n’t buying Xi’s promises to carry out audacious structural reforms. And how new stimulus increases are then “posing wide downside risks to China’s macroeconomic, economic, and institutional strength,” according to Moody.

Chinese President Xi Jinping claims that he now favors more expansion driven by the private sector. Online Screengrab image

China’s finance minister responded by saying that mainland growth is improving in the October–December quarter and that the Chinese economy will account for more than 30 % of global GDP in 2023. That would be consistent with predictions made by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF).

However, there is no timeline for taking action to grow&nbsp, better, rather than just faster, in China’s new rhetoric. According to scholar Lee Lu at Nomura Holdings, more stimulus may become necessary in the short term. We also think it’s too early to say the bottom, he says, “despite the numerous trigger actions announced recently.”

The good news is that Premier Li Qiang is thought to have received Xi’s approval to speed up efforts to reinvigorate the private sector. Li’s team unveiled a 25-point plan package next month to level playing fields and increase funding for private companies.

Eight economic officials and firm tanks are involved in the program, including the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, the People’s Bank of China, National Administration of Financial Regulation, China Securities Regulatory Commission, &nbsp, and National Development and Reform Commission.

The goal is to significantly raise the loan to private enterprise ratio in order to increase innovation and productivity and support more powerful supply chains. According to Li’s group, the goal is to guarantee” ongoing revenue solutions” for private businesses that refrain from “blindly stopping, suppressing, withdrawing or cutting off money.”

The NDRC stated this week that China “is comfortable and more capable of achieving long-term robust growth, and constantly bringing new impetus and options to the earth through China’s accelerated advancement.”

According to scholar Diana Choyleva of Enodo Economics,” Beijing is serious about getting funds flowing to the healthier components of the home field, whether it be personal or state-owned.” &nbsp, They are not satisfied with entrusting the choice to the businesses, which have discriminated against the private market for a number of factors.

Jumpstarting the creation of a high-yield bond market to expand China’s money markets universe is an essential component of the business. Theoretically, a lively and varied range of debt offerings would boost options for private sector financing and boost China’s appeal to investors.

These, Xi’s efforts to make the yuan more popular on international businesses are advantageous. As concerns about the US dollar rise, the battle is gaining momentum. Nothing could hasten that progress more quickly than swiftly and openly putting in place significant reforms.

Here is where Xi and his team needed to win back the confidence of international investors. It is important to note that The Moody’s news did n’t destroy Chinese assets.

The most significant lesson from the Moody’s statement, according to economists at advisory organization China Beige Book, is that their team takes years longer than the majority of China viewers to reach an obvious conclusion. Little brand-new around. Continue.

However, analysts at Citigroup Global Markets predict that in 2024, China’s investment-grade payment issues will be more alluring than those of US counterparts. Following the Moody’s information, Citi experts wrote,” The market has now priced this in to some extent, and China investment-grade has some price.”

In Chongqing, China, a butler is seen strolling along dingy bridges with brand-new residential properties in the distance. Photo: Zhang Peng, LightRocket, CNBC Screengrab, and Getty Images

As Beijing works to regulate real estate markets, Citi experts also cited China’s” stronger, but still fragile micro story.” Chinese money bonds with an investment class are currently up about 5.4 % in 2023.

According to Citi researchers,” China risks are primarily in the price.” The Chinese offshore credit market, which is regarded as an asset and money diversifier for regional investors, tends to do well in times of inland equity-market volatility.

Analysts ‘ concern that China’s time of raising GDP rates solely through stimulus and funding is over, however, is where Moody makes a point.

For starters, “remaining plan room may be limited, as we believe central authorities needs to balance moral liability problems when supporting local governments with substantial debt burdens,” according to scientist Samuel Kwok at Fitch Ratings.

Another is that the quality of mainland growth can only be improved by strong financial retooling that unlocks China’s longer-term growth potential. This trend toward trigger over reform explains why S&amp, P Global Ratings predicts that China will grow below 5 % into 2026.

According to S&amp and P record analyst Eunice Tan, China’s real estate market is still under stress despite stimulus. The cash patterns of property developers and heavily indebted regional government borrowing vehicles are being dented by limited access to credit assistance and higher corporate debt utilize.

As a result, S&amp, P’s Tan claims that the rise website for the Asia-Pacific is moving from China to South and Southeast Asia. Tan notes that this change may limit China’s lenders ‘ medium-term face while enhancing those of India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

China’s imports decreased by 0.6 %, despite data released on Thursday showing a 0.5 % increase in exports in November year over year. More policy supports are required to promote demand, according to a word from UBS analysts, and the data more dashed hopes of regaining China’s consumption-led economy.

According to OANDA researcher Kelvin Wong, “domestic need has remained weak in China despite continued revival efforts by policymakers via intended monetary and fiscal stimulus steps.”

Therefore, according to Wong,” It seems that the previous one-month treatment of transfer growth recorded in October is probably a “blip” and November’s bad year-on-year growth rate suggests the rolling twelve months of bad growth trend in imports remains intact.”

At the Horgos Port in the autonomous region of north China’s Xinjiang Uighur, business containers can be seen. Image: Xinhua

Global traders are anxiously anticipating the Politburo’s next chamber event as difficulties mount. This once-every-five-year program typically takes place in early December.

The fact that it has n’t been scheduled yet has led to rumors that Xi wants to address a number of pressing issues, such as rising local government debt, deflationary pressures, and real estate to record youth unemployment.

As a madly polarizing 2024 presidential election draws near, the US even faces significant obstacles. The US government’s estimated annualized loan interest payments have increased to the$ 1&nbsp, trillion level, among other things.

Shareholders are free to disregard the financial paths in Washington and Beijing that Moody’s, S&amp, P, and Fitch have to say. However, as payment prospects deteriorate, it is important to keep in mind that some observers, analysts, and investors are n’t buying the party line, despite Biden and Xi’s insistence that they are on top of their individual debt problems.

Following William Pesek on X, previously Twitter, at @WilliamPess

Meta takes down China-based network of thousands of fake accounts

By: Marcus Ching

On: November 30, 2023

In: Asia

Getty Images

By Mike Wendling

BBC News

Meta says it recently removed a network of thousands of fake and misleading accounts based in China.

The users posed as Americans and sought to spread polarising content about US politics and US-China relations.

Among the topics the network posted about were abortion, culture war issues and aid to Ukraine.

Meta did not link the profiles to Beijing officials, but it has seen an increase in such networks based in China ahead of the 2024 US elections.

China is now the third-biggest geographical source of such networks, the company said, behind Russia and Iran.

The recent takedowns were outlined in a quarterly threat report released on Thursday by the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

The China-based network included more than 4,700 accounts and used profile pictures and names copied from other users around the world.

The accounts shared and liked each other’s posts, and some of the content appeared to be taken directly from X, formerly Twitter.

In some cases the accounts copied and pasted verbatim posts from US politicians – both Republicans and Democrats – including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Reps Matt Gaetz and Jim Jordan, and others.

The network displayed no ideological consistency.

In examples released by Meta, an account in the China-based network reposted the words contained in a tweet earlier this year by Democrat Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia. She criticised Texas’s abortion laws and wrote: “Let’s remember – abortion is healthcare.”

But another account in the network copied-and-pasted a tweet from Republican Representative Ronny Jackson, who wrote: “Taxpayer dollars should NEVER fund travel for abortions.”

Meta’s report stated: “It’s unclear whether this approach was designed to amplify partisan tensions, build audiences among these politicians’ supporters, or to make fake accounts sharing authentic content appear more genuine.”

The company’s moderation rules forbid what Meta calls “co-ordinated inauthentic behaviour” – posts by groups of accounts that work together and use false identities to mislead other users.

Often the content shared by such networks is not false and references accurate news stories from major media outlets. But instead of being used for legitimate comment or debate, the posts are meant to manipulate public opinion, push division and make particular viewpoints seem more popular than they really are.

Meta said the large Chinese network was stopped before it took off among real users.

Ben Nimmo, who leads investigations into inauthentic behaviour on the company’s platforms, said such networks “still struggle to build audiences, but they’re a warning”.

“Foreign threat actors are attempting to reach people across the internet ahead of next year’s elections, and we need to remain alert.”

The company said it also discovered two smaller networks, one based in China and focusing on India and Tibet, and one based in Russia which posted primarily in English about the invasion of Ukraine and promoted Telegram channels.

Russian networks, which prompted the company to focus on inauthentic campaigns following the 2016 election, have increasingly focused on the war in Ukraine and have attempted to undermine international support for Kyiv, the report said.

Meta also noted that the US government stopped sharing information about foreign influence networks with the company in July, after a federal ruling as part of a legal case over the First Amendment that is now under consideration by the Supreme Court.

The case is part of a larger debate about over whether the US government works with tech companies to unduly restrict the free speech of social media users.

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