Tackle rising prices, govt told

Focus on welfare, not pay, experts say

Labour advocates are urging the new government to focus on protecting workers’ rights and finding a solution to control the prices of consumer goods before raising the minimum daily wage to 600 baht.

As part of its election campaign, the Pheu Thai Party pledged to raise the nation’s daily minimum wage to 600 baht, along with a 25,000-baht a month starting salary guarantee for graduate workers.

However, now that the party has formed a government, labour advocates are saying the administration needs to focus on improving access to welfare benefits as it settles down to work.

Chalee Loysoong, deputy chairman of the Thai Labour Solidarity Confederation, said the new government needs to work harder to protect workers’ rights and safeguard their general welfare. The government should focus more on controlling the prices of consumer goods to help low-income earners, he said.

Meanwhile, Wichai Narapaibul, manager of the Thai Labour Museum, said Pheu Thai’s wage policy might be difficult to implement.

He said it is more important to have a system that promotes improvements in labourers’ skills, which will in turn help them improve their quality of life.

As such, he said, the government should not focus on promoting Thailand as a source of cheap labour for basic industries, but as source of skilled labourers capable of manning advanced industries.

Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the new government needs to focus on reining in utility prices.

Employers have also voiced their concern about the minimum daily wage pledge, with some fearing they might not be able to sustain their businesses once the new standard comes into effect.

Direk, 71, who owns a stationary shop in Phimai district, Nakhon Ratchasima, said the policies benefit foreign migrant workers instead, as a significant chunk of Thailand’s daily labourers come from neighbouring countries.

“Those migrant workers send their earnings back to their families in their hometowns, so it will not help stimulate the economy,” Direk said.

He said the policy might lead to inflation, which would harm low-income earners even more.

Yupin, a restaurant owner in Pathum Thani said she fears the new daily minimum wage rate will add to her operating cost.

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No VAT hike for elderly savings

The Finance Ministry has denied it will raise the Value-Added Tax (VAT) by 3% to reserve more money for elderly savings.

Ministry spokesman Pornchai Theeravej said the ministry has no plan to increase VAT from the current 7% to 10%.

Mr Pornchai, who also directs the ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office, was responding to reports that a raise was being considered by the ministry to fund elderly savings.

On Friday, Worawan Plikhamin, deputy secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council, told a seminar that various models for elderly savings were being discussed at the ministry.

One model, proposed through the council and the Social Reform Committee, suggests raising VAT to 10% via a special law. The increment would go to an elderly fund to be used during retirement.

Ms Worawan said that normally, a VAT hike is bound to spark public opposition. However, it was believed that such a tax increase would boost elderly savings and eventually be accepted by the general public.

She said people would enjoy greater financial security in their old age while the government would also have a clear source of income to create a safety net for the elderly. Financial security will become increasingly vital in the future as the elderly population grows, she said.

Ms Worawan added the government’s proposed replacement of the universal welfare payment with the elderly allowance scheme should come with a clear set of criteria to establish who would be eligible.

The government has defended its new requirements for those receiving the elderly allowance, a move that replaces universal welfare payments for seniors. It said universal welfare payments were too great a burden on the state coffers and that some targeting is needed.

Ms Worawan said that before the criteria are introduced, the government must ensure they are suited to the needs of the elderly.

She said a survey of incomes earned by the elderly showed that 34% were retirees who still worked, including those below the poverty line.

Most had an income of less than 100,000 baht per year and relied on financial support from their children or the monthly old-age allowance, Ms Worawan said.

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Dad seeks justice for injured daughter

A father is demanding justice for his eighth-grade daughter who suffers from potentially life-threatening rhabdomyolysis following a disciplinary punishment ordered by her teacher in Roi Et.

The story of the girl, identified only as Lalida, from a local school in tambon Klang of Selaphum district, was first exposed on social media by popular webpage “Yak Dang Diew Jad Hai (Limelight Generator) Return Part 6”.

Sermvit Singha, 60, the girl’s father, said his daughter remains unwell as the condition, which involves the breakdown of injured skeletal muscle, has left her unable to walk and confined to her room at home.

He says Lalida was made to do 100 squat jumps by her physical education teacher last Monday as punishment for not bringing a badminton racquet to school.

The girl sustained a muscle injury during the jumps but did not tell her parents about it. She took a pain killer and went to school the next day.

However, by Thursday the pain had worsened and became intolerable. And when she finally told her parents about the injury they took her to hospital immediately.

Mr Sermvit also uploaded a doctor’s diagnosis confirming rhabdomyolysis and warning about potentially fatal complications that might arise from damage to her kidneys as a result.

Doctors advised the girl be admitted to hospital and placed under observation. However, the girl refused and asked to be cared for at home.

After the girl’s ordeal went viral, the school director and the PE teacher who ordered the punishment visited her at home and offered to pay the family some compensation in exchange for removing the original post.

The family remains concerned the girl’s illness might deteriorate further and Mr Sermvit has insisted he will not pick up any compensation from the school until Lalida is completely cured.

The father said he heard the PE teacher often disciplined other students in a similar way.

He criticised the teacher for ordering excessive punishment which he argued has no place in schools.

Mr Sermvit said the school management should consider whether to take disciplinary action against the teacher.

It was reported the school director has reprimanded the teacher already.

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Critics slam any Thaksin pardon

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra can seek a royal pardon, according to a corrections authority. However, opponents object to him making such a request due to his open lese majeste case.

Nastee Thongplad, chief of Bangkok Remand Prison, yesterday said Thaksin, like all convicts, has the right to seek a royal pardon but his relatives must present adequate reasons to back the request.

He said a petition for a royal pardon begins at the prison and is then forwarded to the Department of Corrections.

Afterwards, the petition will go to the Justice Ministry, the cabinet secretariat and the Office of His Majesty the King’s Principal Private Secretary, which will propose it for royal consideration, he said.

There is a form for applying for a royal pardon and a petitioner will need to present other documents to show the petitioner’s past contributions and medical treatment records, he said.

He said that up to 10 visitors will be allowed to see Thaksin at the Police General Hospital from today onwards.

Meanwhile, the Thakpakdee Party said it objects to Thaksin applying for a royal pardon because he has yet to be tried over his lese majeste case.

According to the party, the army accused Thaksin of violating Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lese majeste law.

The Criminal Court accepted the case for trial in 2015 and issued an arrest warrant for Thaksin but he did not appear at the court as ordered, the party said.

Thaksin returned to the country on Aug 22 following 15 years of self-imposed exile. The Supreme Court has ordered him to serve eight years in jail for his finalised legal cases.

During the first night of his stay at Bangkok Remand Prison he was transferred to the Police General Hospital. The management at the Police General Hospital have denied that authorities did Thaksin a favour or that he is getting special treatment.

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Thaksin's transfer raises eyebrows

Thaksin's transfer raises eyebrows
Weng: If ill, he must be treated

The Department of Corrections (DoC) has come under fire for treating former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra better than other prisoners in the system, with critics questioning whether the ex-premier is really ill.

Thaksin, 74, returned to Thailand last Tuesday following years of self-imposed exile abroad. He was sent to prison after the Supreme Court handed him an eight-year prison sentence over past convictions relating to his term as prime minister.

However, the DoC said he was transferred from Bangkok Remand Prison to Police General Hospital at 12.20am the next day, after complaining of chest pain, high blood pressure and low blood oxygen saturation.

Since then, Thaksin has been staying at an intermediate care unit (IMCU) on the 14th floor of the hospital’s Maha Bhumibol Rachanusorn 88 Phansa building.

A

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra waves to his supporters as he arrives at Don Muang Airport last Tuesday morning before being taken to prison. Pattarapong Chatpattarasill

 doctor at the Medical Correctional Institution who reviewed Thaksin’s medical records defended the transfer, saying the ex-premier needed to be placed under special observation given his past history of illnesses — which include ischemic cardiomyopathy, hypertension, pulmonary fibrosis and spondylosis.

As the Medical Correctional Institution lacked the necessary medical equipment to observe Thaksin’s health indicators, the doctor decided to transfer Thaksin to Police General Hospital for his safety.

The transfer to the Police General Hospital was done in accordance with the rules, according to the DoC.

Special privileges in jail?

The “VIP” treatment given to Thaksin has sparked widespread criticism about the fairness of the corrections system, with many saying Thai prisons reflect the nation’s deep social inequalities and in the eyes of the elite, are not meant for the wealthy.

Angkhana Neelapaijit, a former member of the National Human Rights Commission, said the DoC must not give Thaksin any special treatment, as other prisoners — especially those who come from a lower socio-economic background — may feel discriminated against.

“In a prison, all prisoners must receive equal treatment,” she said.

But the treatment Thaksin has received has led many to believe that he remains a VIP, even in prison.

“Other inmates question whether Thaksin will be required to follow prison rules, such as having a short haircut, eating meals with other prisoners, and participating in inmates’ activities,” Ms Angkhana said.

Only inmates who require urgent medical care should be allowed to stay at the prison’s hospital, she said.

Ms Angkhana said there are many elderly inmates who share Thaksin’s health conditions but are not given the same privileges he received.

“Former elderly inmates such as [former yellow-shirt co-leaders] Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang never received such privileges. Neither has Boonsong Teriyapirom [a former commerce minister who is now in jail].

“The incoming government, the Justice Ministry and the DoC must not act in a way that leads to suspicions of special privileges in prison,” Ms Angkhana said.

Prison reform

Rights activist Pornpen Kongkachornkiat said inmates who require medical care at hospital remain under strict surveillance.

“Some were chained up to their stretchers during transfer from prison to hospital guarded by prison officials. Thaksin may not have been treated like this, but it is obvious he is receiving preferential treatment,” Ms Pornpen said.

“Other inmates, particularly elderly ones, should also be allowed access to proper medical care they deserve,” she said.

Ms Pornpen also called on the incoming government to initiate prison reform and improve jail conditions to ensure better living conditions for inmates.

“Prisoners should not be dehumanised. They have the right to eat good food, and stay in proper conditions. There is the general perception that prisons are scary and overcrowded. Urgent reforms are needed to improve conditions in prisons, as well as their image,” Ms Pornpen said.

Former red-shirt leader Weng Tojirakarn said the public is keeping a close watch on the DoC’s treatment of Thaksin.

Dr Weng, who served around one year and a half in the prison stemming from political conflicts, said the department has guidelines for treating sick prisoners.

If Thaksin is indeed ill, he has the right to medical treatment in the hospital, Dr Weng said, adding the department should also give equal treatment to other prisoners.

Dr Weng pointed to the case of Ampon Tangnoppakul, who was sentenced to 20 years in jail on lese majeste charges, but died of cancer at the age of 71 after serving just two years at Bangkok Remand Prison in 2012.

His relatives claimed the medical services provided to older inmates were subpar.

‘Political illness?’

Political activist Srisuwan Janya said people are wondering whether Thaksin is really sick or is “politically sick”.

He said Thaksin received a red-carpet treatment from the moment he landed at Don Mueang airport until he was sent to jail and transferred to the Police General Hospital.

“Following his court appearance, he was escorted in an air-conditioned vehicle to Bangkok Remand Prison, escorted by an entourage of security officers, like a foreign leader on a state visit,” Mr Srisuwan said.

Srisuwan: Thaksin looked fine in Dubai

Mr Srisuwan also pointed out that Thaksin looked fine in Dubai, as evidenced by his daughter Paetongtarn’s social media posts, but immediately fell ill upon his return.

Daycha Siripatra, founder of Khaokwan Foundation, which promotes the use of medical cannabis, said on Facebook that it is impossible for other inmates to receive the same treatment as Thaksin does.

“It is not a surprise that many are speaking about against the double standard,” Mr Daycha said.

Tul Sittisomwong, a political activist, said the Police General Hospital should nurse Thaksin back to normal health as quickly possible and then send him back to the prison hospital.

He said the hospital should also ask for Thaksin and his family’s permission to reveal his medical condition and treatment plan to end any suspicion of preferential treatment.

Meanwhile, Nastee Thongplad, chief of Bangkok Remand Prison, said Thaksin’s family members will be permitted to visit him at hospital today as his quarantine period has ended. The visit will last about 30-40 minutes.

He said the department has limited the number of visitors to 10 per day.

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Thai Smile urged to carry on

Thai Smile will stop operating flights from Suvarnabhumi airport to Surat Thani airport on Oct 1, in a move that has prompted the provincial governor to ask the airline to reconsider its decision.

Surat Thani governor Witchawut Jinto yesterday said he has submitted a letter to Thai Smile, a Thai Airways affiliate, asking it to keep operating flights between Suvarnabhumi and Surat Thani airports.

He said many people have complained over Thai Smile’s plan to stop operating flights to the local airport on Oct 1, the first day of the high season.

“It’s disheartening that Thai Smile will stop flights between Suvarnabhumi and Surat Thani as it is a very popular route,” he said, adding that many tourists also go on to visit nearby provinces.

He said that during the first six months of this year, the airport served 695,682 passengers, yet last month alone there had been 114,404 passengers via 754 flights.

He said if Thai Smile discontinues the service, there will not be enough flights to serve passengers during the high season.

“We want Thai Smile to reconsider its policy and keep the service to Surat Thani,” he said.

The airline had announced a suspension of the service in 2009, but local businesses and people opposed the decision, prompting the airline to cancel the plan at the time.

Other airlines that fly from Suvarnabhumi airport to Surat Thai include Thai VietJet, while AirAsia, Nok Air and Thai Lion Air fly from Don Mueang airport.

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Pheu Thai 'not at disadvantage'

Bhumjaithai could take key interior job

Coalition leader Pheu Thai Party will remain in the driver’s seat despite offering the interior minister post to ally Bhumjaithai, according to an academic.

Details of the latest possible line-up of the new cabinet emerged yesterday, with Pheu Thai tipped to take control of key ministries handling economic affairs as the party aims to use them as a platform to implement its election pledges and boost its popularity.

According to the line-up, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnviralkul is tipped to serve as a deputy prime minister as well as interior minister while deputy Bhumjaithai leader Chada Thaiset may become a deputy interior minister.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told Bangkok Post that Pheu Thai can still retain an upper hand even if Bhumjaithai gets the post of interior minister.

“In the past, coalition leaders had to keep the post of interior minister for themselves. But this time, Pheu Thai chose to offer it to Bhumjaithai, but Pheu Thai is not at a disadvantage anyway.

“Pheu Thai has to focus on fixing economic woes as a priority. After the economic problems are fixed, the party can then turn its attention to preparing for the next election [with the help of the Interior Ministry and local organisations],” Mr Stithorn said.

Generally, the Interior Ministry is among the most coveted portfolios by parties as it controls tens of thousands of local organisations, which can be enlisted to help build political support.

Citing the latest line-up reported by the media, Mr Stithorn said Pheu Thai would take several cabinet seats available, including those handling economic affairs, such as the commerce, finance, tourism and sports portfolios.

“These ministries are crucial to reinvigorating the economy and boosting exports and tourism.

“Pheu Thai also needs to carry out one of its key election pledges, the 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme. If the scheme succeeds, Pheu Thai can win back its popularity,” Mr Stithorn said.

According to observers, Pheu Thai is seeking to solidify its bases and win back supporters who were upset after the party decided to team up with its former foes — the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.

Mr Stithorn also agreed with Pheu Thai’s decision to allocate the post of education minister as well as the post of higher education, science, research and innovation minister to its coalition ally.

Bhumjaithai is expected to get the two ministerial posts, according to the latest cabinet line-up which is still taking shape.

Mr Stithorn said Pheu Thai’s decision is intended to avoid pressure from those who are calling for education reform.

“Education reform will be a major issue and it will not be easy for the incoming ministers,” he said.

Mr Stithorn added that the allocation of cabinet seats among members of the Pheu Thai-led coalition is a win-win deal and bodes well for government stability.

He expects the new coalition government to fully serve its four-year term unless Pheu Thai makes critical mistakes. However, Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, a former election commissioner, held a different opinion.

On Facebook yesterday, he said Pheu Thai will lose opportunities if Bhumjaithai is allocated the interior portfolio.

“It will be the first time that a party that won 141 House seats agrees to offer the post of interior minister to a party with 71 seats in exchange for the post of transport minister,” he wrote.

Suriya Jungrungreangkit and Manaporn Charoensri of Pheu Thai are tipped to become transport minister and deputy transport minister respectively, according to the latest possible line-up.

Mr Somchai wrote that Pheu Thai would lose control of regional and local administration because the Interior Ministry oversees local officials, such as provincial governors, which was a big loss for any party.

Moreover, Pheu Thai would lose an opportunity to push for decentralisation, a key party policy, he wrote.

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Agnipath scheme: The pain of Nepal's Gurkhas over Indian army's new hiring plan

Armed personnel from Gorkha rifles take part in a Khukri (knife) dance as a part of India's 75th Independence Day celebrations at Gajoldoba Barrage area some 32 kms from Siliguri on August 15, 2021Getty Images

For decades, Nepal has allowed its ethnic Gurkha soldiers to join the Indian army under a special agreement. The practice came to an abrupt halt last year after India introduced a controversial new army hiring plan, straining ties between the two neighbouring countries. The BBC’s Anbarasan Ethirajan reports.

The Gurkhas, famed for their ferocity and bravery, have fought several wars over the decades for both the Indian and British armies.

They were first recruited by the British East India company in 1815 following a peace deal with Nepal.

After the end of colonial rule in 1947 a tripartite agreement between Nepal, India and Britain allowed Delhi and London to continue to recruit Gurkhas to their military.

But the arrangement with Delhi came to a halt last year after the Indian government announced Agnipath, a new hiring scheme for its soldiers.

Agnipath, or Path of Fire, hires soldiers on a fixed four-year term. Only a top performing 25% will be retained for India’s central security forces. The rest will be allowed to leave with a lumpsum amount of nearly $15,000 (£11,915) without pension or any other career benefits.

The rules also apply to the Gurkha soldiers who have historically served for much longer terms in both the Indian and British armies.

Nepalese Gurkha youths preparing for British army recruitment in Kathmandu

Surendra Phuyal

Nepali officials say they were taken aback by Delhi’s abrupt decision, as they were neither informed nor consulted on such a crucial change to the military recruitment programme.

“We have a policy that if there is any change made to a tripartite treaty, then it should be implemented through a political consensus,” Nepalese Foreign Minister NP Saud told the BBC, adding that the recruitment of Gurkhas would be postponed for now.

With most Nepalese political parties stoutly opposed to the change, it has become even more difficult for the current government to reach a consensus.

“We are not going to accept the new plan. If India is ready to revert back to the older Gurkha recruitment process, then it can be resumed,” Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, a senior leader of the main opposition Communist Party of Nepal (UML) told the BBC.

Prior to the new scheme, India on average recruited about 1,400 Nepali citizens into its Gurkha regiments every year.

There are about 35,000 Nepali Gurkhas currently serving in the Indian army, including in the geopolitically sensitive region of Indian-administered Kashmir and the northeastern parts of the country.

Delhi argues that the new hiring plan will reduce its army expenditure on ballooning salaries and pensions, which consume more than half of its defence budget. The short-term contracts will also lower the average age of its 1.3 million-strong armed forces.

Nepal's Foreign Minister NP Saud

Surendra Phuyal

For Nepal, this raises fears of a heightened risk from insurgents.

“There is a danger that a person with four years of military combat training can be recruited by any insurgent group in the country or even by foreign mercenaries,” said Prem Singh Basnyat, a Nepalese military historian and a retired army officer.

Nepal suffered heavily due to a decade-long armed rebellion by Maoists that ended in 2006. Thousands of people were killed during the unrest. The country says it is not in a position to offer employment to all those who return from India.

There have been calls in India as well to exempt the Nepali Gurkhas from the short-term contracts.

Maj Gen (Retd) Ashok Mehta, who served in the Indian Gurkha regiment, says the Agnipath scheme could complicate Delhi’s ties with Kathmandu.

“The Indian government abrogated its responsibility in following diplomatic niceties, especially with a country like Nepal with which it claims special and unique relationship,” he said.

Indian officials have hinted that if Gurkhas from Nepal do not take up short-term contracts, then the jobs could be distributed to others in India for the time being.

The BBC has reached out to India’s foreign ministry for comment.

Aneesh Thapa Magar, Nepalese young man who wants to join the Indian army but in permanent Commission

Surendra Phuyal

Experts say the move could further alienate Kathmandu, which already feels aggrieved by recent Indian actions.

Nepal was furious in 2019 when India published a map, including some of the areas claimed by Kathmandu in the western region, close to the border with China.

The diplomatic wrangle escalated after Nepal also published its own map including those disputed areas.

A few years before the map controversy, the ethnic Madhesi community in Nepal had blocked goods traffic from India as part of its 2015 protests for more rights. Though India denied it was behind the economic blockade, very few people in Nepal believed the denial.

In a playground outside Kathmandu, an instructor was making dozens of young men go through their paces as part of a training programme for the forthcoming Gurkha recruitment to the British army.

Some of them, like Aneesh Thapa Magar, 19, were hoping to join the Indian military – as many of his relatives did.

“The Agnipath programme is of no use to us. After four years, we will return home without knowing what to do next. That’s why I am now practising hard to get selected for the British army,” Mr Magar says.

Gurkha recruits pass out as they complete their military training at Helles Barracks at the Infantry Training Centre on November 16, 2017 in Catterick, England. T

Getty Images

The Gurkhas have a strong bond with the Indian military, and Gurkha regiments have become part of the culture of the Nepali hill communities.

There are about 120,000 Indian Gurkha veterans living in Nepal. Their pension and other benefits have contributed to the economy of the impoverished hill regions.

Despite the stiff opposition, not everyone is resistant to the new hiring scheme. Nepalese Indian Gurkha veterans like Laxmikant Pandey argue that the Agnipath scheme has its advantages and should not be rejected outright.

“The scheme offers a lumpsum amount at the end of the tenure and the Indian military experience will open up many other opportunities in Nepal and abroad,” he said.

The best option, he suggests, is to open up a dialogue with Delhi to get more concessions.

In the meantime, the first batch of Indian soldiers who signed up for the Agnipath scheme have joined the army, after completing their training courses in the first week of August.

Additional reporting by Kathmandu-based journalist Surendra Phuyal

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US policy toward China: three do’s and a don’t

Is war between the United States and China inevitable? This was the central question asked of panelists at the opening session of this year’s Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur. My answer was “No, it is not inevitable, but it is no longer unimaginable or as unlikely as it was a few short years ago, and the trends are going in the wrong direction.”

In the United States, there is growing bipartisan consensus on the need to be tougher on China and the upcoming presidential election season will make it difficult, if not impossible, for President Biden to appear soft in the face of Chinese provocation.

Chinese assertiveness toward Taiwan and most recently toward the Philippines, a formal US treaty ally, increases the prospects of an accidental (or deliberate) act spiraling out of control. Taiwan presidential election politics, and Beijing’s perceptions of its implications, add uncertainty.

As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) improves its capabilities to the point that it believes it is capable of taking Taiwan by force — I don’t think the PLA is there yet but more important is the PLA’s, or more accurately, Xi Jinping’s assessment of where they are — the possibility of PRC military action against Taiwan grows. So, tensions are unlikely to subside or the prospects of direct conflict  will remain.

Let me stress that I don’t believe either side is looking for a fight. I have described US China policy as involving four “Cs,” which I have further described as “three dos and a don’t.” The three dos are cooperate whenever possible, compete where appropriate, and confront when necessary. The fourth C, the don’t, is to avoid direct conflict until or unless it is thrust upon us.

The three C’s have been the essential elements of US China policy for decades. What’s changed has been the degree of emphasis behind each. Over a decade ago, the Obama administration, at least initially, stressed cooperation; it offered an outstretched hand to those who would unclench their fist. Today, the emphasis is on competition and confrontation. I can sum up the reason for the change in two words, and they are NOT Donald Trump.

President Trump pursued some policies, and adopted some approaches, that made matters worse, or at least more difficult. But, while Trump’s bedside manner may have been harsh, his diagnosis and prescription were correct: China has been gaming the system and has failed to honor its World Trade Organization commitments. What was (and remains) missing can be summed up in a single word: reciprocity.

Meanwhile, my two-word description explaining the US change in emphasis is “Xi Jinping.”

President Obama started with the right policy, but for the wrong China. His policy fit a China still governed by Deng Xiaoping Thought. China has abandoned Deng Xiaoping Thought. “Hide your strength and bide your time” has been replaced by “Wolf Warriors,” who remind China’s neighbors that China is a big country and they’re not.

Collective leadership and term/age limits to prevent another Mao have been replaced by the new Mao, who has de facto made himself “emperor for life.” State-owned enterprises have been revitalized rather than phased out. It doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it subscribes to Xi Jinping Thought.

‘It doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice’ – Deng Xioaping. Image: Twitter / Kai / @ThamKhaiMeng

To get rich is no longer glorious; it now results in a target being painted on your back. And “one country, two systems,” along with the legally binding international treaty that was supposed to ensure basic freedoms of the people of Hong Kong, is now null and void, a “scrap of paper,” as described by Beijing.

The odds of the people of Taiwan accepting such a formulation are now somewhat less than zero. Meanwhile, Taiwan Strait centerline agreements, aimed at preventing accidental conflict, have been rendered moot given near-daily PLA Air Force violations, not to mention missile and drone overflights of Taiwan-held territory.

PRC colleagues see things differently, of course. From Beijing’s perspective, Washington is the source of all problems. While I could easily draw up a list of what Washington should do better or differently, Chinese colleagues find themselves unable, or at least unwilling, to identify Chinese actions that are problematic. To do so would imply criticism of Xi Jinping, which would not be career-enhancing.

It’s difficult to find solutions if you cannot recognize that Chinese actions are a major part of the problem.

One case in point: China created man-made islands on top of disputed low-tide elevation reefs in the South China Sea and then illegally, by almost everyone’s interpretation of international law, declared 12-mile limits around them and warned ships and aircraft to stay away.

The United States (among others), intent on “flying and sailing anywhere allowed by international law,” refuses to comply.

My Chinese colleagues tell me that US freedom-of-navigation operations are the source of the problem, even though the root cause is Chinese territorial claims related to these illegal islands, which have been heavily fortified despite President Xi looking President Obama in the eye and telling him they would not be militarized.

A satellite image from work on a 3.1-km runway in disputed Spratlys Island in an artificial island at Mischief Reef in the South China Sea. Photo: Asia Times files / EyePress / Digital Globe

Conference organizers asked if cooperation on common interests could survive further bifurcation. Washington hopes so, hence the visit to Beijing of John Kerry, the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and Janet Yellen, the US Secretary of the Treasury, to talk about the broader economic relationship.

Still, despite a mutual desire for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula, Beijing refuses to take firm measures against Pyongyang as it repeatedly violates legally binding United Nations Security Council resolutions.

And, despite its professed commitment to non-interference, respect for sovereignty and no-first-use or threatened use of nuclear weapons, Beijing refuses to condemn Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” (which everyone else calls an invasion and act of war), while continuing to profess a “no limits” relationship.

Beijing also continues to reject military-to-military talks, essential to guard against accidental conflict, as well as US proposals for strategic nuclear discussions. Bifurcation seems well underway, despite Washington’s willingness, even eagerness, to talk.

The final question was “how can regional states navigate around these tensions?” The answer is “very carefully.”

Countries will do what’s in their perceived national interests. But they should ask themselves: If they fail to condemn the blatant Russian violation of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, what signal are they sending to other potential violators? Maps from the time of Peter the Great show Ukraine as part of the Russian Empire. All Central Asia, the so-called “Stans,” likewise were controlled by the Czars. Are they next?

Meanwhile, how different are Russian claims of sovereignty over Ukraine — not a “real country” according to Putin — from Chinese claims about nine dotted lines and the South China Sea?

Speaking of which, how many more decades will it take to develop a South China Sea Code of Conduct? Which countries are supporting ASEAN efforts to return democracy to Myanmar as opposed to empowering and arming the junta? If China follows Moscow’s example and tries to take Taiwan by force, what happens next? (Check the Pacific Forum website for an answer to the “If Taiwan Falls” question.)

The central question that should be asked today is: What’s more threatening to regional security over the long run, Washington’s “Cold War Mentality” (as Beijing defines US attempts to revitalize and strengthen its defensive alliances and partnerships) or Beijing’s “Middle Kingdom Mentality,” as exemplified by its Wolf Warrior diplomacy, economic coercion, and occasional diplomatic hostage-taking?

Neighbors should keep this question in mind as they figure out how to navigate these troubled waters.

Ralph Cossa ([email protected]) is WSD-Handa chair in peace studies and president emeritus at the Pacific Forum.

This article was originally published by Pacific Forum. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

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Tharman urges candidates to avoid politicising Presidential Election after opposition members endorse Tan Kin Lian

SINGAPORE: Presidential candidate Tharman Shanmugaratnam has urged fellow candidates to avoid politicising Presidential Elections after fellow candidate Tan Kin Lian was endorsed by Progress Singapore Party’s (PSP) chairman Dr Tan Cheng Bock. “Mr Tharman has consistently urged, with respect to all his fellow candidates, that we avoid politicising the Presidential Elections,” saidContinue Reading