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US defense contractor Lockheed Martin has revealed a new tailless manned tactical jet concept, signaling a potential significant shift in design and strategy for the US Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) sixth-generation fighter program.

Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works, known for its cutting-edge aerospace designs, revealed the concept while acknowledging it was not a definitive design for the program, The Warzone reported, noting it has a similar wing shape and planform to previous NGAD-related posts.

The Warzone mentions features including a “stinger” tail with a 2D exhaust, similar to the F-22 Raptor, suggesting a design focus on low observability and reduced infrared signature.

The concept aircraft’s large, faceted bulges on the fuselage raise questions about their function, possibly providing internal volume without compromising performance or stealth. The Warzone notes that the design’s huge canopy is striking and hints at a two-crew configuration.

The report says that particular feature may suggest a shift towards aircraft serving as forward battle management nodes, although it could also impact fuel and payload capacity. The Warzone says the concept showcases Lockheed Martin’s broader focus on next-generation unmanned systems and innovative aerospace solutions.

While there has yet to be a consensus on sixth-generation fighters’ defining features, it will likely feature new technologies such as machine learning, artificial intelligence, modular design, directed energy weapons, virtual and augmented reality and optionally manned capability.

The NGAD is set to replace the F-22 as the US Air Force’s premier fighter aircraft by the 2030s. While the F-22 is touted as one of the most capable fighters, issues such as high costs, limited airframe numbers, aging stealth technology and increasingly unfeasible upgrades might have made designing an all-new fighter more logical than keeping the late 1990s airframe aloft.

According to a June 2022 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, the NGAD might not be limited to a conventional fighter jet but could encompass various systems including manned, unmanned, optionally manned, cyber and electronic components.

The CRS report says the NGAD aims to redefine air dominance, moving away from traditional military airpower concepts and technologies. For example, the report says that the NGAD may not maneuver like a conventional fighter but could dominate airspace with directed energy weapons powered by multiple engines.

In terms of planned numbers, John Tirpak notes in a March 2023 Air & Space Forces Magazine article that the US Air Force plans to field 200 NGAD airframes alongside 1,000 Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) and request funds in the 2024 fiscal budget to finance these acquisitions.

Tirpak mentions that the number assumes two CCAs will be assigned for each NGAD and two for 300 F-35s. He says that as many as five CCAs could collaborate with each manned fighter, performing electronic warfare missions, suppressing enemy air defenses and providing air and ground protection and communications.

That force configuration belies the US approach to a perceived Chinese anti-access/area denial strategy (A2/AD) over the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

In an article this month for Business Insider, Christopher Woody notes that China’s military has spent decades building up its air defenses, emplacing formidable defenses on land and sea, and thus posing a severe problem for US forces.

Woody notes that China has built the world’s densest and most integrated air defense system along its east coast as part of a counter-intervention strategy against the US and its allies in a potential Taiwan conflict and intends to fight under that air defense umbrella.

He mentions that China’s surface-to-air missiles (SAM) aboard its Type 055 cruisers and Type 052D destroyers are more potent than any system currently fielded in Ukraine and that the same formidable systems on land are paired with jamming and electronic warfare capabilities.

In an August 2023 RAND article, Jim Mitre and Ylber Bajraktari note that China has a variety of sensors and weapon systems that can strike US and allied forces during a potential invasion of Taiwan. Mitre and Bajraktari note that the main challenge for the US and its allies is to disrupt China’s targeting capabilities.

In line with the NGAD and CCA programs, they note that large numbers of low-cost, unmanned drones such as the CCA would confuse China’s battlespace awareness and complicate its ability to identify high-value targets such as the NGAD.

They note that drones such as the CCA can act as a force multiplier, drawing Chinese forces to incorrect locations or causing them to expend advanced missiles on false targets.

Mitre and Bajraktari say that the algorithmic optimization of decoys could alert friendly units when they are under surveillance and inform the use of physical, electronic and cyber decoys as well as cover, camouflage and other force maneuvers.

In that direction, the CCA can extend NGAD sensor ranges, acting as advanced surveillance and targeting platforms in defended airspace. At the same time, the NGAD maintains electronic silence and launches standoff munitions from outside the range of enemy air defenses while staying undetected.

However, in an April 2023 War on the Rocks article, Maximilian Bremer and Kelly Grieco note that an offensive air dominance strategy entailing the penetration of heavily defended airspace may weaken US deterrence due to strong Chinese air defenses and the use of non-expendable air assets while running serious escalation risks.

Instead, Bremer and Greco advocate a defense air denial strategy limiting China’s ability to gain and exploit air superiority. Such a strategy, they note, economizes force by employing sufficiently large numbers of smaller, cheaper weapons in a distributed way, aiming to survive initial air and missile strikes and then keeping airspace contested.

They mention that an air denial strategy can dissuade an adversary from launching an amphibious invasion if the defender can sustain the attrition rates.

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As the world remains focused on hostilities in Gaza, the 28th meeting of the Conference of Parties on Climate Change – COP28 – is an important reminder that cooperation is the only means to mitigate human-caused calamity.

There’s plenty of commentary surrounding the fact that a fossil-fuel producer – the United Arab Emirates – is hosting COP28 next month. But in reality, the UAE, a capital-rich and multi-aligned middle power, has the credentials to bridge the climate-change gap between the developed and developing worlds.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries manage some US$4 trillion in assets through their sovereign wealth funds. This capital, together with technological prowess, could be crucial to achieving the expectations of the “Loss and Damage Fund,” which was established after COP27 in Egypt to assist “developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.”

So far, COP27’s ambition hasn’t borne fruit. A plan to raise $100 billion a year to help poor countries address climate change, funding that was scheduled to begin flowing in 2020, has met with little success. The delay is certain to be a point of contention between donors and potential beneficiaries at COP28.

This year’s climate talks are more than a gathering for environmental groups. They hold paramount importance for Middle Eastern countries, especially oil-producing states. For these nations, the fallout from climate change extends beyond economic considerations and energy export potential, deeply affecting the lives and livelihoods of their citizens, particularly in vital sectors such as agriculture, water and electricity.

Climate change is already affecting stability across the Middle East. In Libya, after a decade-long civil war, signs of recovery – increased oil production, for instance – were upended this September when a catastrophic cyclone submerged parts of the country, disrupting crucial seaports and jeopardizing oil exports. 

Similarly, in Iraq, government inadequacies in responding to floods have led to substantial casualties and ignited violence.

Even the outbreak of Syria’s civil war in 2011 was linked to a climatic disaster. The worst drought in nearly a millennium the year before devastated the livelihoods of 800,000 people and decimated the farming sector, fueling urban migration and unrest.

The climate crisis now has become a leading concern in a region traditionally fraught with security challenges.

Effects of climate change ignite violence, fuel poverty and inequality, and encourage migration, exacerbating regional instability. Food and water scarcity, high birth rates and consumption, relocation from hot zones, and threats to an agriculture sector employing a substantial portion of the population underscore the monumental challenges posed by the climate crisis. 

This upheaval threatens not just regional stability but global stability as well.

Despite historical and ongoing animosities, Middle Eastern nations must recognize and lead efforts against the shared threat of climate change. There is significant potential for regional cooperation in knowledge-sharing, disaster response strategies, and investment in renewable energy sources.

High-level cooperation

Cooperation on climate mitigation and adaptation could also help reduce tensions between superpowers. In their long-anticipated meeting in San Francisco, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to resume a working group on climate cooperation and pledged a major ramp-up of renewable energy.  

The two sides also agreed to “accelerate renewable energy deployment” in their economies until the end of 2030 to speed up “the substitution for coal, oil, and gas.” They also pledged to support efforts to “triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030.” 

The stakes at home are even higher, as cooperation on climate change and sustainability can help fight extremism and strengthen regional stability. The UAE’s growing engagement in climate mitigation in Africa exemplifies this. 

At the recent Africa Climate Summit, the UAE pledged $4.5 billion to expedite clean energy projects on the continent. Given the political upheaval and conflicts in many Muslim-majority countries in Africa, the UAE, as a proponent of moderate Islam, could play a pivotal role as a mediator and catalyst for change.

By moving beyond mere statements to substantial investments and project commitments, the UAE is in a strong position to prevent potential crises and champion stability, facilitating Africa’s sustainable growth.

With the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza still raging, the UAE has announced that it will establish three desalination plants in the Gaza Strip, producing 2.27 milli0n liters of drinking water a day, benefiting 300,000 people. Pledges like these are a reminder that beneath the carnage remain enduring challenges of water and food security, concerns that only can be addressed with long-term solutions.

The upcoming COP28 conference represents an urgent call to the international community to join forces in addressing converging threats. We must remember that stability and peace will require regional and trans-regional cooperation, even among foes. Our future hinges not just on the integrity of our borders but on the health of our shared planet. 

For lasting peace and security, all parties must prioritize cooperation over conflict, move beyond ideological and political divisions, and recognize our collective existence on an increasingly endangered planet.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

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