The stars seem to be aligning for a showdown at a China-Philippines disputed submerged reef in the sensitive South China Sea.
On August 5, a China Coast Guard vessel used a water cannon to prevent a Philippine government-charted boat escorted by its coast guard vessels from delivering supplies to its troops on Second Thomas Shoal.
Relations were already rattled by a previous incident in February in which a China Coast Guard vessel pointed a military-grade laser at the bridge of a Philippine Coast Guard vessel.
Although the August 5 incident was the latest in a series of similar incidents involving China and the Philippines, it stood out because of its brazenness and the US response thereto.
Indeed, it seemed as if China’s egregious behavior was a message to the Philippines that it had gone too far in moving militarily closer to the US.
Indeed, this one may have broken the back of the camel of restraint on all sides. At the least it has brought China, the Philippines and the US closer to a military clash.
Manila said it would soon try again to resupply its troops on a ship purposely run aground on the reef while escorted by its coast guard and possibly US assets.
As nationalism in the Philippines and China rises, something has to give. Analysts and policymakers are watching to see what happens.
Some context: In January 2013, the Philippines filed a complaint against China under the dispute settlement mechanism of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The July 12, 2016, international arbitration panel decision meant that the submerged shoal is part of the Philippines’ continental shelf and is within its exclusive economic zone.
Therefore the Philippines has exclusive sovereign rights to its resources. China rejected the ruling and vowed it will not abide by it. Again upping the ante, it has now demanded that the Philippines remove the ship from the shoal.
The decision also meant that no country can claim sovereignty over the submerged feature itself. Nevertheless, many Filipinos see it as a sovereignty issue, and so does China. Thus this dispute is rife with nationalism, and inaction could threaten the legitimacy of the ruling governments. China has now called for talks with the Philippines, but it seems that may be too little, too late.
The US has issued many statements supporting the Philippines in the South China Sea and warning China that its actions could invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). China has ignored these warnings.
China claimed that it fired the water cannon as a final warning to prevent a collision and that its actions were “professional, restrained and justifiable.”
Its statements justifying its actions leave no doubt that it claims the shoal and the waters nearby apparently on the basis of its nine-dash-line historic claim to all high-tide or low-tide Spratly features and the included waters as well.
As for its actions, it says it distinguishes between humanitarian supplies like food and water, which it allows, and construction materials for strengthening the dilapidated ship, which it does not allow.
To be clear, China’s claim and recent action at Second Thomas Shoal is a violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and thus contrary to the “existing international order” that the US leads and has vowed to enforce. Indeed, China’s actions are a clear “in your face” to the Philippines, the US and the existing so-called international rules.
Despite many US threats, it so far has not delivered on its rhetoric. In this case, the US responded with a more specific warning that it would back up the Philippines there.
It stated: “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of dangerous actions by the Coast Guard and maritime militia of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to obstruct an August 5 Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.
“Firing water cannons and employing unsafe blocking maneuvers, PRC ships interfered with the Philippines’ lawful exercise of high-seas freedom of navigation and jeopardized the safety of the Philippine vessels and crew.”
The commander of the US Indo-Pacific Fleet, Admiral Samuel Paparo, said that “the US is prepared to assist the Philippines if China interferes with Manila’s efforts to resupply its forces on its grounded naval ship on the Shoal.”
In a future incident, the Philippines may ask the US to get involved militarily. But the US has wiggle room in the MDT in that it may have different views on what constitutes an “armed attack” on a Philippine “government vessel” and what exactly is required of it under the MDT. However, if it prevaricates after its belligerent warnings in this incident, it will seem to be a toothless tiger.
Push is coming to shove. In addition to the Philippine vow to send another supply ship to the feature, the Philippines and the US say they are planning joint patrols this year, and the first could focus on Second Thomas Shoal.
The US has brought itself to the brink and left the next move in the hands of the Philippines or China. Warmongers are calling for it to back up its words with action.
Ambiguity can be a deterrent, but it carries its own risks of miscalculation. Ironically, by being ambiguous it may have encouraged the Philippine military to up the ante. It seems to be counting on the Philippines not to escalate the situation, or if it does, on China backing down because of the US threat.
It is time for the US to clarify to the Philippine government in no uncertain terms that if it purposely provokes China into an armed clash, it may be on its own. Nevertheless, the stars seem to be aligning for a showdown at Second Thomas Shoal.
An edited version of this piece appeared in the South China Morning Post.