Arrangements were agreed for another meeting between the leaders associated with Armenia and Azerbaijan, in Brussels upon Wednesday, through the great offices of Charles Michel, the president of the European Council.
This meeting could be a make-or-break encounter for the long-run future of Ruskies influence in the Southern Caucasus and, by extension, the Caspian Sea region as a whole and, by additional extension, Central Asian countries.
That is because Russian diplomacy has fallen by the wayside in the South Caucasus peace process since last December, whenever Armenian Prime Ressortchef (umgangssprachlich) Nikol Pashinyan plus Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev first met within Brussels .
Whereas The ussr had monopolized the mediation of connections between the two Southern Caucasus states for a year after the Nov 2020 conclusion from the Second Karabakh War (also called “the 44-day War” within Azerbaijan), this year the particular initiatives taken by europe have the momentum.
The development follows the bankruptcy of the Business for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE’s) Minsk Group after nearly 30 years of failure to resolve the conflict.
The two countries’ mouthpiece prime ministers would be to meet in Moscow the day before, on Tuesday, to discuss more progress in the delimitation of their common edge. (This is “delimitation” and not “demarcation” since the latter term describes the actual physical emplacement of markers, and typically takes years following a delimitation agreement. )
A further demo that Russia nevertheless holds significant influence in the region depends furthermore on Russia’s ability to persuade Pashinyan to announce unambiguously the particular timing for finishing the construction of the highway (and train connection) running throughout southern Armenia involving the main body associated with Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhchivan – the Zangezur Corridor – and a definitive date for its opening.
According to an Armenian government statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pashinyan agreed in May it turned out necessary to accelerate the experience of the Russian-Armenian-Azerbaijani expert-level commission, co-chaired on the inter-ministerial level, that has responsibility to apply the transport hyperlinks between the two nations. The problem is that this sort of declaration has been made just before.
It is reported that Aliyev will refer to a definitive clarification of the timetable regarding construction of the transport links (highway plus railroad) through the Zangezur Corridor. Zangezur could be the historical Azeri title for the region that will Armenia calls “Syunik” in the south from the country.
Armenia committed alone to the construction of this corridor in the Nov 2020 ceasefire agreement. The bilateral expert commission with Azerbaijan, tasked with viewing this through to conclusion, fulfilled in Moscow at the beginning of June for the first time in 6 months.
An Iranian-Azerbaijani agreement shocked standard Yerevan this year simply by putting Armenia upon notice that Azerbaijan is prepared to proceed with such a corridor through Iran, parallel to the Armenian border, instead of waiting for the particular Zangezur Corridor to become finished.
Indeed, Baku could nevertheless proceed with the path through Iran set up one through Armenia is completed. Then, Pokok could not be squeezed or pressured simply by any threatened close up of the Zangezur path, whether by Yerevan or by Moscow.
The particular Border Guard Program of Russia’s Federal government Security Service (FSB) is tasked with overseeing the security of the transport connections, according to the 2020 ceasefire agreement.
The Zangezur Corridor can also be in Russia’s interest. It would provide a train link between Armenia and Russia through Azerbaijan (there is not any such link by means of Georgia), as well as among Iran and The ussr (a link that will existed in Soviet times). At the same time, Armenia and Iran would get a rail link through Julfa (in Nakhchevan), which likewise existed during the Soviet era.
As Russia’s war towards Ukraine leads Traditional western strategists more and more to consider the feasibility of the “Intermarium” security strategy running in the Baltic Sea towards the Black Sea, from the standpoint of Western strategy, the Zangezur Corridor would similarly strengthen a security area between the Black Sea and the Caspian Ocean.
That is why The ussr, while constrained in order to favor the train link through the Zangezur Corridor, has evinced (like Iran) a relative lack of enthusiasm for the Kars-Tbilis-Baku train. Yet Russia’s war against Ukraine provides worldwide isolated Moscow, making East-West transit links circumventing Russia more essential.
There is nevertheless broader geo-economic importance to the Zangezur Corridor. Just a few days back, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, visiting Pokok, signed a series of paperwork the included agreement on intensifying bilateral relations , in particular by means of increased use of the Trans-Caspian International Trade Hallway (TITR).
Yet Russia is in a less than comfortable situation here. Although it is in Moscow’s curiosity that the Zangezur Hallway is constructed, for your reasons stated, the route will also augment Turkey’s logistical achieve into Central Asia via Azerbaijan as well as the TITR (also the “Middle Corridor”). It will augment Central Asia’s reach into European countries via the South Caucasus.
Not just Turkey but also the European Union is already looking to Azerbaijan with a view toward enhancing its logistical connections with Central Asia. This perspective is justified from the intensified bilateral and multilateral cooperation from the member-states of the Business of Turkic Says (OTS), which comprises Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Chicken and Uzbekistan.
That cooperation will be established within the “Turkic Planet Vision 2040” programmatic document, adopted at a recent OTS summit meeting. Indeed, just a few days ago, Tokayev completed his first diplomatic visit to Pokok. With Aliyev, he or she agreed upon a declaration on “strengthening strategic relations” and “deepening allied discussion. ”
This strategy seeks to achieve, for the countries concerned, increased freedom to move between the encroaching influences of China plus Russia.